Title: The Climate of the Earth: CO2 and
1The Climate of the Earth CO2 and Climate
Change (Global Warming)
- Note climate change was a term invented by
Republican pollster Frank Luntz, for the Bush
Administration in 2003, for political reasons. - Ill use Global Warming as its more accurate
and doesnt have the political spin.
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3Is there a Scientific Controversy about the Cause
of Global Warming?
- No. Climate scientists themselves are convinced
by the evidence global warming is human-caused,
primarily by fossil fuel burning. And have been,
for over 20 years - AGW Anthropogenic Global Warming, a useful
abbreviation - Millions of dollars of oil money is financing an
ugly mis-information campaign to seed cynicism
towards legitimate science in the American public
and in politicians about the cause. See my
website page on the politics here.
4Note How The More Closely You Understand Climate
Science, The More Convinced You are that Global
Warming is Human-Caused
5Are Global Average Temperatures Rising
Significantly compared to Recent Geologic
History? Yes.
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8Longer Term Over Several Hundred Thousand Years
- Ice Ages
- Ice Ages show a strong correlation with small
changes in the Earths orbital ellipticity,
orientation, and angle of the Earths spin axis.
As these go through cycles the Milankovitch
Cycles the amount of heat delivered to the
Arctic Circle varies, showing a strong
correlation with inducing Ice Ages - Reason Ice is its own refrigerant. White ice
reflects incoming sunlight, radiates little IR.
More ice means more reflection, means more
cooling, means more ice etc.
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10- Without Humans to add large amounts of greenhouse
gases (GHGs) to the atmosphere, temperatures
rose and fell with very slow geological changes
(or occasionally, by a big comet/asteroid impact) - Rising temperatures will slowly lower the amount
of CO2 that can be dissolved in the oceans,
pulling it out and adding to GHG warming coming
out of an Ice Age. This mechanism explains why
temperature rises preceeded CO2 rises IN THE
PREHISTORIC GEOLOGIC RECORD. - This is NOT relevant for todays Global Warming,
which is caused by GHGs, not slow Milankovitch
cycles or other slow natural changes. - Note the Temperature Range Roughly 6 degrees C.
Thats the same temperature changes climate
models say we can expect not in 100,000 years,
but this century. - So YES todays global warming is significant!
11So Temperatures are Rising Rapidly. Do we Know
for Sure that CO2 is Rising and in a Significant
Amount? YES.
12 13The Rising Atmospheric CO2 is clearly in
Agreement with Rising CO2 emissions by Human
Activity
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15Is there Other Evidence that Rising CO2 levels
are Caused by Humans? Yes.
- 1. Carbon isotope ratio C14/C12 in the
atmosphere is dropping, exactly as calculations
say it should, as very low C14/C12 carbon from
oil and coal dilutes the higher C14/C12 carbon
which has existed in the atmosphere for millions
of years. - (Note C14 is created high in the atmosphere from
N14 by high energy solar wind and cosmic rays),
and C14 decays in a few thousand, not hundreds of
millions of years (when ancient plants were
buried to produce todays oil and coal reserves),
so the C14/C12 ratio from long-buried oil is
extremely low. - 2. Known production levels of CO2 from mining
and oil production fit with the rate of observed
rising CO2 levels. See following slides.
16Global Temperatures vs Atmospheric CO2 vs CO2
Emissions by Humans Last 1000 Years
17So, OK Temperatures are rising dramatically,
and so are CO2 levels, and so are human generated
CO2 Emissions. But, couldnt there be other
causes of global warming that might be as
significant or more so, than human activities?
18The ONLY Known Mechanism which produces Heating
of the Lower Atmosphere AND Cooling of the
Stratosphere is Rising Greenhouse Gas
Concentrations
19And Observations Show that Indeed, the
Stratosphere is Cooling
20Another Key Nighttime Temps Rising faster than
Daytime Temps
- This is expected only from rising greenhouse gas
concentrations, because of the lag effect of
temperature rise during the day hot ground at
night cant radiate away its heat because of CO2
blanket - If the sun were somehow causing rising temps, you
would expect day temps to be rising faster than
night temps. We see the opposite
21DTR Daily Temp Range 2000 vs 1951.
22But Couldnt there still be something Else? Other
Influences Causing Global Warming, Not Us? No.
The green (greenhouse gas) Curve Dominates
23Climate Modelling Has Improved Dramatically.
Climate Models Can ONLY Fit the Observational
Data if Man-Made GHGs are Included
24But What About Subtle, Indirect Causes
- 1. Svensmark Hypothesis Cosmic Rays causing
cloud condensation nucleation, and low clouds
would cool the surface, so maybe this amplifies
the weak solar radiation effect? - No First, the theory doesnt make sense.
