Dr. David W. Berson

1

AREAA/NAHREP Real Estate and Policy
Conference Ritz-Carlton Hotel, Washington,
D.C. March 13-14, 2009

• Dr. David W. Berson
• Senior Vice President
• Chief Economist Strategist
• The PMI Group, Inc.

2
Conforming Mortgage Rates are Low (But Jumbo
Rates are Still High)
Jumbo 30-Year FRM
Conforming 30-Year FRM
Percent
Percent
Source Freddie Mac/ Wall Street Journal/ Haver
Analytics
3
Affordability is at Record Highs
Index
Index
Source National Association of Realtors/ Haver
Analytics Median IncomeQualifying Income100
4
Recent Mortgage Applications Rise was Short-Lived
Purchase (Right)
Refi (Left)
Index
Index
Source Mortgage Broker Association/ Haver
Analytics Index, March 16, 1990 100
5
How Far will Home Sales Decline?
Existing (Left)
Thousands
Thousands
New (Right)
Source National Association of Realtors/ Census
Bureau/ Haver Analytics
6
New Homes for Sale Down, but I/S Ratio Up
For Sale (Left)
I/S (Right)
Months
Thousands
Source Census Bureau/ Haver Analytics
7
Existing Homes for Sale and I/S Ratio Down
Modestly
I/S (Left)
For Sale (Right)
Months
Units
Source National Association of Realtors/ Haver
Analytics
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Home Price Deflation by Major Indices
FHFA Purchase- Only Index
Loan Performance National Index
Median Existing Home Price
Case-Shiller Composite- 20 Index
Case-Shiller National Index
Median New Home Price
0.0
-5.0
-10.0
-10.5
Percent
Percent
-15.0
-21.2
-21.3
-20.0
-21.4
-23.8
-25.2
-25.0
-26.0
Source NAR, Census Bureau, FHFA, Case-Shiller,
Loan Performance Decline of Home Price Indices
from Respective Peak Levels
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Are House Price Declines Finally Stabilizing?
FHFA Purchase Only Loan Performance Case-Shille
r (Composite 20)
Percent
Percent
Source FHFA/SP Case Shiller/Loan
Performance/Haver Analytics 12 Month Change in
House Prices
11
Riskiest MSAs (in the Top-50)
Source The PMI Group, Inc. - U.S. Market Risk
Index
12
90-Day Delinquencies Up, Especially for Subprime
Subprime
Percent
Percent
FHA
Prime Conventional
Source Mortgage Banker Association/ Haver
Analytics