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Arab Climate Resilience Initiative
First Regional Consultation Meeting
The Impacts Of Climate Change On ? Water
Resources Damascus, The Arab Republic of
Syria 15-16 September 2010.
Dr. Naif Abu-Lohom Prof. Dr. Abdulla Babaqi Water
Environment Centre (WEC), Sanaa
University Republic of Yemen
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Contents

• Background Information
• Yemens Climate Change Profile
• Challenges in Water Sector
• Scenarios of Climate Change Impact on water
  sector
• Main National Policies, Projects, Activities
  Undertaken to Address CC
• Recommendation to Mitigate and adopt with CC
  Impacts
• Opportunities for Interventions at Different
  Levels
• (Technical, Policy, Institutional, Support
  of Local Communities, etc)

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Background Information

• Yemen signed UNFCCC in 1992 and ratified it in
  May 1996.
• Ratified Kyoto Protocol in September 2004.
• Established CDM Committee in 2007.

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Yemen Climate Change Profile
UNESCO (1979), classified Yemen into 4 Climatic
Zones
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Yemen Climate Change Profile
Temperature Trend

• Historical data (since 1970) indicate Warming
  become greater for summer(0.2C/decade) than
  winter (0.15C/decade).
• According to IPCC report, Yemen is expected to
  warm by 3-4C by 2080s which is roughly 1.5 times
  the global mean response

Rainfall Variability In Yemen

• The average total annual precipitation recorded
  for about 100 years show variability but without
  an obvious and unpredictable trend
• The extreme events are increasingly becoming a
  source of concern
• (Hadramout Almahra Floods).

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Rainfall Variability In Sanaa City

• The Fig. depicts the spatial distribution of
  rainfall in Sanaa City measured at four stations
• It shows significant differences in total
  rainfall over a period Jan. July 2007

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Hadhramout Flood, 25th October, 2008

• The flooding comes after more than a full day of
  rain in Yemen, which normally receives only a few
  inches of rain per year.
• A flash floods have claimed the lives of more
  than 140 persons and left more than 20,000
  without shelter in the Hadramout and Maharah
  Governorates

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Vulnerable Sectors to Climate Change Impacts

• INC NAPA identified 5 main sectors vulnerable
  to climate change
• Impacts
• Water Resources
• Agriculture
• Coastal Zone
• Biodiversity
• Health and Tourism

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Challenges In Water Sector

• Increased water scarcity and reduced water
  quality
• Per capita annual water resources of only 120 m3
• 10 of regional average and 2 of global average
• Over-exploitation of GW (3-8 meters/year annual
  drop in most of the basins)
• Annual Abstraction in SB exceeds 4 times the
  recharge
• Irrigated area has expanded from 37,000 to about
  1,200,000 ha
• Agriculture use more than 90 of Water
  Resources
• Decrease Water Supply in most of the main cities
  (Sanaa, Taiz,Amran.)
• Increase water conflicts.
• Low irrigation water use efficiency (20-40)
• Institutional and implementation capacity
  challenges for groundwater management

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Water status in Yemen
Total renewable water 2.1 Bm3/y.
Total water use 3.0
Bm3/y Deficit
900 Mm3/y
Excessive Pumping
Flood Irrigation
???Qat trees
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Impacts of Climate Change in Groundwater

• Three simplified CC scenarios of the impacts of
  CC on groundwater for the period 2025 up to 2080s
  were developed (WEC HR Wallingford, 2010) .
  This study financed by the World Bank in the
  framework of NAPA programe
• A hot and dry scenario
• A mid scenario,
• A warm and wet Scenario
• These scenarios were developed based on the
  collected baseline data (1961-2000) i.e.
• Average annual Temperature
• Average annual rainfall
• 3. 15 Global Climate Model (GCM)

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Scenarios Broad Characterization

• Expectations
• - warming (1 to 1.6 C)
• An increase in rainfall
• An increase in Runoff and recharge

• Expectations
• Considerable warming (1.6 to 3.1 C)
• No significant change in rainfall

• Expectations
• Decrease Rainfall,
• Decline of runoff and recharge
• Temp. may become too high (2 to 4.5 C)

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Prospects of GW Abstraction Climate Change
impacts for Yemen as a Whole
By 2025 GW reserves will be exhausted
abstraction will equal recharge
After 2025, the GL shows the extraction levels
that would be consistent with current rates of
recharge the extra resource available from
increased recharge under the warm wet
scenario.
The Red Line is common to all scenarios up to 2025
The RL after 2025 traces Drop in recharge
abstractions below current recharge levels under
Hot Dry Scenario
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Main National Policies Undertaken to Address the
CC

• The Initial National Communication (INC) on CC
  was prepared on April, 2001
• The National Adaptation Programme of Action
  (NAPA, Yemen) was prepared on 2008 and endorsed
  by Cabinet in March 2009.
• The Second National Communication (SNC) on CC was
  prepared on 2007- 09.
• Some Relevant Existing national and sectoral
  strategies and plans
• Poverty Reduction Strategy, Vision 2025.
• National Water Sector Strategy and Investment
  Programme (NWSSIP)
• Integrated Coastal Zone Management Plans
• Health and Environment Strategy
• Environmental Impact Assessment Policy
• World Bank Country Assistance Strategy (CAS)
• Establishment of Inter-ministerial CC
  Commission/Board, 2009
• (MWE, MAI, MoF, MLA, MFW, MoT, MTIT, EPA, NWRA)

