Razlicita videnja sveta posle Hladnog rata

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Razlicita videnja sveta posle Hladnog rata

• Medunarodni odnosi kao druga i treca era
  globalizacije, povratak u buducnosti
  dolazeca anarhija

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• I Medunarodni odnosi posle Hladnog rata kao
  druga i treca era globalizacije videnje Tomasa
  L. Fridmana
• II Medunarodni odnosi posle Hladnog rata kao
  povratak u buducnost videnje Dona Mirajmera
• III Medunarodni odnosi posle Hladnog rata kao
  dolazeca anarhija
• IV Literatura

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I Druga i treca era globalizacije videnje
Tomasa L. Fridmana

• Thomas L. Friedman, The Lexus and Olive Tree,
  Farrar Straus and Giroux, New York, 1999 The
  World is Flat, Farrar Straus and Giroux, 2005

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Hladni rat kao poseban medunarodni sistem

• Shvatajuci medunarodni sistem kao "dominantni
  okvir u kome se organizuju i deavaju medunarodni
  poslovi ... ali i unutranja politika... koji ne
  oblikuje sve, ali oblikuje mnogo stvari", Fridman
  iznosi miljenje da je proces globalizacije kao
  glavno obeleje poslednje decenije XX veka,
  poseban medunarodni sistem koji je nasledio
  sistem hladnog rata.

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• Da zakljucimo, u najkracem, medunarodni sitem
  globalizacije nije statican vec dinamican
  proces, za razliku od medunarodnog sistema
  hladnog rata koji je bio veoma statican.

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II Povratak u buducnost videnje Dona
Mirajmera

• JOHN J. MEARSHEIMER, BACK TO THE
  FUTURE-INSTABILITY IN EUROPE AFTER THE COLD WAR,
  INTERNATIONAL SECURITY, VOL. 15 No 1, Summer
  1990, pp. 5-56.

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• The profound changes now underway in Europe have
  been widely viewed as harbingers of a new age of
  peace. With the Cold War over, it is said, the
  threat of war that has hung over Europe for more
  than four decades is lifting. Swords can now be
  beaten into ploughshares harmony can reign among
  the states and peoples of Europe. Central Europe,
  which long groaned under the massive forces of
  the two military blocs, can convert its military
  bases into industrial parks, playgrounds, and
  condominiums. Scholars of security affairs can
  stop their dreary quarrels over military doctrine
  and balance assessments, and turn their attention
  to finding ways to prevent global warming and
  preserve the ozone layer. European leaders can
  contemplate how to spend peace dividends. So goes
  the common view.

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• This article assesses this optimistic view by
  exploring in detail the consequences for Europe
  of an end to the Cold War
• As a result, the bipolar structure that has
  characterized Europe since the end of World War
  II is replaced by a multipolar structure. In
  essence, the Cold War we have known for almost
  half a century is over, and the postwar order in
  Europe is ended.
• would such a fundamental change affect the
  prospects for peace in Europe? Would it raise or
  lower the risk of war?

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• I argue that the prospects for major crises and
  war in Europe are likely to increase markedly if
  the Cold War ends and this scenario unfolds. The
  next decades in a Europe without the superpowers
  would probably not be as violent as the first 45
  years of this century, but would probably be
  substantially more prone to violence than the
  past 45 years.
• This pessimistic conclusion rests on the argument
  that the distribution and character of military
  power are the root causes of war and peace.

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• Specifically, the absence of war in Europe since
  1945 has been a consequence of three factors the
  bipolar distribution of military power on the
  Continent the rough military equality between
  the two states comprising the two poles in
  Europe, the United States and the Soviet Union
  and the fact that each superpower was armed with
  a large nuclear arsenal.
• The departure of the superpowers from Central
  Europe would transform Europe from a bipolar to a
  multipolar system. Germany, France, Britain, and
  perhaps Italy would assume major power status
  the Soviet Union would decline from superpower
  status but would remain a major European power,
  giving rise to a system of five major powers and
  a number of lesser powers. The resulting system
  would suffer the problems common to multipolar
  systems, and would therefore be more prone to
  instability. Power inequities could also appear
  if so, stability would be undermined further.

