Professor of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering

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Robert Socolow Princeton University
Professor of Mechanical and Aerospace
Engineering Co-Director, Carbon Mitigation
Initiative
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Putting CO2 Capture and Sequestration into First
Gear

• Robert Socolow
• Princeton University
• socolow_at_princeton.edu
• February 14th, 2008 
• Earth Institute, Columbia University Global Task
  Force on Carbon Capture and Storage

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Outline of talk

• A wedge of CCS is an immense undertaking.
• CCS is ready for full-scale deployment and
  on-the-job learning (both policy and technology)
• CCS deployment is urgently needed in the
  developing world.
• Conundrum Given the capital cost crunch, the
  sunk cost in existing plants, and the seduction
  of natural gas, is CCS-coal really imminent in
  the U.S.? Might CCS with coal-for-fuel arrive
  before CCS with coal-for-power?

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Stabilization Wedges
Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year
Current path ramp
60 GtCO2/yr 16 GtC/yr
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Eight wedges
30
Flat path
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0
1950
2000
2050
2100
Today and for the interim goal, global per-capita
emissions are 4 tCO2/yr.
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What is a Wedge?
A wedge is a strategy to reduce carbon
emissions that grows in 50 years from zero to 4
GtCO2/yr. The strategy has already been
commercialized at scale somewhere.
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Coal with Carbon Capture and Storage
Graphics courtesy of DOE Office of Fossil Energy
Effort needed by 2055 for 1 wedge Carbon capture
and storage (CCS) at 800 1000-MW coal power
plants. CCS at coal-to-liquids plants
producing 30 million barrels per day.
Graphic courtesy of Statoil ASA
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The Future Fossil Fuel Power Plant

• Shown here After 10 years of operation of a 1000
  MW coal plant, 60 Mt (90 Mm3) of CO2 have been
  injected, filling a horizontal area of 40 km2 in
  each of two formations.
• Assumptions
• 10 porosity
• 1/3 of pore space accessed
• 60 m total vertical height for the two
  formations.
• Note Plant is still young.

Note Injection rate is 150,000 bbl(CO2)/day, 3
billion barrels over 60 years.
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A 1000 MW coal plant with CCS requires lifetime
storage of 3x109 barrels of CO2
CO2 emissions rate 6 MtCO2/yr 150,000
bbl/day. Assume 1) 9 barrels CO2/t, and 2)
extra coal for CCS balances less than 100 CO2
capture. For 60-year plant lifetime 3 billion
barrels. Worlds oil fields larger than 3
billion barrels 80. Percent of total
production from these 80 fields 40. This is
familiar territory for the oil industry.
Including water reinjection, fluid flow in and
out of a 500 million barrels (Mbbl) field may be
3000 Mbbl. 500 fields are 500 (Mbbl) and
account for 2/3 of global production.
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30/tCO2 2/kWh induces CCS. Three views.
Transmission and distribution
Wholesale power w/o CCS 4 /kWh

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A coal-gasification power plant can capture CO2
for an added 2/kWh (30/tCO2). This triples
the price of delivered coal adds 50 to the
busbar price of electricity from coal adds 20
to the household price of electricity from coal.
Plant capital
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Coal at the power plant
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Retail power w/o CCS 10 /kWh
CCS
2
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Readiness CCS capabilities today

• Technologies for both capture and storage exist
  at scale. Linking them will get us started.
• Market niches exist
• where CO2 is cheap to capture (natural gas
  separation plants, hydrogen plants for ammonia
  and refineries)
• where CO2 is worth paying a lot for (Enhanced Oil
  Recovery, or EOR)
• Regulation is already developed for fluids
  injected below ground for natural gas seasonal
  storage, EOR, hazardous waste disposal, and
  municipal waste disposal.

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Already, in the middle of the Sahara!
At In Salah, Algeria, natural gas purification by
CO2 removal plus CO2 pressurization for nearby
injection
Separation at amine contactor towers
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A 500-mile CO2 pipeline built in the 1980s
Connects McElmo Dome, Colorado, to Permian Basin,
west Texas. CO2 is for enhanced oil recovery
McElmo Dome A huge natural CO2 reservoir In
place 1500 MtCO2 Production 15-20 MtCO2/yr

• Two conclusions
• CO2 in the right place is valuable.
• CO2 from McElmo was a better source than CO2 from
  any local power plant.

Rule of thumb 2 to 5 bbl incremental oil per
tCO2 injected.
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The developing world is expecting a huge
expansion of coal power
Coal input
Global CO2 emissions from coal 11 GtCO2 in 2005,
19 GtCO2 in 2030.
Source IEA, World Energy Outlook 2007, Reference
scenario.
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CO2 emission commitments from new power plants
100 GtCO2 not emitted 1 wedge
1400 GW new coal plants
Policy priority Deter investments in new
long-lived high-carbon stock Needed Commitment
accounting.
Credit for comparison David Hawkins, NRDC
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How can we redirect the expected 22 trillion
global investment in energy supply, 2006-2030?
Source IEA, World Energy Outlook 2007, Reference
scenario.
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China has installed SO2 scrubbers at an
astounding rate since 2005
100 GW
Slope100 GW/yr
100 GW
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U.S. Power Plant Capacity, by Vintage
300 GW of existing coal plants. Options
Retirement Rebuild, i.e., scrap-and-build End-o
f-pipe CO2 capture (vs. SOx-NOx Clear Skies
lock-in)
If we push hard on end-use efficiency, will our
current fleet suffice for 20 yrs?
Source EIA
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Efficient Use of Electricity
lighting
motors
cogeneration
Effort needed by 2055 for 1 wedge . 25
reduction in expected 2055 electricity use in
commercial and residential buildings
Target Commercial and multifamily buildings.
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Coal-based Synfuels with CCS Carbon capture
and storage
Effort needed for 1 wedge by 2055 Capture and
storage of the CO2 byproduct at plants producing
30 million barrels per day of coal-based
synfuels Assumption half of C originally in the
coal is available for capture, half goes into
synfuels.
Graphics courtesy of DOE Office of Fossil Energy
Result Coal-based synfuels have no worse CO2
emissions than petroleum fuels, instead of
doubled emissions.
Will the oil market lead to CCS with coal
synfuels before CCS with coal power?
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Further Considerations

