Title: MDGs and poverty in the Arab countries
1MDGs and poverty in the Arab countries
Poverty CoP Tunisia 17 June 2005 Prepared by
Adib Nehmeh Sub-regional Resource Facility for
Arab States SURF-AS UNDP
2Part oneMDGs, General considerations
3Two directional relationship
- MDGs are a strong political and advocacy tool.
Donors countries use it as a criteria to allocate
their international aid to developing counties.
The latter and the international community can
also use them in the other direction to monitor
the commitment of donors, and the compatibility
of international policies with MDGs. - This relationship must not be limited to aids
MDGs must be used as a tool to assess
international policies and as a tool for
multilateral and bilateral negotiations.
4Are MDGS adequate to measure development?
- The choice of MDGs and their indicators reflects
the priority given to LDCs by international
community. Their needs represented the most
urgent global priorities, and were intensively
present when identifying MDGs. Thats why many
countries of intermediate level of development
felt that MDGs does not adequately reflect their
national development context. - Although this feeling is justified, it does not
mean that MDGs are completely irrelevant. It
rather means that these countries have to deal
with them in a different way.
5From national targets to national strategy.
- MDGs do not constitute on their one a sufficient
tool for formulating national policies. They are
rather instrument for international comparison,
and defining general goals and priorities. - Regional and national actors have to formulate
correspondent regional and national targets, and
translate them into development strategies, plans
of action, and projects. - Intraregional cooperation plays a major role in
reaching MDGs, and so the tripartite partnership
between government, civil society and private
sector at the national level.
6About recipes
- MDGs are not recipes.
- Dealing smartly with MDGs Goals, Targets
Indicators, and uncovering their specific
significance for a specific national context, is
a necessary to identify priorities an design
interventions properly.
7Part twoMDGs based strategy
8MDG policy planningCore principles
- Nationally Owned
- Demand-Based
- Coordinated at the country level
- Evidence-Based
- Outcome-Based
- In fragile states and post-crisis countries,
this approach will be adapted to the local
institutional situation to promote stability.
9MDGs based strategy
- The MDGs are long-term objectives that need to be
embodied in the strategic priorities for national
development. - The alignment of the countrys strategic plan
with the MDG agenda involves one methodological
and four practical steps only one relates to MDG
costing and foreign aid.
10The 5 steps
- 1-Setting a vision where to situate MDGs vis a
vis the national development strategy. - 2- Tailoring the global targets to make them
context-sensitive. - 3- Setting intermediate targets for political
accountability. - 4- Translating the targets into specific programs
and policies for the next 2-3 years. - 5- Costing these programs and policies to inform
the annual budget and aid negotiations.
11Step one Setting a visionGeneral framework or
priorities?
- For LDCs, where poverty incidence is high, and
education and health indicators and basic
development are low, MDGs can constitute the
general framework for a national development
strategy. - For intermediate level countries, MDGs represent
an efficient tool to identify priorities within
the national development strategy, especially the
eradication of pockets of extreme poverty,
narrowing the regional or social disparities
regarding basic development indicators,
addressing environmental problems, and adopting
efficient pro-poor macro-economic policies.
12Step two Tailoring the global targets.
- Setting meaningful targets requires adaptation,
not mindless adoption of global targets. - The global targets were set on the premise that
global progress observed over the past 25 years
would continue for the next 25 years. - The question whether we are on-track to meeting
the MDGs by 2015 is valid only at the global
level. It cannot be asked for any specific region
or particular country. By using a uniform
yardstick, several success stories will be
reported as failures because they will not meet
the global benchmark. - The fear that country-specific targets will
undermine the global targets is unfounded. - (Quoted from a contribution by Jan Vandemoortele)
13Step three Setting intermediate targets.
- The MDG agenda must be linked to the political
agenda of todays government. Targets for 2015
are unlikely to register with the current
political leaders because the deadline will not
occur on their watch. Intermediate targets are
needed to generate and sustain momentum at the
country level, and to ensure political
accountability.
(Quoted from a contribution by Jan Vandemoortele)
14Step four Translate targets into 2-3 years
program
- Actionable propositions and specific reforms over
the next 2-3 years must be defined to realise the
intermediate targets. They range from immunising
children to iodising salt, training teachers and
building schools, drilling boreholes and planting
trees, treating HIV/Aids patients and
distributing bed nets, enforcing laws against
gender discrimination and child labour,
abolishing user fees for basic social services,
enlarging tax revenue in an equitable way,
restructuring budgetary spending in favour of the
poor, and sequencing home grown economic,
financial and trade policies. - (Quoted from a contribution by Jan Vandemoortele)
15Step five Costing to inform annual budget and
aid negotiations
- The price tag of the MDGs will critically depend
on strategic choices about pro-poor policies and
the delivery of basic social services. Generic
drugs, for instance, are less expensive than
brand-name medicines day schools are less costly
than boarding schools community-driven
initiatives are less pricey than institutional
approaches. Some interventions combine low cost
with high impact. Each strategic choice has a
different unit cost and a different cost
function. - Selecting the appropriate options will typically
reduce the cost of the MDG agenda. But only the
national stakeholders can do so within the
national context, and within the countrys own
development strategy and its macroeconomic and
sectoral policy frameworks. There cannot be an
one-size-fits-all costing exercise. - (Quoted from a contribution by Jan Vandemoortele)
16Part threeAbout poverty measurement
17 Low poverty incidence in AS
- International reports state that the poverty
incidence in the Arab region (measured at less
than 1/day-ppp per capita) varies between 2.5
and 3.5 of the total population. This is the
lowest rate among all regions of the world. - Most experts, policy makers and concerned
citizens are not convinced by this estimate. - This estimate sends the misleading message that
the fight against poverty is not a developmental
priority for the Arab states.