Theres plenty of potential cloud nuclei w/o
having to make more from cosmic rays. Second, the
observations dont show a believable correlation,
and third and most important the solar cycle
shows no trend for the past 60 years, precisely
when global warming has been most severe and
accelerating. - While cosmic ray flux does correlate strongly
with solar cycle, the observed correlation
between solar cycle and temperatures is directly
explained by the known (small) change in solar
irradiance with solar cycle, only coincidentally
with cosmic ray influx.
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27 Svensmarks is the Only Idea Ive Seen which
isnt Outright Climate Denialism at Work. And
Yet You See that it, Too, is Wrong.
- The politics of climate is ugly. See my website
for details. Look especially at the YouTubes
Climate Crock of the Week series, which are
faithful to good science, and also entertaining.
Linked near the top of this page
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29Industry Science If Your Science Hurts Profits,
Dont Expect Objective Honesty! Example
30Conclusion Industry science is suspect.
Industry hires scientists to help it earn
profits. If theres a conflict between the Truth,
and profits.. You can guess which wins
- It may not always be the scientists themselves
who buckle under threat of losing their jobs
industry may simply ignore or de-fund studies
which to not serve their profits - Contrast with Academia, where support comes from
the NSF, NASA, and generally unbiased funding
sources. - Academic scientists publish in peer-reviewed
journals. Industry scientists often cant make
the grade in true journals, and end up having to
publish in trade journals, which have a poor
track record of objectivity.
31What Are the Effects of Global Warming?
- Rapid melting of the Arctic. The long term ice of
the Arctic Ocean is already almost gone, and
predicted to vanish entirely in just 20 years! - Greenland is losing ice at an accelerating rate
- Rising sea levels
- Desertification of the mid latitudes is
accelerating - Migration of tropical diseases to mid latitudes.
Malaria is already now being found in south Texas - Massive dying of forests as pests which used to
be held in check by cold winters are now
multiplying. This releases yet more CO2 - Very Dangerous Acidification of the ocean,
destroying coral reefs and before the end of this
century - all calcium carbonate shell-building
animals, a key base of the food chain on Earth. - We are in the midst of the 6th Great Extinction
the Anthropocene Extinction. Half or more of all
species of life on Earth are expected to be
extinct by the end of this century. Caused by us,
with Global Warming the single most important
cause.
32Rising Ocean Concentrations of CO2 and Dropping
pH (Acidification) Clearly Observed
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35Worldwide Retreat of Glaciers
36What About the Future? IPCC 2007 Predictions are
not Alarmist Enough why?
- (1) Greenland ice loss did not model lubrication
of glacier bases by meltwater, being too poorly
understood. - In fact, Greenland is losing ice much faster than
predicted as this base meltwater accelerates
glaciers into the ocean
37Using Observed Greenland Ice Loss Rates Sea
level rise will be 3 times higher than even the
IPCC 2007 AR4 Predicted
38More Alarming
- The IPCC 2007 modelling did not include the
effects of Arctic broken ice migrating out of the
Arctic Ocean and into the warmer Atlantic, which
is clearly accelerating Arctic Ocean ice loss. - IPCC 2007 expected the Arctic Ocean would not be
ice-free until 2100. We now expect itll be more
like 2030. (see graph on next slide)
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40 And Most Alarming of All
- Studies show an ice-free Arctic would cause
thawing of permafrost as far as 1500 km south of
the Arctic coastline. This region contains more
than twice the entire carbon content currently in
the atmosphere. - Worse by far, it contains 10 times the methane as
is already in the atmosphere, just in the frozen
lakes alone. These lakes are now melting.
(methane is 25x stronger GHG than CO2) - If all of this methane is released to the
atmosphere, the Greenhouse Effect heating goes up
by 400. Then add in further heating due to
higher humidity (water vapor is a power
greenhouse gas too), and the above CO2 in peat,
and climate change would be extreme and many
times worse than the most pessimistic IPCC 2007
forecast - See this video of the arctic lakes methane
content
41Global Warming is Only a Symptom of a Larger
Problem Living Beyond the Carrying Capacity of
the Earth
- According to Stanford studies, with current
technology, our planet can support only 1.5-2
billion people sustainably. We have 7 billion,
heading up towards 10 billion. - Topsoil can only be replaced on geological time
scales. Modern agriculture and land use is
causing a loss of 1 of our topsoil per year - Our planet today can only sustainably support 7
billion people if they are reduced to a standard
of living equivalent to that in Ethiopia a
place of widespread grinding poverty. Think about
that.
42Finally
- Only 36 of Americans believe that global warming
is caused by human activities, from a Pew poll in
2009 (AGW is far better understood and accepted
in Asia and elsewhere) - A poorly science-educated public is allowing the
fossil fuel industry and the politicians they
influence to commit a great tragedy. Both on the
planet, and our children. - My opinion, I hope Im wrong, is that the 21st
century will be very ugly. - Nolthenius First Law People Learn the Hard Way
- The scientific studies and journal papers backing
up and expanding on the content of this
powerpoint can be found on my websites climate
page Click here. I urge you to read it. - This is your future more than it is mine.