Chapter Thirteen

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Chapter Thirteen

• The Realist Road to Security
• Through Alliances, Arms Control,
• and the Balance of Power

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Table 13.1 The Realist Road to Security
Assumptions and Policy Recommendations
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Alliances

• two or more states combine military capabilities
  formal agreements to coordinate behavior
• increase deterrence
• increased defense capabilities
• allies dont ally with enemies

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Realist Criticisms of Alliances

• can increase capabilities of aggressive states
• provoke formation of counter-alliances
• can draw in otherwise neutral states
• must try to control behavior of allies
• todays ally may be tomorrows enemy
• foreclose options

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Realist Criticisms of Alliances, continued

• reduce adaptability
• eliminate bargaining advantages that come from
  ambiguity
• provoke fears of adversaries
• entangle states in disputes of allies
• stimulate envy of states outside the alliance
• preserves existing rivalries
• but alliances can still be useful

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Balance of Power

• peace most likely to be maintained when military
  power is distributed so that no single power or
  bloc can dominate
• an ambiguous concept
• alliances form to counter an aggressor
• size principle competing alliances are roughly
  equal in power
• balancer role Great Britain

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Rules for an Effective Balancing Process

• stay vigilant--identify potential threats and
  opportunities
• seek allies when you cannot match the armaments
  of an adversary
• remain flexible in making alliances
• oppose any state that seeks hegemony
• be moderate in victory

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Arms Agreements

• the possibilities
• arms control
• disarmament
• bilateral agreements
• multilateral agreements

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Superpower Arms Control

• SALT I (1972)/SALT II (1979)
• stabilized nuclear arms race
• START agreements (1993-1997) and SORT (2002)
  reduce weapons
• ban all MIRVs on ICBMs
• major reductions in warhead numbers
• maintains MAD

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Figure 13.1 Countdown to Strategic Parity The
Negotiated End of the U.S.-Russian Arms Race
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Multilateral Treaties

• 1959 Antarctic Treaty
• 1963 Limited Test Ban Treaty
• 1967 Outer Space Treaty
• 1968 Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty
• 1971 Seabed Treaty
• 1972 Biological Weapons Convention
• 1981 Inhumane Weapons Convention
• 1986 CDE Agreement

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Multilateral Treaties, continued

• 1987 Missile Technology Control Regime
• 1990 Conventional Forces in Europe
• 1992 Open Skies Treaty
• 1993 Chemical Weapons Convention
• 1996 Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty
• 1998 Antipersonnel Landmines Treaty

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Map 13.1 Trick on Treaty? Can Arms Control
Treaties Arrest the Proliferation of Weapons?
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Power-Balance Breakdowns

• long peaces
• 1815-1848
• 1871-1914
• hegemonic stability theory
• Cold War balance of terror
• no major wars
• pax atomica

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Balance of Power Models

• unipolarity
• United States just after World War II
• United States now?--Bush doctrine
• bipolarity
• United States/Soviet Union 1949-1989
• NATO-Warsaw Pact
• extended deterrence
• multipolarity

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Multipolarity

• United States
• China
• Russia
• European Union
• Japan
• Brazil
• India

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NATO enlargement

• bandwagoning states want to ally with strongest
  power
• Partnership for Peace limited partnership with
  former Warsaw Pact members
• shifting coalitions within the alliance

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Map 13.2 The Enlarged NATO in the New
Geostrategic Balance of Power
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Discussion

• Why is alliance membership problematic?
• Should the United States seek more cooperation
  with allies, or should it continue with the Bush
  doctrine?
• To what extent is the balance of power a useful
  goal? Why is it a slippery concept?
• Was there long-term stability in the bipolar
  world of the Cold War?

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Discussion, continued

• Are we in a unipolar world with the United States
  as hegemon? If so, is this desirable?
• Which states can be considered major powers? Why?
  
• Why is the threat of massive nuclear war no
  longer the major issue in the minds of the public
  that it was during the Cold War?