18Because..
- The 1/day measure is not relevant in general
as a poverty measure or poverty line for most
Arab countries that belong either to the high or
medium development/income countries. - of population getting less than the minimum
required daily calorie intake is higher than the
of population living at less than 1/day, what
means that the latter does not reflect extreme
poverty which is closely related to hunger.
19 and because
- When calculating the incidence of poverty
according to a poverty line of 2/day per capita,
the poverty figures rise dramatically from 2-3
to 30 This increase givers raises serious
questions about the relevance of the 1/day
poverty line for the region. - There are very important discrepancies between
Arab countries in terms of the level of income
and development, and socio-economic status. Using
the same poverty lines, the same tools and
methodologies to measure poverty are not standing
on a solid scientific basis. In this context,
regional aggregates are very misleading, as they
do not reflect the real situation individual
countries.
20International v/s national poverty lines
- The international poverty line of 1/day is meant
to facilitate international comparisons and for
ranking purposes. It is not meant to be a
substitute for national poverty lines, which are
more relevant for orienting the establishment of
national poverty or development policies.
21Issues related to national poverty lines
- Differences related to the definition of poverty
(income poverty, human poverty). - Differences of approaches and methods
statistical field survey, Participatory Poverty
Study, etc. - Differences related to the definition and
measurement of the national poverty lines
absolute or relative poverty line based on
income or expenditure what is the minimum
calorie intake adopted what are the components
of the food and non-food baskets of essential
goods how many national or regional poverty line
are going to be calculated?... - Problems related to the availability and quality
of data Some data may be missing, or data series
may be missing for certain years for some
indicators
22Regional comparison
- The harmonization of the definitions of poverty,
and measurement methodologies, and available
statistical data is a precondition to make
scientific and solid regional comparison. - Unfortunately this is not the case in the region.
Regional aggregates and poverty comparison
between countries on the bases of national
poverty lines, must be handled very carefully.
23Approach of Regional MDGR for Arab states
- Despite these weaknesses, the use of national
poverty lines is still more relevant option to
prepare the regional MDGR. Two main principles
were followed - The adoption of national poverty lines as stated
in national MDGRs - The adoption of the division of the Arab
countries into 4 sub-regions GCCs, Mashreq,
Maghreb and LDCS.
24Sub-regions of Arab states
- The Arab leagues comprises 22 Arab countries. The
regional MDGR proposes to classify them according
to 4 sub-regions - GCCs Bahrain, KSA, Kuwait, Qatar, UAE Oman (6
countries) - Mashreq Egypt, Palestine, Jordan, Iraq, Syria
Lebanon (6 countries) - Maghreb Algeria, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia (4
countries) - LDCs Comoros, Djibouti, Mauritania, Sudan,
Somalia, Yemen (6 countries)
25Available data by source
26Global sources Poverty Incidence ()1/day- -
By Sub-Region
27MDGRsPoverty incidence 1/day by sub-region
2000
28Global sources Poverty Incidence ()2/day- -
By Sub-Region
29Global Sources HPI () - By Sub-Region
30Global Sources HPI () - By Country
31Global sources Poverty Incidences ()- By
Sub-Region
32MGDrsPoverty Incidence () - 1/day- By country
33MDGRsNational PL by country 2000
34MDGRsNational PL by sub-region 2000
35MDGRsNational PL Trend by sub-region
36MDGRsNational PL Trend by country
37Global sourcesUnder 5 Underweight 99/03
38Global sourcesUnder 5 Underweight - trend
39Global sourcesUnder 5 Underweight by country
40Global sourcesMalnourished population ()- by
sub-region
41Global sourcesMalnourished population ()- tend
by sub-region
42Global sourcesMalnourished population ()- by
country
43Part three Tailoring targets and selecting
indicators(Highlights)
44How we deal with Goal one?
- Start by defining extreme poverty and poverty in
your specific county taking into consideration
the socio-economic characteristics - Look into the inter-linkages with other MDGs and
targets, - Adapt the goal and targets to national context,
- Set quantitative immediate and longer term
targets - Select the relevant indicators.
45Environment basic services
- TARGET 10.HALVE BY 2015 THE PROPORTION OF PEOPLE
WITHOUT SUSTAINABLE ACCESS TO SAFE DRINKING WATER
AND SANITATION - Indicators
- 30. Proportion of population with sustainable
access to an improved water source, urban and
rural - 31. Proportion of urban and rural population with
access to improved sanitation - It is combined natural resource management,
health and poverty issue. - The target can be revised according to national
context. The normal situation is that any
person must have access to water and sanitation
as part of its basic rights. The quantitative
target here is trying to set a realistic and
achievable objective considering the global
context. - In a country who have reached an acceptable level
of development, and suffers from disparities and
pockets of deprivation regarding these
services/rights the national target might be to
eradicate completely these pockets not halve
them. The same logic applies to the time frame.
46Environment slums and poverty?
- TARGET 11. BY 2020 TO HAVE ACHIEVED A SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENT IN THE LIVES OF AT LEAST 100 MILLION
SLUM DWELLERS - Indicators
- 32. Proportion of households with access to
secure tenure - This target is strongly linked to poverty. In
fact its draw the attention to the following - Not to limit our definition to poverty to
material basic needs, but to include rights and
governance issues such as land tenure. - To include indicators on the immediate
environment into the poverty measurement
methodologies.