The problem isn

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OREGON ECONOMIC BRIDGE OPTIONS
The problem isnt just the bridges, or the
freight system, its about Oregons economy
and quality of life.
Oregon Modeling Steering Committee OREGON
DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATIONDecember 11, 2002
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Restricted/Cracked Bridges - Today
Local Bridges
State Bridges
Sauvie Island Bridge
Coles Bridge
Fords Bridge
Medium and high crack density
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Bridge Deterioration would initially
Restrict Trucks over 80,000 lbs
1997 Oregon Commodity Flow Truck Survey
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MODELING STATEWIDE ECONOMIC IMPACTS
Input Load Limit bridge links in Transport
Network Define industry production of Heavy
Goods Modeled Impacts Flows Heavy Trucks
detoured - OR- Heavy Trucks lighten loads to
avoid restrictions Costs Increased Shipping
costs Increased Production costs Location Chang
e industry location to reduce costs (in/out of
state) Loss of supporting service industries
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Initial Model Runs

• Driven by Bridge Task Force
• No US97 alternative
• Functional classification-based
• Little link to bridge costs

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Model Results

• Statewide Impacts
• Lighter trucks avoid restrictions, increase truck
  trips
• Economic impact of up to 3B in 2025, 17B over
  25-years
• Potential employment loss of 17,000 by 2025
• Regional Impacts
• High shipping costs benefit locations near
  borders urban areas
• Impacts those with highest shipping costs already
  (heavy goods industry, remote areas)
• Low shipping costs decentralizes activity
• Any investment improves state economy
• Investment location has regional consequences
• Portland/Willamette Valley - 75 of state
  production
• Livability Impacts
• Detours increased truck miles on unsuitable roads
• All options increase trucks in habitat/AQ areas

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Regional Production Relative to Current Mobility
Option
 
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Production - All Options
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Iterative Model Acceptance

• BOT Economic SubTeam (October)
• Skepticism about unknown model results
• Bury Model Results in Appendix
• Directors Office (Early November)
• Economic/Community impacts are paramount
• Use absolute not relative model results
• Limit investment options
• 3 Futures/Courses of Action up-front
• Flat Funding
• Flat Funding/Buy Time (proactive posting)
• Invest Now/Fix All

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Regional Production
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Local Impacts
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Iterative Model Acceptance

• Met with Trucking Industry Representatives
  (November)
• Concerned with I-5 construction impacts/delays
• Backbone Freight Route for all trucks (quick/low
  cost)
• BOT Team (Late November)
• No recommendation?
• No US97 alternative?
• Add real-world stories
• Create Recommendation with US97 staging for I-5
  work
• Model one of many tools that led to
  recommendation

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Draft Recommendation

• Staged Bridge Investment
• Open E-W, N-S Heavy Truck Routes ASAP
• (Replace on I-84, US97, S22)
• Incrementally address I-5
• (Replace to S58 and link to US97, etc.)
• Routes with high cost/benefit
• Fix Bridges with unacceptable detours
• Maintain other key routes, restrict as needed
• Selected restrictions to extend bridge life

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Use of Model

• Identify the range of impacts
• Fix All Bridges (Maximum investment)
• Allow Deterioration
• Proactively Restrict All Bridges
• TBD -- restrict below 64,000 lbs.
• Statewide Economic Impacts
• Damping of State Economy
• Employment/Population
• Importance of Portland/Willamette Valley
  connections
• Sub-State economic trends - industries and
  regions
• Temper sky is falling approach

• Local and impending statewide crisis

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Lessons Learned

• New Tool takes time to be accepted/used
• Model should generate investment options, rather
  than support a priori expectations
• Model validation/credibility is critical
• Need to model crisis
• Model is one of many inputs to process
• Need time to digest/understand model findings
• Relative measures difficult to understand

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Role of OMSC

• OMSC
• Credibility/validation of model structure
• Past efforts using model
• OMSC Bridge Sub-Committee
• Review/assist with model inputs/assumptions
• Interagency review/comment on model output
• Recommendations
• Importance of Net Present Value and lifecycle
  analysis
• Model output is an incomplete cost-benefit
  analysis
• Suggest/prioritize additional model runs

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OVERALL TIMELINE
ODOT Inspect bridges bi-annually or more often.
2001- cracks identified
Bridge Task Force Validate Problem, Emphasize
Corridors
June 2002
Dec 02
ODOT Economic and Bridge Options Report
Draft Nov 02 Final Jan 03
Jan 03 OTC
OTC, Governor, Legislature Select a strategy to
address problem.
2003
ODOT Develop implementation strategy. Implement.
Track deterioration priorities.
2003-2010
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Extra Graphics
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Initial Model Runs