Divining the Future: Visions for Community Networking

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Divining the Future Visions for Community
Networking

• Darlene Fichter
• University of the Saskatchewan Libraries
• November 30, 1999

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Taking a Look at the Future

• If you want to take a look at the future you ask
  someone with a lot of history. Now I may not look
  like an octogenarian, but if internet years are
  measured like dog years -- Im a really old dog.
• I started working on computer networks in 1986,
  community networks in 1992. Ive been President
  of the Saskatoon Free-Net for several years,
  worked to found Saskatchewan Association of
  Community Networks.
• My job at the university is completely
  networked and my web consulting company is 5
  years old.

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Outline

• Today Im going to share a few thoughts I have
  had recently about the Internet technologies,
  tell you a few stories. Well take a look at
• Take a look at the state of community
  networking and CAP sites today
• Do some crystal ball gazing together about
  tomorrow but first well see just how risky
  predictions can be by looking at some old
  quotes

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Lets start with

• "I think there is a world market for maybe five
  computers. (Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM,
  1943).
• "Computers in the future may weigh no more than
  1.5 tons." (Popular Mechanics, forecasting the
  relentless march of science, 1949).

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• "I have traveled the length and breadth of this
  country and talked with the best people, and I
  can assure you that data processing is a fad that
  won't last out the year.
• (The editor in charge of business books for
  Prentice Hall, 1957).
• "But what . . . is it good for?" (Engineer at the
  Advanced Computing Systems Division of IBM,
  1968, commenting on the microchip).
• There is no reason anyone would want a computer
  in their home.
• (Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of
  Digital Equipment Corp. 1977).

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1992 Asked what is the Internet?1999 Internet
is ubiquitous

• From 1990-1996 when a lot of community networks
  sprung to life
• Pioneers with the new technology, introducing it
  to your neighbors and friends
• focus was on information and communication
  connectedness - focusing globally
• In the fall of 1995, I remember driving to some
  of the first CAP organizing meetings -- one was
  in Humboldt - it was this time of year, snow on
  the road

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1999 (Statistics Canada)

• Canadian households continue to become more
  connected to the Internet for computer
  communications. At the same time, differences by
  income, education and age still exist in the use
  of these communications.
• More than 1/3 of Canadian households were
  connected in 1998 survey UP FROM 1/4 just one
  year before.

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Rural vs. Urban (Statistics Canada)

• Computer use and Internet use by members of rural
  households
• In 1997, 29 of rural households had one member
  who had used computer communications at least
  once (from any location).

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Ask ourselves what is a our role in 2000?

• Are we just about a connection - wires, bytes and
  bit of hardware?
• Were we ever just about a connection?
• How will we know when our job is finished?

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Trends

• community based (locally owned, developed,
  reflecting local priorities) - community spirit
• has everyone got a computer yet
• do they know how to use it (European community
  issues an Computer Drivers License) -
  information literacy and computer training -
  are we ready to talk to our computers - gadgets
  and will our interfaces understand us when we do.
  Beam me up Scotty? computer appliances,
  wearable computers, computers in your car (heck
  on your tractor or crop sprayer!)
• community online presence -- networks are about
  networking - wide range of sources from a
  variety of perspectives -- official as well as
  personal

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Weaknesses of community networking

• Everyone has discovered the internet and seems to
  be doing what we do for free - hard to get
  support. IRONIC / CONFUSING
• Internet allowed us to find all the good stuff
  out there, it also allowed a lot of folks out
  there to reach us (as a market)
• Volunteer efforts are hard to sustain
• Resistance to change -- ostrich mentality

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The Mall is Not Dead

• Just Last week there was a report that a mall in
  St. Louis has implemented new rules that prevent
  any store in the mall from having and promoting a
  complementary web store. Teresa Martin over at
  Project Cool has some very good things to say
  about this. Some excerpts
• The web isn't going away -- and no mall developer
  is going to be able to unplug the country. The
  management of this mall is out there showing the
  world that it is out of touch with shoppers, out
  of touch with its own tenants, and so insecure
  that it thinks it can't compete with its shadow.
  Gosh, there's a place with which I want to do
  business! Mall Rats Rejoice by Teresa A. Martin
  November 27, 1999, Future Focus

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The Future is Not about Barricading Ourselves in
the Past

• Even though weve literally taken down a Berlin
  Wall with this technology, there is no way to put
  it back up again
• Time of great change -- fundamental principles as
  we know them are shifting. Whoever heard of
  companies giving software away? Who ever thought
  a small group of developers would be a challenge
  to Microsoft?

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Our Challenge

• As early adopters of this technology our role as
  pathfinders for our communities is just as
  essential. Where we once explained bits and bytes
  and connection speeds, we now have to show ways
  to adapt, survive, understand and thrive by using
  these new technologies
• Globalization is a double edged sword -- we can
  reach you but you can reach us

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Why am I saying we need to change?

• For many years we heard how computers would save
  us work etc. but in reality they just papered
  over the old ways we did things. Where we used
  a typewriter, we now typed letter on a computer
  and so on. But some of the fundamental shifts in
  how we do business, how we communicate are
  happening. Its no accident that Canada Post is
  running a ad campaign saying to send write
  letters.
• For the first time the networked technologies are
  not about paving over the cow path but about
  actually transforming the paths and routes that
  are taken

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Our Focus

• Focus was on the bits and bytes because it had to
  be
• Now that the connectivity is in place we can
  really start to work
• Community networking is really about using the
  new technologies to help achieve the goals that
  we always wanted to achieve in our community
  --improve the economic, cultural, social and
  physical well-being of our community

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Next Steps

• More local relevant content
• More interaction
• Showing by example how to do things in a new
  way
• Build a community public space -- your town
  hall or public park or online cafe
• Make IT easy, make IT affordable to the small
  business

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New Opportunities

• First time access to many of the things is
  neutral irregardless of whether you are rural and
  urban.
• Waiting for the town that says lots for sale,
  sewer, water, T1 connections - knowledge workers
  welcome!

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Our job is not done, in fact our work is just
beginning.

• Together we are facing an incredible challenge
  with the changing economy. As community leaders
  it is both an exciting time and frightening time.

Its time to step as Certified Computer Driver
Instructors and take the lead.
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• "The illiterate of the 21st century will not be
  those who cannot read and write, but those who
  cannot learn, unlearn, and relearn."
• Author Alvin Toffler