CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT

1
CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT
Presented by H. S. Brahma National Disaster
Management Authority (NDMA), Government of India
2
Mason Cooleys Observations (1927)

• A review of the rising numbers of the people in
  absolute poverty, of growing gaps between the
  rich and the poor, of ongoing environmental
  degradation, globalization of consumer culture
  and of the global environmental impact of
  industrialization all set against the seeming
  lack of political and population go for change,
  certainly makes it look like humanity has been
  courting disaster.

3
DISASTER RISK
4
(No Transcript)
5
(No Transcript)
6
(No Transcript)
7
(No Transcript)
8
(No Transcript)
9
(No Transcript)
10
Risk Processes

• Global scale contemporary risk processes
  challenges disaster management in two ways
• The models of global change (past
  industrialization in North America and Europe)
  are often distanced in time and space from its
  impact (i.e. Bangladesh, India etc.)
• Mitigating disaster requires coordination at the
  local, national and global levels.

11
Framework Convention on Climate Change
The threat of climate change that led to the
Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) at
Rio, is perceived differently by different
countries. This fact has delayed any effective
international agreement on how to deal with the
problem.
12
Perception
In the case of the Montreal Protocol covering
ozone-depleting substances, there was a wide
consensus and effective action was mobilized
quickly. Thus, an understanding of perceptions
and positions of different countries makes it
easier to explore possibilities of effective
action.
13

• Indias perceptions on the problem of climate
  change and sustainable development
• the kind of different perceptions and Indias
  stand
• The policies India has undertaken so far and
  finally Indias possibilities for action that can
  help contain the threat of climate change.

14

• Why should India be Concerned about Climate
  Change?
• India should be concerned about climate change
  since this would have serious adverse impacts on
  -
• Agriculture, livelihood
• Sea level rise leading to submergence of highly
  productive coastal areas
• Increased frequency of extreme events like
  cyclones, floods, droughts etc
• Water Resources

15

• In the recent years, there has been a dramatic
  increase in the frequency and severity of natural
  disasters in the World and their consequential
  effects, in terms of loss of lives and manifold
  increase in economic and financial losses. The
  global economic losses due to disasters from the
  1960s to the 1990s show almost a nine fold
  increase.

16
(No Transcript)
17

• The economic losses suffered due to disasters in
  India from 1991 to 2005, also depict an alarming
  trend in the degree of vulnerability and exposure
  to risk amounting to financial loss of nearly 2
  per cent of the GDP.

18
Vulnerability is increasing with

• Rising population
• Haphazard Urbanization
• Developments in High-Risk zones
• Environmental Degradation
• Climate Change etc.

19
MAJOR DISASTERS (1980-2005)
Earthquake Uttarkashi, 20 Oct 1991, Chamoli, 23
April 1999
Earthquake, Oct, 2005
Avalanche Feb 2005
Flood, Assam Bihar 2004
Bhuj, Earthquake, 26 January, 2001
Bhopal Gas Tragedy, Dec 1982
Earthquake, Latur, 30 Sept 1993
S Cyclone 29 Oct 1999
Tsunami 26 Dec 2004
Floods, Mumbai, 26 July 2005
Tsunami 26 Dec 2004
Tsunami 26 Dec 2004
20
Disaster Management in India Historical Landmarks

• HPC on Disaster Management set up in August 1999
• Innumerable loss of human life and property
  retardation of developmental growth
• Orissa Cyclone (29th October 1999)
• Gujarat Earthquake (26th January 2001)
• Tsunami (26th December 2004)
• JK Earthquake (9th October, 2005)
• Building culture of preparedness, quick response,
  strategic thinking and prevention
• Setting up of National Disaster Management
  Authority
• Enactment of Disaster Management Act 2005

21
Recent Disasters in India (1990-2005)
22
(No Transcript)
23
India is vulnerable to a large number of disasters

• Approx. 60 of the landmass is prone to
  Earthquakes
• Approx.12 (About 40 million hectares of land)
  is prone to flood and river erosion.
• Approx. 68 of the cultivable area is vulnerable
  to drought/landslides/avalanches
• About 5770 km of coastline out of a total 7516
  km is prone to Cyclone and Tsunami

24
Paradigm Shift

• From the earlier focus primarily on response and
  relief to mitigation, prevention and
  preparedness.
• National Roadmap for DM
• Primary objective Mainstreaming of DM into the
  Development Process.
• Create a Culture ethos of Preparedness
  Prevention across the country

25
National Disaster Management Authority

• The DM Act, 2005 brought into the Authority at
  National level
• The Act lays down institutional and coordination
  mechanisms at the National, State, District and
  Local levels and provides for establishment of
  Disaster Response Mitigation Funds

