David Humphreys

1
David Humphreys Rio Tinto Chief
Economist Melbourne Sydney 1 March 2001 2 March
2001
2
Metal stocks in weeks consumption
end year average for aluminium and copper
3
Forward Days Cover (OECD Commercial Stocks)
Projection (with 1 Mb/d OPEC cut in 2001)
Source BP
4
Minerals industry capacity utilisation
capacity utilisation, 5 year averages
Sources BP, IWCC, MG, Rio Tinto, EAA, James F
King. Western world only for aluminium and copper.
5
Industry exploration expenditure by region
US billion

6
Nonferrous metals prices
The Economist index, 1995100
7
World GDP growth
change
Source Consensus Economics. World GDP uses
exchange rate based weights
8
Consensus forecasts of GDP growth for 2001
month of forecast 2000
2001
9
OECD IP and leading indicator of IP
Year on year changes
Industrial production
Leading indicator of IP
Source OECD
10
Industrial production
Year on year change
Germany
11
Shares of world GDP and metals consumption 1999

12
North American share of metal and mineral markets
Aluminium
Borates

31
39
Copper
Titanium pigments
23
33
13
Housing starts
Year on year changes, moving annual totals
Japan
USA
Germany
Source OECD
permits issued
14
Japan, value of machinery orders
Year on year changes in 3-month moving average
15
Electronics exports as of total
first half 2000
16
Chinas market shares
of total world demand
17
Chinas production of consumer durables
Jan-Oct 2000 over Jan-Oct 1999
Source China Metals
18
China steel and iron ore
million tonnes
Iron ore production
Steel production
Iron ore imports
Note Figures on the production of domestic ore
have been adjusted to make them comparable with
internationally traded ores.
19
Net imports of copper to China
Estimated copper content, excl scrap and brass
products

20
World refined copper balance
million tonnes
Production
Consumption
Balance
Source ICSG/Rio Tinto
21
Copper exchange stocks and prices
Monthly data, 1989 to 2000
Q1 00
Q4 00
22
World copper consumption


23
Copper consumption by end use
1985
1999

Industrial machinery equpt
Electrical electronic
Consumer products
Construction
Transport
24
Secondary metal as a share of total consumption
Western world only

1985
1999
Secondary
Primary
25
Aluminium exchange stocks and prices
Monthly data, 1989 to 2000
Q1 00
Q4 00
26
World primary aluminium balance
million tonnes
Consumption
Production
Balance
Source Rio Tinto
27
Changes in crude steel production 1990-2000
million tonnes, change over period
Principally India, Taiwan, Mexico, Brazil, Iran
28
Steel production and iron ore prices
annual changes in HI fines and in steel
production the preceding year
Steel production
Iron ore price
Steel production is world crude steel output less
that in the US and FSU (which are largely
self-sufficient in iron ore.) Source IISI.
29
Steel production and prices
Year on year changes in world steel output and
CRU index of world steel prices
Prices (r.h. axis)
Production (l.h. axis)
Sources IISI and CRU
30
Steam coal prices in Asian market
US per tonne fob
NSW Benchmark
Export unit value
Spot
Sources Australian Coal Report, Barlow Jonker
31
US electricity consumption and coal exports
monthly data, moving annual totals
Electricity consumption (l.h. axis)
Coal exports (r.h. axis)
Source DOE/EIA
32
Electrical power generation in the USA
Gross GWh, by fuel source

2.1 a year
1.9 a year
33
Electrical power generation in Japan
Gross GWh, by fuel source

2.9 a year
6.9 a year
34
Electrical power generation in Korea
Gross GWh, by fuel source

10.9 a year
15.8 a year
35
Electrical power generation in the EU
Gross GWh, by fuel source

1.8 a year
-0.9 a year
36
Steam coal imports
million tonnes

5.8 a year
37
(No Transcript)