War and Peace

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War and Peace

• Introduction to Worldwide Weapons Control
• By Pete Riley

Titan II nuclear missile in its silo
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The Cold WarHistory

• The Cold War began after World War Two. The
  main enemies were the United States and the
  Soviet Union. The Cold war got its name because
  both sides were afraid of fighting each other
  directly. In such a "hot war," nuclear weapons
  might destroy everything. So, instead, they
  fought each other indirectly. They supported
  conflicts in different parts of the world. They
  also used words as weapons. They threatened and
  denounced each other. Or they tried to make each
  other look foolish.

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• The United States and the Soviet Union were
  the only two superpowers following the Second
  World War. The fact that, by the 1950s, each
  possessed nuclear weapons and the means of
  delivering such weapons on their enemies, added a
  dangerous aspect to the Cold War. The Cold War
  world was separated into three groups. The United
  States led the West. This group included
  countries with democratic political systems. The
  Soviet Union led the East. This group included
  countries with communist political systems. The
  non-aligned group included countries that did not
  want to be tied to either the West or the East.

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• As World War II neared its conclusion, the
  future of Eastern Europe became a point of
  contention between the Soviet Union and its
  Western allies. The Soviet Union had been invaded
  via Eastern Europe in both the First and Second
  World Wars. In both conflicts, some of the
  nations of Eastern Europe had participated in
  those invasions. Both Wars had devastated the
  Soviet Union. An estimated twenty-five million
  Russians were killed during the Second World War.
  The Soviet Union was determined to install
  "friendly" regimes throughout Eastern Europe
  following the War. The strategic goal was to
  protect its European borders from future
  invasions. Since the Soviet Union was a communist
  state, the Soviet government preferred to install
  communist regimes throughout Eastern Europe. The
  Red Army was liberating the nations of Eastern
  Europe and therefore, the Soviet Union was in a
  position to influence the type of governments
  that would emerge following the War.

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• The cold war began because of this struggle for
  control of the politics of these nations. By
  1948, pro-Soviet regimes were in power in Poland,
  Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania, and Czechoslovakia.
• The Western democracies, led by the United
  States, were determined to stop the spread of
  communism and Soviet power.

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• While not being able to stop the Soviets in
  Eastern Europe, the U.S. and Britain were
  determined to prevent communist regimes from
  achieving power in Western Europe. During the
  Second World War, communists parties throughout
  Western Europe, had gained popularity in their
  resistance to Nazi occupation. There was a real
  possibility the communist parties would be
  elected in both France and Italy.

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• Harry Truman was the first American president to
  fight the Cold War. He used several policies. One
  was the Truman Doctrine. This was a plan to give
  money and military aid to countries threatened by
  communism. The Truman Doctrine effectively
  stopped communists from taking control of Greece
  and Turkey. Another policy was the Marshall Plan,
  which provided financial and economic assistance
  to the nations of Western Europe. This
  strengthened the economies and governments of
  countries in western Europe, and as the economies
  of Western Europe improved, the popularity of
  communist parties declined.

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• The United States also led the formation of the
  North Atlantic Treaty Organization in 1949. NATO
  was a joint military group. Its purpose was to
  defend against Soviet forces in Europe (or, as
  the saying went, "to keep Russia out, America in
  and Germany down). The first members of NATO
  were Belgium, Britain, Canada, Denmark, France,
  Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands,
  Portugal, and the United States. The Soviet Union
  and its east European allies formed their own
  joint military group -- the Warsaw Pact -- six
  years later.

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• Cold War tensions increased, then eased, then
  increased again over the years. The changes came
  as both sides actively tried to influence
  political and economic developments around the
  world. For example, the Soviet Union provided
  military, economic, and technical aid to
  communist governments in Asia. The United States
  then helped eight Asian nations fight communism
  by establishing the Southeast Asia Treaty
  Organization. In the mid 1950s, the United States
  began sending military advisers to help South
  Vietnam defend itself against communist North
  Vietnam. That aid would later expand into a long
  and bloody period of American involvement in
  Vietnam.

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A sign in Russian, English, and French near the
Berlin Wall warned "You are leaving the American
sector." The east side of Berlin can be seen over
the top of the wall.

• Tens of thousands of East Germans had fled to the
  west. East Germany's communist government decided
  to stop them. It built a wall separating the
  eastern and western parts of the city of Berlin.
  Guards shot at anyone who tried to flee by
  climbing over.

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• During Kennedy's second year in office, American
  intelligence reports discovered Soviet missiles
  in Cuba. The Soviet Union denied they were there.
  American photographs proved they were. The Cuban
  Missile Crisis easily could have resulted in a
  nuclear war. But it ended after a week.
  Khruschchev agreed to remove the missiles if the
  United States agreed not to interfere in Cuba.
• The Berlin Blockade and the Cuban Missile Crisis
  were major confrontations of the cold war

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• Some progress was made in easing Cold War
  tensions when Kennedy was president. In 1963, the
  two sides reached a major arms control agreement.
  They agreed to ban tests of nuclear weapons above
  ground, under water, and in space.
• Relations between east and west also improved
  when Richard Nixon was president. He and Leonid
  Brezhnev met several times. They reached several
  arms control agreements. One reduced the number
  of missiles used to shoot down enemy nuclear
  weapons. It also banned the testing and
  deployment of long-distance missiles for five
  years.

