IMBERJAPAN related programs

1
01/25
IMBER-JAPAN related programs Population outbreak
of marine life and Global Warming project N.
Yoshie, H. Saito, K. Komatsu, S. Ito (FRA)

• Contents
• 1. Introduction of IMBER related
  programs (1sheet)
• 2. "Population outbreak of marine
  life (18sheets)
• Jelly fish prediction Physical- ecological
  model
• 3. Global Warming project (4sheets)
• Future prediction of pelagic fish
• 4. Suggestions for GODAE-IMBER collaboration (1she
  et)

2
02/25
Introduction of IMBER-JAPAN related programs
1. Population outbreak of marine life
elucidate the mechanism of extreme increase of
marine life population (like sardine,
jellyfish). 2007-2012, 14 million EURO
year-1 2. Global Warming project
elucidate the effect of global warming to the
marine resources and predict the future
status of them. 2002-2011, 7 million EURO
year-1
3
03/25
Population outbreak of marine life project
Theme 1 Fish species alternation caused by
climate change.
Theme 2 Jellyfish outbreak induced by
anthropogenic environmental change.
Sometimes marine life populations show
abrupt increase or decrease. There are several
hypothesis to explain such kind of change e.g.
bottom up, top down and wasp-waist control.
However, the mechanism is still unclear.
Moreover, dominant forcing is natural in some
cases, while that is anthropogenic in the other
cases. This project focus on population
outbreaks and elucidate the mechanism of them.
There are two main themes. One is Fish species
alternation caused by climate change and another
is Jellyfish outbreak induced by anthropogenic
environmental change.
4
04/25
Issue of giant jellyfish
Recently, Japan have faced to big issue of
giant jellyfish Nemopilema nomurai.
The giant jellyfish are advected from the coastal
regions of the Yellow Sea and the northern East
China Sea to the Japan Sea during summer and
autumn. They stray into the set fishing net
in the coast and damage coastal fisheries
seriously.
Nemopilema nomurai
Giant jellyfish is a big issue in Japan and
several programs have been already started.
We introduce one example of giant jellyfish
prediction conducted under Japan Fisheries Agency
international program.
2m
weight150kg
5
05/25
Prediction of giant jellyfish migration courte
sy of K. Komatsu
Prediction in the Japan Sea JADE (based on
RIAMOM), 1/12 deg X 1/12 deg, Kalman filter
for SSH FRA Kyushu Univ.
source
Prediction in the Northwestern Pacific, Yellow
Sea, and East China Sea FRA-JCOPE, 1/12 deg X
1/12 deg IAU for SSH, SST, hydrographic data
FRA JAMSTEC
6
06/25
Year to year variation (prediction)
2004
courtesy of K. Komatsu
initial condition is based on the observations
2005
2006
15 Jun.
15 Jul.
30 Jul.
Interannual variations of migration route were
simulated.
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07/25
Example of prediction
5 Jul.
(from 05 July to 25 July)
There is a rapid connecting window in the yellow
sea (region 5).
15 Jul.
25 Jul.
This is only a simple example of jellyfish
prediction. Under the project, the relationship
between anthropogenic environmental change and
increase of jellyfish will be investigated.
courtesy of K. Komatsu
8
08/25
Issue of species alternation of pelagic fish
sardine
anchovy
mackerels
Large scale fluctuations in the populations
of sardines and anchovies have been observed
during the past century. Their amplitude is high
and contributes a disproportionate share of the
total variability of the world harvest of fish.
There are several intensive fishery grounds for
sardine and anchovy and sardine and anchovy show
asynchrony in all areas. e.g.) Benguela,
California, Humboldt, Kuroshio- Oyashio
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09/25
Sardine landing
Moreover, sardine shows synchrony in the whole
Pacific (Humboldt, California, and Kuroshio
areas) during 20th century.
?California ?Chilean ?Kuroshio (Kawasaki's FAO)
The same trend in the whole Pacific
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10/25
Climate index and the species alternation
On the other hand, sardine does not show any
synchrony between Pacific and Atlantic. The
asynchrony between sardine and anchovy reflects
not only the differences of their life histories,
but also bottom-up process driven by climate
shifts. The synchrony of sardine population
in the whole Pacific also suggests a bottom-up,
climate driven component.
Conduct physical-biological interdisciplinary
observation
Negative PDO (1945-75) Anchovy Dominant
Regime

• Positive PDO (1976-87)
• Sardine Dominant Regime
• High PP in West, Low PP in CC
• Faster Kuroshio and Slower CC

