Kyoto Protocol Bill Menke, December 6, 2005

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Kyoto ProtocolBill Menke, December 6, 2005
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Summary

• Milestones
• 1972 Stockholm Declaration
• 1988 Intergovernmental Panel on
• Climate Change
• 1992 UN Framewor Convention on Climate Change
• 1997 Byrd-Hagel Resolution
• 1997 Kyoto Protocol
• 2005 Kyoto Rulebook
• Statistics
• Reactions

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United Nations Conference on the Human
EnvironmentStockholm Declaration of 1972
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Some Highlights

• protection and improvement of the human
  environment is a major issue
• developing countries must direct their efforts to
  development, bearing in mind their priorities and
  the need to safeguard and improve the environment
• natural growth of population continuously
  presents problems for the preservation of the
  environment

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Intergovernmental Panel onClimate
Changeestablished 1988joint program of
theWorld Meteorological Organization and the
United Nations Environment Programme
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Mandate

• Assess scientific, technical and socio- economic
  information relevant for the understanding of
  climate change, its potential impacts and options
  for adaptation and mitigation

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This group publishes the IPCC Reportrs that we
have used previously in this class
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United Nations FrameworkConvention on Climate
Change1992
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Highlight

• Ultimate objective stabilize greenhouse gas
  concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that
  would prevent dangerous interference with the
  climate system
• Commitments of states
• publish inventories of sources sinks
• formulate implement mitigation plans
• promote scientific exchanges
• United States is a signatory

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Byrd-Hagel ResolutionUS Senate,
1997(non-binding, but passed 95-0)

• The U.S. will not enter into an agreement to
  reduce greenhouse gas emissions that will be
  detrimental to the economy of the U.S.
• The U.S. will not enter into an agreement to
  reduce greenhouse gas emissions that does not
  require "meaningful involvement" on the part of
  developing nations.

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Kyoto Protocolto the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Changenegotiated in
1997open for signature in 1998came into force
February 16, 2005
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Highlights

• The Kyoto Protocol is a agreement under which
  industrialized countries will reduce their
  collective emissions of greenhouse gases by 5.2
  compared to the year 1990
• Compared to the emissions levels that would be
  expected by 2010 without the Protocol, this
  target represents a 29 cut.
• The goal is to lower overall emissions from six
  greenhouse gases - carbon dioxide, methane,
  nitrous oxide, sulfur hexafluoride, HFCs, and
  PFCs - calculated as an average over the
  five-year period of 2008-12.
• National targets range from 8 reductions for the
  European Union and some others to 7 for the US,
  6 for Japan, 0 for Russia, and permitted
  increases of 8 for Australia and 10 for
  Iceland.
• Sinks can be used to offset emission and emission
  credits can be traded.
• IPPC analyses used in assessments of sources and
  sinks

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Why 10 increase for Iceland?

• In October, 2000 I (B. Menke) participated in a
  discussion with President Grimsson of Iceland,
  who was visiting LDEO. He said that because of
  Icelands heavy reliance on geothermal and
  hydroelectric energy, its per-capita emissions
  were low. Even opening one new factory would
  represent an increase that would be hard to
  offset.

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US and Kyoto

• US signed in 1998 (Clinton) but withdrew in in
  2001
• "The Kyoto Protocol was fatally flawed in
  fundamental ways, but the process used to bring
  nations together to discuss our joint response to
  climate change is an important one
• George W. Bush
• June 11, 2001

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Bushs Criticisms

• emissions targets arbitrary and not based on
  science
• protocol's binding limits on emissions could harm
  the U.S. economy
• Several big emitter countries, such as China (the
  number 2 emitter) and India (number 6) are
  totally exempt.

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Kyoto Rule BookDecember 2, 2005

• Defines how each countrys emissions and sinks
  (e.g. reforestation) are accounted
• Developed countries can invest in other developed
  countries and earn carbon allowances
• Establishes the Clean Development Mechanism which
  allows developed countries to invest in
  sustainable development projects (excl. nukes) in
  developing countries

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Status and Projections
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Various Reactions to Kyoto
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Although every European country says that it
supports ratification of Kyoto, none have
explained what ratification means for their
citizens and their economies. If they were so
confident that these targets could be achieved at
low cost with no serious economic consequences,
they would be more forthcoming with their plans
and analyses. William O'Keefe Marshall Institute
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• The arguments for and against nuclear power have
  changed somewhat over the years. Finlands
  Minister of Trade and Industry, Ms Sinikka
  Mönkäre, who is a Social Democrat and a
  physician, argues for the building of a new
  nuclear power plant because of Finland's climate
  commitments under the Kyoto protocol, and the
  price and availability of energy.

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• Why Greenpeace supports Kyoto
• The Kyoto Protocol is the only global action plan
  against climate change. It's just the first step
  but the way forward is for countries to get on
  board and negotiate the next round of emissions
  reduction targets.
• From the GreenPeace website

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• The president's decision to pull out of the Kyoto
  Protocol is going to cost U.S. energy technology
  companies millions of dollars. The international
  agreement will create a multibillion dollar
  market in the developing world for renewable
  energy technologies, and the Germans and the
  Japanese, participants in Kyoto, are going to
  have a leg up in that market.
• Philip Clapp
• National Environment Trust

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• Independent of politics, going after reducing CO2
  makes real business sense because it usually
  means going after energy use.
• Kristen Zimmerman
• Spokesperson for
• General Motors Corporation

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• The expansion of palm oil production is one of
  the leading causes of rainforest destruction in
  south-east Asia. It is one of the most
  environmentally damaging commodities on the
  planet. Once again it appears we are trying to
  solve our environmental problems by dumping them
  in developing countries, where they have
  devastating effects on local people.
• Simon Counsell
• Rainforest Foundation
• due to a European Union laws requiring
  conventional fuels to be blended with biofuels