Title: Lecture 27: Climate Change, Ecology and Society.
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2 Lecture 27 Climate Change, Ecology and
Society. Â
- By the end of this lecture you should be able to
- Describe the projected effects of the rapid
change in climate driven by human alteration of
the C cycle. - Discuss potential feedbacks that may accelerate
global warming. - Concepts and terms boreal forest and the arctic
- Â Discuss the Niche concept and how it is used to
construct the distribution of future ecosystems. - Â Describe how paleoecology is used to understand
the relationship between climate and ecosystem
function.
- Describe how ancient soils and fossils are dated.
- Concepts and terms 14C, half life, radioactive
decay - Discuss basic principles of dendroecology.
- Concepts and terms  tree rings
- Describe how small changes in climate may alter
human affairs. - Reference Readings
- http//www.fs.fed.us/ne/delaware/atlas/Launch
the atlas - http//tree.ltrr.arizona.edu/
3Variations of the Earths Surface Temperature on
Two Time Scales
- relative to 1961-1990 average
Source IPCC TAR 2001
4Projected Changes in Annual Temperatures for the
2050s
The projected change is compared to the present
day with a 1 increase per year in equivalent CO2
Source The Met Office. Hadley Center for Climate
Prediction and Research
5Projected Changes in Annual Precipitation for the
2050s
The projected change is compared to the present
day with a 1 increase per year in equivalent CO2
Source The Met Office. Hadley Center for Climate
Prediction and Research
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11Historical Trends in Lake and River Ice Covering
the Northern Hemisphere
- freeze date gt 5.8 days / 100 yrs
- thaw date lt 6.5 days / 100 yrs
- temperature change 1.2oC / 100 yrs
- J.J. Magnuson et al. Science 289, 1743-1746 (2000)
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13What are these??? Water Use Efficiency
Photosynthesis/Transpiration
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15Niche all resources required by a species
16Present
2X CO2
http//www.fs.fed.us/ne/delaware/atlas/Launch
the atlas
17http//www.fs.fed.us/ne/delaware/atlas/s131f.html
18http//www.fs.fed.us/ne/delaware/atlas/web_atlas.h
tmlAllSpp
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21Natural Experiments of the Past
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23Annual layers radiocarbon (14C) technique
24Carbon 14 Dating
14N n gt 14C p 14C gt 14N b T1/2 5563
years, after 10 half lives undetectable. T ln
(Nf/No)/(-0.69)T1/2
http//www.c14dating.com/index.html
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26http//www.museum.state.il.us/muslink/forest/htmls
/an_nelson.html
27Earth's oldest living inhabitant at 4,767 years,
White-Inyo mountain range of California.
Bristlecone pine ghost
http//www.sonic.net/bristlecone/Images.html
28Dendrochronology is the dating and study of
annual rings in trees.
http//tree.ltrr.arizona.edu/dendrochronology.html
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30Little Ice Age 1550-1850 (coldest-early 1800s)
Global mean temperature decreases lt 1 oC
Crop failure in Scotland
10 of Scotland migrates to Ulster (N. Ireland)
Massive population growth in Ireland Dependence
on one crop
1845. Potato Blight originates in Peru. Crop
failure - 1 million die in Ireland
Rapid warming at end of LIA warm and wet in
Ireland
31Extreme Events
Judgmental estimates of confidence by IPCC very
likely - 90-99 chance, likely - 66-90 chance.
Source IPCC TAR 2001