Chavez (2003)
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11/25
Focus area Kuroshio-Oyashio interfrontal zone
SST in the south of Kuroshio Extension shows high
correlation with mortality of juvenile sardine.
Noto Yasuda (1999)
SSTanomaly
Mortalityanomaly
We will investigate how does the SST in the south
of KE relate to sardine mortality.
Scenario 1 SST decrease means _at_ spin down of
KE enhancement of _at_ eddy activity, _at_
northward transport. Scenario 2 Cold SST
generates _at_ deep mixed layer enhancement of
_at_ primary production.
courtesy of A. Yatsu
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12/25
Intensive observation in the K-O region
Oyashio
DO-Chl.a- Glider
Streamer
Warm Core Ring
Ship observation
DO-Chl.a- ARGO
Kuroshio
Recirculaton
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13/25
Modeling approach
An ecosystem model NEMURO (North pacific
Ecosystem Model Used for Regional Oceanography)
was developed by CCCC/MODEL task team of PICES
(North Pacific Marine Science Organization).
More than 40 papers were already published. 1.
Time-series station (e.g., Fujii et al., 2002,
2007 Smith et al., 2005 Yoshie et al., 2003,
2007) 2. Mesoscale Iron fertilization experiment
(e.g., Fujii et al., 2005 Yoshie et al., 2005)
3. Global 3-D model for interannual variation
(e.g., Aita et al., 2003, 2007) 4. Regional 3-D
model for the global warming (e.g., Hashioka and
Yamanaka, 2007)
4Det
3Nut
3Zoo
2Phyt
Yamanaka et al., 2004
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14/25
Extended NEMURO (eNEMURO)Introducing subtropical
plankton and new temp. dep.
Yoshie et al in prep.
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15/25
Examples of NEMURO and eNEMURO
Both NEMURO and eNEMURO well reproduced the
seasonal changes observed in the subarctic region.
Basically, the same performance
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16/25
NEMURO For Including Saury and Herring
NEMURO.FISH
Megrey et al. (2007) Ito et al. (2004)
Please see detail on NEMURO and NEMURO.FISH
special issue on Ecol. Modelling, 202(1-2),
2007. edited by M. J. Kishi, B. A. Megrey, S.
Ito, F. E. Werner
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17/25
Example of NEMURO.FISH
Wet weight of Pacific saury
NEMURO.FISH successfully reproduced realistic
growth of Pacific saury.
Model
Obs.
Terms of the bioenergetics equation
NEMURO.FISH successfully estimated realistic
consumption rate of Pacific saury.
Obs. consumption
consumption
respiration
egg production
egestion
excretion
dynamic action
(Ito et al., 2004)
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18/25
Application of NEMURO.FISH toSardine Anchovy
NEMURO.SAN
Hold a workshop at Tokyo in Nov. 2005 to compare
4 current pelagic ecosystems California,
Benguela, Humboldt, Kuroshio-Oyashio. Agreed to
develop NEMURO.SAN.
Supported by FRA, APN, PICES, GLOBEC, IAI
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19/25
NEMURO.SAN

• Biological extensions
• Two species (sardine and anchovy)
• Individual-based
• Full life-cycle
• Dynamic predator on sardine and anchovy
• Spatial extensions
• Grid of cells

Anchovy Sardine Predator
NEMURO
Rose et al. (in prep.)
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20/25
Example of NEMURO.SAN
Year
1
10
20
30
40
50
Anchovy
Sardine
Predator
Rose et al. (in prep.)
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21/25
Global Warming project
monitoring in-situ data A-line,O-line,CK-line
satellite data
validation
validation
NEMURO eNEMURO
global model
nesting
retrospective analysis
validation
high-resolution model
NEMURO.FISH
validation
Future prediction
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22/25
Future prediction of Pacific saury
Wet weight of Pacific saury
Current
Predicted wet weight of saury decreases about 10
g than current.
2050
Egg production of Pacific saury
However, the egg production is predicted to
increase.
2050
Current
Ito et al. (2007)
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23/25
Future prediction of Pacific saury (cont.)
These changes are caused by change in the
migration route. Saury does not migrate to
the Kuroshio region in the first winter. Since
the prey density in the interfrontal region is
much higher than those in the Kuroshio region,
saury is able to product much eggs.
current
2050
Oyashio
inter-frontal zone
Kuroshio
Ito et al. (2007)
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24/25
Future perspective

• NEMURO.SAN coupled with 3D-NEMURO
• Future prediction
• Fish species alternation
• NEMURO.SAN 3D-NEMURO data
  assimilation

Example of 3D-NEMURO.FISH
Population of Pacific Saury
Feb.
Oct.
Weight and adv. mig.
Feb.
Oct.
Shido et al. (submitted)
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25/25
Suggestions to GODAE-IMBER collaboration

• Kuroshio-Oyashio interfrontal zone is one of
  the key areas for GODAE-IMBER collaboration
• The K-O region is one of the most attractive
  fields to elucidate relationship between ocean
  condition and marine ecosystem.
• Japan conducts several big observational programs
  in this region.
• DO-Chl.a-ARGO Glider will be deployed under
  those programs.
• Physical-biological (including fish) coupled
  model have been applied in this region.

26
Details of models
27
Governing equations of diatom in NEMURO
28
Physiological parameters in eNEMURO
In eNEMURO, phytoplankton is categorized four
groups by temperature and nutrient dependencies
of physiological parameters subarctic,
subtropical and global types.
29
Box model version of NEMURO and eNEMURO were
applied to 3 stations, OY (subarctic), B1
(subtropical) and CK11 (cont. shelf) under
boundary conditions based on observation.
10/15
Applications to three regions around Japan
St. CK11
30
Seasonal changes in the subtropical region
Performance of eNEMURO looks more reasonable than
that of NEMURO, especially in the reproduction of
zooplankton.
Diatom is too high
PS PM are dominant
ZSBac ZM are dominant
ZL is overestimated
31
Simulated seasonal changes at CK11 (cont.shelf)
Performance of eNEMURO looks more reasonable than
that of NEMURO.Overestimations of phytoplankton
and zooplankton arereduced.
Total-phyt Is overestimated
ZLZP Is overestimated
32
Bioenergetics Model for herring and saury
change of weight
P egg production
C consumption
E excretion
R respiration (loses through metabolism)
F egestion
S specific dynamic action (digesting food)
33
Assumptions in NEMURO.SAN

• Mortality
• Fishing age specific
• Egg to age1 implicit in spawner recruit
  relationship
• Natural constant predator dependent

• Predator
• Do not grow or die
• Move based on neighboring cell with highest prey
  biomass (anchovy sardine)
• Daily mortality rate of anchovy and sardine
  individuals in a cell is proportional to
  predator biomass in that cell

• Reproduction
• For simplicity, use spawner-recruit relationship
• sardine Jan.1-Sep.7, anchovy Jan.1-May.30
• Individuals mature at age-2
• sardine35.7g, anchovy 10.5g