26
DISASTER MANAGEMENT CONTINUUM
Disaster Strikes
27
Disasters offer a unique opportunity to learn
where we have gone wrong.
Preparedness and Mitigation of Disasters is the
most important part of Disaster Management while
strengthening our response capabilities
28
India and Agriculture

• Population 1 billion
• GDP from Agriculture 34 (1994), around 20
  (at present)
• Area under Agriculture 50 (160 mha)
• Population under Agriculture 70
• Average farm size 1 to 5 ha

29
Impact on Agriculture

• May alter spatial and temporal demands and supply
  by impacting
• Food Production
• Stability and sustainability
• Employment opportunity
• Profitability
• Trade

30
Climate Change Scenarios for India
31
Potential Impact of Climate Change on Wheat
Production in India
32
Global Climate Change will impact

• Millennium Development Goal
• Large proportion of people living in extreme
  poverty in Developing Countries
• Safe drinking water supply, Energy crisis,
  Health, Agriculture Livestock production
• Biodiversity
• Climate Change a cross cutting issue

33
Climate variability and Climate Change

• Increase in CO2
• Increase in Temperature
• Change in Precipitation
• Variability and extreme events such as floods and
  drought
• From India's point of view, a 2C increase would
  be clearly intolerable
• Other developing countries may be even more
  vulnerable (possibly Bangladesh or Small Island
  States).

34
Issues in Climate Change

• India should be an active and decisive partner,
  along with other developing countries. We need
  to ask
• What concentration levels, along with the
  associated risks, are acceptable to developing
  countries?
• How could it be ensured that the risks to the
  developing countries are minimized?

35

• If countries postpone their commitments to reduce
  emissions, they use up limited carbon Emission
  budgets available for future.
• How will it be available to the developing
  countries when they need it for their growth?
• How do we ensure that we have a fair share of the
  global environmental space?

36
Implications

• The developing countries are particularly
  vulnerable to the likely increase in the
  incidence of extreme events.
• The impacts of climate change could hinder
  development and delay progress in eradicating
  poverty, potentially aggravating socio-economic
  and environmental conditions in these countries.
  This may lead to political aberration.

37
Immediate Concern
The overriding immediate concern for India is to
prepare a detailed roadmap. With the threat of
climate change, India is called upon to change
its energy strategy based on coal, its most
abundant resource, and to use other energy
sources (e.g. oil, gas, renewable and nuclear
energy) instead, which may turn out to be
expensive.
38
The Costs of Changing Energy Strategy

• If India has to reduce its carbon emissions, it
  would mean a major reorientation of her energy
  strategy.
• Especially if that warranted a shift from its
  current coal-based to a oil and gas based energy
  system.

39
Past Efforts

• Efforts to deal with the situation are on-going
  for several decades and are institutionalized in
  a number of ways through policies, programmes and
  the creation of specific institutions.
• These are government efforts in addition there
  are a number of measures taken by people
  themselves.

40

• Along with other developing countries, India has
  carried out major economic reforms and removed
  subsidies. These have resulted in substantial
  energy savings and reduction in emissions through
  greater use of energy efficient technology and
  fuel substitution.
• An equitable climate regime will focus on
  limiting the risks from climate change impacts to
  poor developing countries rather than on limiting
  the costs of mitigation per se.

41
GHG Emissions

• India has for quite some time pursued polices to
  reduce GHG emissions.
• They are minimizing the energy consumption -
  particularly oil consumption.

42

• An analysis of Indias emissions reveals that its
  per capita emission of carbon is one fourth of
  the global average.
• India, and other similar types of developing
  countries, are making significant progress in
  limiting GHG emissions through normal policy
  developments.

43

• Directly or indirectly these efforts are made by
  Government as well as by people to reduce energy
  consumption. These include -
• Emphasis on energy conservation.
• Promotion of renewable energy sources.
• Abatement of air pollution.
• Afforestation and wasteland development.
• Economic reforms, subsidy removal and joint
  ventures in capital goods.
• Fuel substitution policies.

44
Agriculture - Adaptation to Climate Change

• New Varieties drought/heat resistant
• New farm management practices
• Change in land use
• Watershed management
• Agriculture insurance

45
Summary

• India and other developing countries feel
  strongly that they are not responsible for the
  threat of climate change that has been created.
• Unsustainable consumption patterns of the rich
  industrialized nations in the world are
  responsible for it.
• Yet, India and other developing country economies
  may be highly vulnerable to climate change.

46
Workable Solution

• Thus, an immediate issue is to come up with a
  effective and efficient management and more
  freedom to decide
• Which type of energy we use
• How we generate power
• How to reduce methane and nitrous oxide emissions
  by improved agricultural practices etc.
• India will have to invest heavily in science and
  technology to combat climate change

47
Thank You