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Key Treaties in nuclear Disarmament

• Limited Test Ban Treaty (LTBT) - 1963 Prohibited
  all testing of nuclear weapons except
  underground.
• Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) - signed
  1968, into force 1970 An international treaty
  (currently with 189 member states) to limit the
  spread of nuclear weapons. The treaty has three
  main pillars nonproliferation, disarmament, and
  the right to peacefully use nuclear technology.

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World map with nuclear weapons development status
represented by color.       Five "nuclear
weapons states" from the NPT (red)       Other
states known to possess nuclear weapons
 (orange)     States formerly possessing nuclear
weapons  (purple)     States suspected of being
in the process of developing nuclear weapons
and/or nuclear programs  (yellow)     States
which at one point had nuclear weapons and/or
nuclear weapons research programs
(blue)      States that possess nuclear weapons,
but have not widely adopted them (pink)
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Key Treaties cont.

• Interim Agreement on Offensive Arms (SALT I) -
  1972 The Soviet Union and the United States
  agreed to a freeze in the number of
  intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and
  submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs)
  that they would deploy.
• Anti-ballistic Missile Treaty (ABM) - 1972 The
  United States ans Soviet Union could deploy ABM
  interceptors at two sites, each with up to 100
  ground-based launchers for ABM interceptor
  missiles. In a 1974 Protocol, the US and Soviet
  Union agreed to only deploy an ABM system to one
  site.
• Strategic Arms Limitation Treat (SALT II) - 1979
  Replacing SALT I, SALT II limited both the Soviet
  Union and the United States to an equal number of
  ICBM launchers, SLBM launchers, and heavy
  bombers. Also placed limits on Multiple
  Independent Reentry Vehicles (MIRVS).

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Nuclear warhead stockpiles of the United States
and the Soviet Union/Russia, 1945-2006.
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Key Treaties cont.

• Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) -
  1987 Created a global ban on short- and
  long-range nuclear weapons systems, as well as an
  intrusive verification regime.
• Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START I) -
  signed 1991, ratified 1994 Limited long-range
  nuclear forces in the United States and the newly
  independent states of the former Soviet Union to
  6,000 attributed warheads on 1,600 ballistic
  missiles and bombers.
• Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty II (START II) -
  signed 1993, never put into force Signed in 1993
  but never entered into force, START II was a
  bilateral agreement between the U.S. and Russia
  which attempted to commit each side to deploy no
  more than 3,000 to 3,500 warheads by December
  2007 and also included a prohibition against
  deploying multiple independent reentry vehicles
  (MIRVs) on intercontinental ballistic missiles
  (ICBMs)

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Key Treaties cont.

• Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty (SORT or
  Moscow Treaty) - signed 2002, into force 2003 A
  very loose treaty that is often criticized by
  arms control advocates for its ambiguity and lack
  of depth, Russia and the United States agreed to
  reduce their "strategic nuclear warheads" (a term
  that remain undefined in the treaty) to between
  1,700 and 2,200 by 2012.
• Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) - signed
  1996, not yet in force The CTBT is an
  international treaty (currently with 177 state
  signatures) that bans all nuclear explosions in
  all environments. While the treaty is not in
  force, Russia has not tested a nuclear weapons
  since 1990 and the United States has not since
  1992.

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Rogue States

• While the vast majority of states have adhered to
  the stipulations of the Nuclear Nonproliferation
  Treaty, a few states have either refused to sign
  the treaty or have pursued nuclear weapons
  programs while not being members of the treaty.
  The United States and the global community at
  large view the pursuit of nuclear weapons by
  these states as a threat to nonproliferation and
  world peace, and therefore seek policies to
  discourage the spread of nuclear weapons to these
  "rogue states".
• There are three known nuclear powers outside NPT
• Indian Nuclear Weapons - 70-120 active warheads
  
• Pakistani Nuclear Weapons - 30-80 active
  warheads
• North Korean Nuclear Weapons - 1-10 active
  warheads

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Rogue States

• Undeclared nuclear weapons states outside NPT
• Israeli Nuclear Weapons - 75-200 active
  warheads
• Former Nuclear Weapons States
• South African Nuclear Weapons
• Non-Nuclear Weapons States who have been
  suspected of having nuclear weapons programs
• Iran Nuclear Weapons Program
• Iraqi Nuclear Weapons Program
• Libyan Nuclear Weapons Program

