National Commission for Minorities

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National Commission for Minorities
Expert Group to analyse 2001 Census data on
Religion
Chairman Prof. Ashish Bose Honorary Professor,
Institute of Economic Growth Delhi University
Campus, Delhi Members Prof. T.K. Roy,
Formerly, Director, International Institute for
Population Sciences, Mumbai Prof. P.M. Kulkarni,
Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi Prof.
Mari Bhatt, Institute of Economic Growth, Delhi
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Growth of Parsi Population in India
Presentation by Prof.T.K.Roy Dr.S.Unisa, IIPS,
Mumbai For Expert Group National Commission for
Minorities Mumbai, December 4, 2004
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Growth of Parsi Population, India
Undivided India
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Growth of Parsi Population, India
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Decadal Growth Rate of Population in India and
among Parsis
6
Our Estimates of Parsi Population of 1981 and
1991 based on Census of 2001
Estimates of population is based on reverse
survival of population in 2001.
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Estimated Growth Rate of Parsi Population
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Factors Influencing Growth Rate

• FERTILITY
• Marriage Pattern
• Late marriage
• Never marrying
• Marrying outside
• Childlessness/Infertility
• MORTALITY
• MIGRATION
• AGE STUCTURE

9
Percentage of Population below age 14 in India
and among Parsis
Data for Parsis refer to Greater Mumbai only.
Parsi data are from 1961 census, IIPS survey,
1982, and TISS survey, 1999. All India data refer
to censuses of 1961, 1981 and 2001 respectively.
10
Child Woman Ratio in India and among Parsis
Data for Parsis refer to Greater Mumbai only.
Parsi data are from 1961 census, IIPS survey,
1982, and TISS survey, 1999. All India data refer
to censuses of 1961, 1981 and 2001 respectively.
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Estimated Total Fertility Rates in India and
among Parsis
Total fertility rate, simply stated, denotes
average number of children born to a woman in her
reproductive life (15-49). TFR for Parsis refers
to Greater Mumbai.Estimation of TFR is based on
child woman ratios and employing Reles method.
All India figures for 1982 refer to1980-82, and
1999 refer to 2000 from SRS.
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Child Woman Ratio of Parsi Population by Major
States, 2001
Child Woman Ratio
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Estimated Total Fertility Rate of Parsi
Population by Major States, 2001
Estimated using child woman ratio by Reles
method. TFR for Spain is 1.2, Japan is 1.4 and
Sweden is 1.6(Human Development Report, 2000).
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Estimated Crude Birth Rate among Parsi Population
(per 1,000 population)
Estimated using age distribution of population
from Census 2001 and employing reverse survival
method.
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Number of Ever Married Women in the age Group
15-44 per 1000 population in India and among
Parsis
Data for Parsis refer to Greater Mumbai only.
Parsi data are from 1961 census, IIPS survey,
1982, and TISS survey, 1999. All India data refer
to censuses of 1961, 1981 and NFHS-2
respectively.
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Percentage of Childless Women in age group 45-49
among Parsis

• Year Percentage
• 1982 16.7
• 1999 11.7

Data refer to Greater Mumbai only. Estimates are
from, IIPS survey, 1982, and TISS survey, 1999.
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Mean Age at Marriage (years) in India and among
Parsis
Data for Parsis refer to Greater Mumbai only.
Parsi data are from 1961 census, IIPS survey,
1982, and TISS survey, 1999. All India data refer
to censuses of 1961, 1981 and NFHS-2
respectively .
18
Percentage of Males (50-54) Remaining Never
Married in India and among Parsis
Data for Parsis refer to Greater Mumbai only.
Parsi data are from 1961 census, IIPS survey,
1982, and TISS survey, 1999. All India data refer
to censuses of 1961, 1981 and NFHS-2 .(Age 50
from NFHS).
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Percentage of Females (50-54) Remaining Never
Married in India and among Parsis
Data for Parsis refer to Greater Mumbai only.
Parsi data are from 1961 census, IIPS survey,
1982, and TISS survey, 1999. All India data refer
to censuses of 1961, 1981 and NFHS-2 .(Age 50
from NFHS).
20
Estimated Infant Mortality Rate and Life
Expectancy among Parsis
Indirect estimation based on Children Ever born
and Children Surviving data of 1982 and 1999
surveys.
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Migration

• Estimated Natural increase during 1991-2001
  (Births Deaths) 8630
• Population 2001 Population 1991 Natural
  increase Net Migration
• 69601 76382 8630 Net Migration
• ? Net Migration during 1991-2001 1849

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Percentage of Population Aged 65 and above in
India and among Parsis
Data for Parsis refer to Greater Mumbai only.
Parsi data are from 1961 census, IIPS survey,
1982, and TISS survey, 1999. All India data refer
to censuses of 1961, 1981 and 2001 respectively.
23
Percentage of Population Aged 65 and above among
Parsis and in Some Selected Countries
Data for Parsis and All India are from Census
of 2001. Sweden, Japan and Spain figures are for
1998 (Human Development Report, 2000).
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Percentage of Population Aged 60 and above in
India and among Parsis
Data for Parsis refer to Greater Mumbai only.
Parsi data are from 1961 census, IIPS survey,
1982, and TISS survey, 1999. All India data refer
to censuses of 1961, 1981 and 2001 respectively.
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Trend in Sex Ratio (F/M) of Parsi Population
Census of India, 1951 to 2001
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Sex-Ratio by Religious Groups, India, 2001
Census of India 2001
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Sex Ratio among Parsis by Broad age groups
Census 2001
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Age Group wise Distribution of Parsi Population,
India-2001
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Projected Population (000)
Projection I - TFR will decline from 1.0 in 2001
to 0.75 in 2051 Projection II - TFR will remain
constant at 1.0 from 2001 to 2051Projection III
TFR will increase from 1.0 in 2001 to 1.4 in
2011, 2.1 in 2021 and remain constant at 2.1
afterwards. Expectation of life for all
projections are same for males it will increase
from 75 to 83 and for females from 76 to 85
during 2001 to 2051.
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• Thank you

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Notes on Sources of Data

• Scholars working on Parsi generally have taken
  data on Parsi population for 1901 to 1961 from
  Census of India 1961, Vol X, Maharashtra -Part
  X(1_D) Parsis of Greater Mumbai. It is found that
  data given in this volume some times do not match
  with figures given in the respective censuses.
  In such cases, we have considered the data
  available from respective censuses. See also
  Census of India, 1931 By J.H. Hutton for 1931
  and for 1971 Census of India 1971, Series I,
  Religion, Paper of 1972.
• Other Sources
• Karkal, M.(1982). Survey of Parsi Population of
  Greater Bombay, International Institute for
  Population Sciences, Mumbai
• Singh, D.P. and Gowri,V.(2000).Parsis of Mumbai
  A Socio-Demographic Profile, Tata Institute of
  Social Sciences , Mumbai