• Carbon policy must assure that natural gas carbon
  emissions are priced.
• Regional CO2 pipeline systems are required, with
  trunks and branches. Future coal plant locations
  will be affected by available CO2 destinations.
• The co-sequestration option (putting sulfur
  underground) is clever, but is it workable?
• Storage pore space is another mineral reserve
  the more you use, the more you have.
• Never forget public acceptance!

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Avoid Mitigation Lite
Mitigation Lite The right words but the wrong
numbers. Companies investments are unchanged
the emissions price is a cost of business.
Individuals change few practices. For
specificity, consider a price ramp that is not
lite, one rising from zero to 30/tCO2 over 10
years.
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Benchmark 30/tCO2
Carbon emission charges in the neighborhood of
30/tCO2 can enable scale-up of most of the
wedges, if supplemented with sectoral policy to
facilitate transition.
30/tCO2 is the current European Trading System
price for 2008 emissions. At this price, current
global emissions (30 GtCO2/yr) cost 900
billion/yr, 2 of GWP.
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Some Carbon Policy Principles

• Establish a CO2 price schedule forceful enough to
  drive investment decisions.
• Make the price salient as far upstream as
  possible (best, when C comes out of the ground or
  across a border).
• Supplement the price with sectoral policies (RPS,
  CCS, CAFE, appliance mandates).
• Stimulate international coordination.
• Allow a teething period.

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Summing Up
If coal is as central to global development as it
now appears to be, an immense amount of CCS will
be deployed. The U.S. can deploy full-scale
projects now. The best reason for doing so is to
leverage investments outside the U.S. Domestic
deployment requires enticements to overcome high
capital costs, first-mover costs, and the
seduction of natural gas. Clear Skies needs to be
overhauled to encourage CCS at existing
plants. Success at aggressive end-use
electricity efficiency increases the enticements
required.
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Extra Slides
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Fill the Stabilization Triangle with Eight Wedges
in six broad categories
Energy Efficiency
Methane Management
Decarbonized Electricity
60 GtCO2/yr
Stabilization
Decarbonized Fuels
Triangle
Extra Carbon in Forests, Soils, Oceans
30 GtCO2/yr
2007
2057
Fuel Displacement by Low-Carbon Electricity
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U.S. Wedges
Source Lashof and Hawkins, NRDC, in Socolow and
Pacala, Scientific American, September 2006, p.
57
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The Wedge Model is the IPOD of climate change
You fill it with your favorite things. David
Hawkins, NRDC, 2007.Therefore, prepare to
negotiate with others, who have different
favorite things.
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Efficient Use of Fuel
Effort needed by 2055 for 1 wedge Note 1
car driven 10,000 miles at 30 mpg emits 4 tons of
CO2. 2 billion cars driven 10,000 miles per year
at 60 mpg instead of 30 mpg. 2 billion cars
driven, at 30 mpg, 5,000 instead of 10,000 miles
per year.
Property-tax systems that reinvigorate cities and
discourage sprawl Video-conferencing
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Four ways to emit 4 tonCO2/yr
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Smart CO2 injection
Two sets of measurements of the porosity at the
20-m-thick Krechba field in the Algerian desert,
near a CO2 injection well (thin tubing) Coarse
mapping by seismic echolocation soundings. Red
and yellow represent high porosity regions blue
indicates low porosity areas. Finer depiction
of porosity (looking like colored beads), within
a few centimeters of the well, by a down-hole
electric sensor probe. Fine-scale is used fo
steering the drilling apparatus toward regions of
high porosity.
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Field and Lab Studies of CO2 Effects on Cement
Source George Scherer, Princeton University.
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How long will CO2 stay underground and how long
is long enough?
Oil/gas reservoirs rare, 1,000,000 year
retention.
Large unconfined aquifers abundant, 1000 year
retention. This realization, reported in 1996 by
Sam Holloway, British Geological Survey for Joule
II, revolutionized the worlds perspective on
CCS.
How nearly permanent should storage be?
Environmental ethics and traditional economics
give different answers. Following a strict
environmental ethic that seeks to minimize the
impact of todays activities on future
generations, authorities might, for instance,
refuse to certify a storage project estimated to
retain CO2 for only 200 years. Guided instead by
traditional economics, they might approve the
same project on the grounds that two centuries
from now a smarter world will have invented
superior carbon disposal technology. RHS,
Scientific American, July 2005, p. 55.
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A sequence of CCS opportunities
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No CTL without CCS

• Climate-change concerns will dominate the future
  of coal.
• Key question is whether coal-to-liquids (CTL)
  option is competitive in a carbon-constrained
  world.
• Incremental costs of CO2 capture and storage
  (CCS), relative to costs with CO2 venting, are
  likely to be lower at CTL plants than at coal
  power plants.
• Competitiveness of CTL with CCS, vs. many other
  options, is uncertain
• CCS costs will come down with experience, but
• CCS costs could rise if public distrust inhibits
  CO2 storage.
• Policy recommendation CTL, starting with the
  first pilots, should proceed only with CCS.

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Global Task Force on Carbon Capture and
Sequestration
Inaugural meeting February 14, 2008