Ingibjrg Jnsdttir

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Unusual ice conditions in Iceland during the
Winter of 2007
Unusual ice conditions in Iceland during the
Winter of 2007

• Ingibjörg Jónsdóttir
• Institute of Earth Sciences - University of
  Iceland
  
• VIII Meeting of the International
• Ice Charting Working Group
• Science Workshop

ESA ESRIN, Frascati Italy 22.-26.10. 2007
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• Why the Institute of Earth Sciences?
• Interest in remote sensing (teaching and
  research)
  
• The sea ice is one of the most interesting and
  yet challenging phenomena to study with remote
  sensing All sensors are used, the ice is a
  highly variable feature and changes fast, the
  environment is fairly difficult (dark, cold,
  usually not much ground truth data), information
  needs to get quickly to users - and in as few kb
  as possible...
• Increased traffic north of Iceland causes
  concern, there is pressure to decrease oil usage
  by the fishing fleet and recently (with 1/3 cut
  of the fishing quota last year) there is more
  interest in fish farming.
• The captains want to avoid all ice, so ice extent
  charts are of prime interest.
  
• Interest in ice monitoring and information needs
• How to get what kind of information to the
  users?
  
• Development of new products with the users.
• Privilege of participating in ice reconnaissance
  flight when needed and having good connection
  with the data users.
  
• Ground truth data reasonably easy to get.
• Sea-ice climatology
• Sea ice can greatly affect the climate in
  Iceland, and caused famine in the past. Even if
  this is not likely to happen in the next few
  years or decades, it is of historical interest to
  study the ice.
• This is the justification for me working on this
  and the work has been carried out for a few
  years.
  
• This year however, the service became almost
  operational since ice was causing trouble and the
  information was not available elsewhere. So
  basically, a small sea-ice centre evolved at the
  IES. It will continue as long as I can justify to
  myself spending so much time on it...

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So here is the result, a rather badly designed
web page, frequently updated with new sea-ice an
d other information (especially when the ice is
within Icelandic waters). All possible sources
are used, but by far the most important source is
the one provided by Leif Toudal and colleagues a
t the Danish National Space Center.
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Warning!

• Before we look at any of the charts...
• I have not adopted the IICWG "look" yet and ask
  you not to use it against me.
  
• classify according to sources and days
• The products are developed in close co-operation
  with the users, and are still changing since we
  are trying to combine the ice data with other
  information.
• We will get there though.

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Ice conditions in early 2007

• Blocking high pressure system south of Iceland
  caused SW winds in the Denmark Strait for weeks,
  pushing the ice towards the NW peninsula of
  Iceland.
• Various types of images were used to monitor the
  situation, most important were ENVISAT (300m)
  from www.seaice.dk, the Danish National Space
  Center.

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The atmospheric pressure in Tasiilaq, East
Greenland, is normally higher than
in Bolungarvík NW Iceland. When the pressure
difference is little or negative
(T higher than B) then ice is pushed quite
rapidly towards Iceland
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Once at the coast...

• The big ice band packed into one fjord, but much
  less got into other fjords.
  
• When flying over it the next day ice was forming
  in that fjord but had melted in the others.
  
• It is extremely unusual to have ice that far
  south at the NW peninsula, and did not happen in
  the "ice years" after 1965
  
• It is the second time in three years that unusual
  pressure patterns have brought ice towards
  Iceland. The ice did also reach the coasts in
  2005.

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Briefly on the Icelandic ice indices...
... since the cold period, or the "sea-ice years"
which started in 1965 began with relatively littl
e amount of ice in the Denmark Strait but unusual
pressure patterns.
Data resolution seasonal 1600-1850 monthly 185
0 onwards
purple bars - five year accumulative indices
blue bars - annual data
Astrid E.J. Ogilvie 1600-1850 Ingibjörg Jónsdótti
r 1850-2006
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So what is happening?

• I am not forecasting another period of ice years
  in Iceland like in 1965 as the overall amount of
  ice is less now.
  
• It is worrying to see that amount of multi year
  ice flowing out of the Arctic.
  
• The ice conditions are looking "promising" this
  year, as the ice is forming fast in the East
  Greenland Current and flowing rapidly south.

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Lot of opportunity to compare different data
sources.
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An example of data provided to the fishing fleet
.
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Discussion

• Extremely worrying situation in the Arctic
• Strange situation in Iceland - discussion of
  disappearing ice going on at the same time as ice
  information is needed badly.
  
• The IES will continue this work, though creating
  a more stable look to prevent people getting too
  confused.
  
• Increased focus on icebergs and fjord ice, along
  with further experiments with sea-ice forecast.

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Thank you for your attention!

• And specially
• Leif Toudal and co
• KSAT
• Dundee Satellite Receiving Station
• DMI