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Indias Nuclear Program

• After 24 years without testing India resumed
  nuclear testing with a series of nuclear
  explosions known as "Operation Shatki." Prime
  Minister Vajpayee authorized the tests on April
  8, 1998, two days after the Ghauri missile
  test-firing in Pakistan.
• On May 11, 1998, India tested three devices at
  the Pokhran underground testing site, followed by
  two more tests on May 13, 1998. The nuclear tests
  carried out at 345 pm on May 11th were claimed
  by the Indian government to be a simultaneous
  detonation of three different devices - a fission
  device with a yield of about 12 kilotons (KT), a
  thermonuclear device with a yield of about 43 KT,
  and a sub-kiloton device. The two tests carried
  out at 1221 pm on May 13th were also detonated
  simultaneously with reported yields in the range
  of 0.2 to 0.6 KT.
• However, there is some controversy about these
  claims. Based on seismic data, U.S. government
  sources and independent experts estimated the
  yield of the so-called thermonuclear test in the
  range of 12-25 kilotons, as opposed to the 43-60
  kiloton yield claimed by India. This lower yield
  raised skepticism about India's claims to have
  detonated a thermonuclear device.
• Observers initially suggested that the test could
  have been a boosted fission device, rather than a
  true multi-stage thermonuclear device. By late
  1998 analysts at Lawrence Livermore National
  Laboratory had concluded that the India had
  attempted to detonate a thermonuclear device, but
  that the second stage of the two-stage bomb
  failed to ignite as planned.

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Pakistan Nuclear Program

• India's 1974 testing of a nuclear "device" gave
  Pakistan's nuclear program new momentum. Through
  the late 1970s, Pakistan's program acquired
  sensitive uranium enrichment technology and
  expertise. The 1975 arrival of Dr. Abdul Qadeer
  Khan considerably advanced these efforts. Dr.
  Khan is a German-trained metallurgist who brought
  with him knowledge of gas centrifuge technologies
  that he had acquired through his position at the
  classified URENCO uranium enrichment plant in the
  Netherlands. Dr. Khan also reportedly brought
  with him stolen uranium enrichment technologies
  from Europe. He was put in charge of building,
  equipping and operating Pakistan's Kahuta
  facility, which was established in 1976. Under
  Khan's direction, Pakistan employed an extensive
  clandestine network in order to obtain the
  necessary materials and technology for its
  developing uranium enrichment capabilities.

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• On May 28, 1998 Pakistan announced that it had
  successfully conducted five nuclear tests. The
  Pakistani Atomic Energy Commission reported that
  the five nuclear tests conducted on May 28
  generated a seismic signal of 5.0 on the Richter
  scale, with a total yield of up to 40 KT
  (equivalent TNT). Dr. A.Q. Khan claimed that one
  device was a boosted fission device and that the
  other four were sub-kiloton nuclear devices.
• On May 30, 1998 Pakistan tested one more nuclear
  warhead with a reported yield of 12 kilotons. The
  tests were conducted at Balochistan, bringing the
  total number of claimed tests to six. It has also
  been claimed by Pakistani sources that at least
  one additional device, initially planned for
  detonation on 30 May 1998, remained emplaced
  underground ready for detonation.
• Pakistani claims concerning the number and yields
  of their underground tests cannot be
  independently confirmed by seismic means, and
  several sources, such as the Southern Arizona
  Seismic Observatory have reported lower yields
  than those claimed by Pakistan. Indian sources
  have also suggested that as few as two weapons
  were actually detonated, each with yields
  considerably lower than claimed by Pakistan.
  However, seismic data showed at least two and
  possibly a third, much smaller, test in the
  initial round of tests at the Ras Koh range. The
  single test on 30 May provided a clear seismic
  signal.

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North Korea Nuclear Program

• Current Status
• North Korea conducted an underground nuclear
  explosive test on October 9, 2006. The estimated
  yield of the test was less than one kiloton.
• In a roundtable discussion with the United States
  and China in Beijing on April 24, 2003, North
  Korean officials admitted for the first time that
  they possessed nuclear weapons. Furthermore,
  North Korean officials claim to have reprocessed
  spent fuel rods and have threatened to begin
  exporting nuclear materials unless the United
  States agrees to one-on-one talks with North
  Korea.

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• Tensions between the United States and North
  Korea have been running especially high since, in
  early October of 2002, Assistant Secretary of
  State James Kelly informed North Korean officials
  that the United States was aware that North Korea
  had a program underway to enrich uranium for use
  in nuclear weapons. Initially North Korea denied
  this, but later confirmed the veracity of the US
  claim. In confirming that they had an active
  nuclear weapons program, they also declared the
  Agreed Framework nullified.
• The Agreed Framework signed by the United States
  and North Korea on October 21, 1994 in Geneva
  agreed that
• North Korea would freeze its existing nuclear
  program and agree to enhanced International
  Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards
• Both sides would cooperate to replace the
  D.P.R.K.'s graphite-moderated reactors for
  related facilities with light-water (LWR) power
  plants.
• Both countries would move toward full
  normalization of political and economic
  relations.
• Both sides will work together for peace and
  security on a nuclear-free Korean peninsula.
• And that both sides would work to strengthen the
  international nuclear non-proliferation regime.

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• Prior to the establishment of the Agreed
  Framework, intelligence sources believed that
  North Korea could have extracted plutonium from
  their reactors for use in nuclear weapons
  perhaps enough for one or two nuclear weapons.
• Nevertheless, it has remained unclear whether
  North Korea had actually produced nuclear weapons
  due to difficulties in developing detonation
  devices.

Seismic record of explosion from digital station
Vladivostok, Russia
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To be continued