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• The departure of the superpowers would also
  remove the large nuclear arsenals they now
  maintain in Central Europe. This would remove the
  pacifying effect that these weapons have had on
  European politics. Four principal scenarios are
  possible. Under the first scenario, Europe would
  become nuclearfree, thus eliminating a central
  pillar of order in the Cold War era. Under the
  second scenario, the European states do not
  expand their arsenals to compensate for the
  departure of the superpowers' weapons. In a third
  scenario, nuclear proliferation takes place, but
  is mismanaged no steps are taken to dampen the
  many dangers inherent in the proliferation
  process. All three of these scenarios would raise
  serious risks of war.
• In the fourth and least dangerous scenario,
  nuclear weapons proliferate in Europe, but the
  process is well-managed by the current nuclear
  powers.
• However, it would still be more dangerous than
  the world of 1945 - 90. Moreover, it is not
  likely that proliferation would be well-managed.

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• Three principal policy prescriptions follow from
  this analysis. First, the United States should
  encourage a process of limited nuclear
  proliferation in Europe. Specifically, Europe
  will be more stable if Germany acquires a secure
  nuclear deterrent, but proliferation does not go
  beyond that point. Second, the United States
  should not withdraw fully from Europe, even if
  the Soviet Union pulls its forces out of Eastern
  Europe. Third, the United States should take
  steps to forestall the re-emergence of
  hyper-nationalism in Europe.

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• None of these tasks will be easy to accomplish.
  In fact, I expect that the bulk of my
  prescriptions will not be followed most run
  contrary to powerful strains of domestic American
  and European opinion, and to the basic nature of
  state behavior. Moreover, even if they are
  followed, this will not guarantee the peace in
  Europe. If the Cold War is truly behind us, the
  stability of the past 45 years is not likely to
  be seen again in the coming decades.

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III Medunarodni odnosi posle Hladnog rata kao
dolazeca anarhija

• Robert D. Kaplan, The Coming Anarchy, The
  Atlantic Monthly, February 1994, pp. 44 77.

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• The cities of West Africa are some of the
  unsafest places in the world. Streets are unlit
  the police often lack gasoline for their
  vehicles armed burglars, carjackers and muggers
  proliferate. Direct flights between the United
  States and the Murtala Muhammed Airport, in
  neighboring Nigerias largest city, Lagos, have
  been suspended by the Us Secretary of
  Transportation because of ineffective security at
  terminal and its environs In Abidjan,
  effectively the capital of the Cote dIvoire or
  Ivory Coast an Italian ambassador was killed by
  gunfire when robbers invaded an Abidjan
  restaurant. The family of the Nigerian ambassador
  was tied up and robbed at gunpoint in the
  ambassador residence.

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• Sierra Leone is a microcosm of what is occurring
  in West Africa and much of underdeveloped world
  the withering away of central governments, the
  rise of tribal and regional domains, the
  unchecked spread of disease, and the growing
  pervasiveness of war

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• West Africa is becoming the symbol of worldwide
  demographic, environmental and societal stress,
  in which criminal anarchy emerges as the real
  strategic danger. Disease, overpopulation,
  unprovoked crime, scarcity of resources, refugee
  migrations, the increasing erosions of
  nation-states and international borders, and the
  empowerment of private armies, security firms and
  international drug cartels are now most tellingly
  demonstrated through a west African prism.
• There is no other place on the planet where
  political maps are so deceptive where, in fact,
  they tell such lies as in West Africa.
  According to the map, it is a nation state of
  defined borders, with a government in control of
  its territory

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• Thomas Malthus, the philosopher of demographic
  doomsday is now the prophet of West Africa.
• Fifty five percent of the Ivory Coasts
  population is urban, and the proportion is
  expected to reach 62 percent by 2000. The yearly
  net population growth is 3. 6 percent. This means
  that the Ivory Coasts 13. 5 million people will
  become 39 million by 2025
• It is time to understand the environment for
  what it is the national security issue of the
  early twenty-first century. The political and
  strategic impact of surging populations,
  spreading disease, deforestation, and soil
  erosion, water depletion, air pollution, and
  possibly rising sea levels in critical,
  overcrowded regions such as the Nile delta and
  Bangladesh developments that will prompt mass
  migrations and in turn, incite group conflicts
  will be the core foreign policy challenge from
  which most others will ultimately emanate,
  arousing the public and uniting assorted intests
  left over from the Cold war.

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• From the vantage point of the present, there
  appears every prospect that religious fanaticism
  will play a larger role in the motivation of
  armed conflict in the West that at any time for
  the last 300 years Martin van Creveld (The
  Transformation of War)
• The real news wasnt at the white House, I
  realized. It was right below.

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HVALA NA PANJI
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