Arctic Climate Change

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Arctic Climate Change

• Practical Implications of Changing Ice Cover
• John Falkingham
• IICWG, October 2000

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Is the Arctic Icescape Changing?
Science and observational evidence point to
decreasing ice
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Is the Arctic Icescape Changing?
Science and observational evidence point to
decreasing ice
No Summer Ice Cover
www.msc-smc.ec.gc.ca/socc/seaice/seaice_future.htm
l
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Hudson Bay Median Total Ice Concentration (1971-
1998)
for July 15
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Inter-Annual Variability
Hudson Bay ice extent can vary by more than 300
from one year to the next
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Decreasing Ice Extent
About 13 per decade
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Hudson Bay Example of Heavy Ice Condition Year (
1992)
for July 15
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Hudson Bay Example of Light Ice Condition Year (
1977)
for July 15
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Marine Transportation in Canadas Arctic
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Canadas Eastern Arctic Median Total Ice
Concentration (1968-1998)for August 15
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Inter-Annual Variability
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Decreasing Ice Extent
Decrease of about 20 since 1968
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Natural Resources
Considerable resources ready for development
Decreased ice would make these resources conside
rably more attractive economically
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Marine Resources
Currently, the only commercial fishery is the
shrimp fishery along the Davis Strait / Baffin
Bay ice edge Reduced ice extent could attract i
nternational fishing fleets to vast new stocks
How will these new resources be managed?
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The Northwest Passage
Mariners have been seeking this route for at
least 500 years. Will it become viable in this
century?
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CGCM2 Winter and Summer Projected Ice Cover
Change1971-90 vs 2041-2060
March
September
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and
Analysis, Meteorological Service of Canada
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Inter-Annual Variability
Even with much reduced sea ice in the Arctic in
the future, there will still be bad ice years
interspersed with good ice years

• Icebreaker escort will often be required
• Route planning will be essential to avoid ice
• Ice information services will be in high demand
• Significant changes to ice information
  infrastructure

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Conclusion

• Cooperation and coordination among national ice
  services of the north polar region will become
  more important than ever

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