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Previous Projects Related to CC

• - National Level
• A Study on climate change scenarios projections
  (2008/09)
• National Capacity Self Assessment for climate
  change, biodiversity and combating
  desertification
• National Probabilistic Risks Assessment
• Hadramout and Al Mahra Probabilistic Risks
  Assessment
• - Local Level
• Municipality of Sanaa Natural Disaster Risk
  Evaluation and Urban Planning
• Sanaa Integrated Storm water Management Plan
• Adapting to Water Scarcity for Yemens Vulnerable
  Communities
• (Case studies of Sana'a Basin , Sadaa Basin and
  Aden City)

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On-going Projects Related to CC

• Climate impacts on water resource management and
  agriculture (W. Bank)
• Climate impacts on Agrobiodiversity (World Bank)
• Rainfed Areas Livestock Project
• Agro-biodiversity and Adaptation Project
• Water Sector Support Program
• Groundwater and Soil Conservation Project (World
  Bank)
• Sanaa Basin Water Management Project
• Integrated Coastal Zone Management
• Irrigation Improvement Project

Planned Projects Related to CC

• Pilot Project for Climate Resilience (PPCR)

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Recommendations to Mitigate and Adopt with
Climate Change Impacts

• Improving governance through transparency and
  an active civil society role,
• Capacity Building and awareness Programme at all
  levels
• Empowering rural communities so that they can
  participate in assessments and feed in their
  knowledge to provide useful climate information
• Integrate climate resilience into the design of
  new infrastructure for irrigation and flood
  control
• Developing an early warning systems which can
  help to anticipate and prevent disasters
• Integrating climate change impacts into economic
  planning for the national budget.

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The opportunities for interventions
1. Technical Opportunities WR management and
agriculture

• Updating knowledge on critical basins to
  determine safe yields and storage capacities of
  aquifers and surface water resources.
• Upgrading the network of hydro-meteorological
  monitoring stations collating relevant
  agricultural, social and economic datasets to
  enhance understanding of the system
• Developing and use appropriate tools such as
  Decision Support System DSS at different levels
  (Catchment, Basin, County)
• Developing robust climate models that reduce the
  degree of uncertainty in national and regional
  climate prediction.
•  Conducting Remote sensing and ground-truthing
  studies to identify the relationship between
  climate and change in water resources, food
  security and agriculture.

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The opportunities for interventions
1. Technical Opportunities WR management and
Agriculture
Interventions Suggested measures
1. More efficient groundwater irrigation and more use of groundwater for supplementary irrigation Piped conveyance and distribution Pressurized irrigation (drip, bubbler) Improved irrigation management Drought bridging through supplementary irrigation
2. Investment in infrastructure and improved water use efficiency of surface irrigation Improved spate irrigation Incorporating flood preparedness into surface irrigation management Wastewater reuse
3. Return to traditional agricultural and water harvesting techniques Promoting water harvesting, fog harvesting Terrace rehabilitation Promoting improved livestock and rangeland systems
4. Changing cropping patterns, growing shorter cycle Varietal research (on short cycle or drought tolerant varieties, high value low water using crops etc.) Farming systems research
5. Adoption of integrated management of the water resource at all levels Develop capacity for planning and regulation on a partnership basis Water resource evaluation and monitoring Incentive structure to encourage efficient and sustainable use Licensing, registration, regulation Promote basin level planning and management Support WUAs as the lowest building block of WR management Watershed management in key catchments
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The opportunities for interventions
2. Policies, Institutional and Capacity Building

• Establishing a CC strategy endorsed by Cabinet
  and in consistence with available strategies
• Accelerating formation of National Committee for
  CC adaptation and representing all concern
  agencies
• Mainstreaming of climate change issues into all
  local, sub national, national, and sectorial
  planning processes
• Building institutional and technical capacity in
  the MWE, including NWRA, the water utilities and
  GARWSP to better integrate climate change
  concerns into water strategies and policies.
• Ensuring close cooperation among various agencies
  with interests in the water sector, including
  MAI, MWE, NWRA, EPA, the water utilities, GARWSP,
  and CAMA.
• Revision and development of Water Resources plans
  according to CC impacts
• Staff Capacity Building and provision of a
  suitable environment to perform their tasks
•  

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The opportunities for interventions

• 3. Support of Local Community-
• Investing in public awareness campaign of local
  communities about CC impacts adaptation
• Promote Capacity building of lo identify
  priorities and adaption with CC
• Involve local communities (LC, WUA) in planning
  and implementation process of pilot projects
• Improve livelihood of local communities through
  implementation of certain activities based on
  areas priorities
• Exchange experiences between community
• representatives in different topographical
  areas
• Documentation of the local traditional,
  indigenous
• knowledge and use it for CC adaptation 

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THANK YOU