Using the American Community Survey for Rural Research

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Using the American Community Surveyfor Rural
Research
Rural Sociological Society Annual Meeting
Manchester, NH July 31, 2008

• Dr. Richard Rathge
• Professor and Director
• North Dakota State Data Center

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Presentation Objectives
1. Highlight some key challenges of using ACS for
rural research
2. Illustrate the need for a conceptual shift in
the way we approach rural research when using ACS
data
3. Initiate dialogue of implications for research
and policy
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Key Challenges for rural areas

• Effects of longer period estimates
• Consequences of smaller sample size
• Rule changes and their impact on trend analyses

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Period Estimates ACS vs. Census

• Census (conceptually point in time April 1st)
• ACS accumulates
• 12 months (1-year estimate)
• 36 months (3-year estimate)
• 60 months (5-year estimate)
• Think of shutter speed on camera

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Rural Statistical Areas Joint Project
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Nebraska ACS Data

• Thanks to Jerry Deichert for data
• Omaha city was an ACS test sites 1997-2004
• Can examine 1, 3, 5-year data

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Key Challenges for rural areas

• Effects of longer period estimates
• Consequences of smaller sample size
• Rule changes and their impact on trend analyses

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ACS sample size is smaller than Census

• One-year sample is 2.5 of HHs vs 16.7 for
  Census long form
• Over five-year period, ACS sample size is 12.5
  percent
• Therefore ACS sampling error will be larger

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Cass County, North Dakota (population 132,585)
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Grand Forks County, North Dakota
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People Moving to North Dakota Within the Past
Year by State of Origin 2006 ACS
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Comparison of 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year
Estimates of the Percentage of Persons in Poverty
for Omaha, NE 1999-2005 ACS
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Suppression Issues

• ACS using suppression similar to the 1970 and
  1980 decennial census
• Applied to base tables in 1 and 3-year data
• Use data release rules to protect user from
  tables whose reliability is unacceptable
• Suppresses entire table not just unreliable cells

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41 cells which will cause suppression for smaller
counties
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Key Challenges for rural areas

• Effects of longer period estimates
• Consequences of smaller sample size
• Rule changes and their impact on trend analyses

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ACS income not compatible with decennial census
data

• Decennial census asks income in previous calendar
  year
• ACS asks income in previous 12 months
• Both are inflation adjusted
• However, Bureau test results show decennial
  income consistently lower than ACS (4.4
  nationwide)
• Bureau suggests users exercise caution

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Residency rules very different

• Decennial census- usual place of residence
  using 6 month rule.
• ACS current residence during the last 2-months.
• Attempting to better count seasonal residents

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Once, Only Once, And In The Right Place

• Residence rules panel charged to examine census
  residence rule issues and make recommendations
  for research and testing to develop the most
  important residence rules for the 2010 census.

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Observations from ACS Question 25 (seasonal
housing) testing

• Preliminary assessment is that seasonal housing
  units do not appear to be an issue for areas
  receiving 1-year estimates
• Seasonal housing units are expected to cluster at
  smaller geographic levels

Remarks from Susan Schechter and Deborah Griffin,
ACS Office Staff
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1999-2001 Wisconsin test counties Michael
Starsinic, Census Bureau
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What lessons have we learned thus far?

• Need to be more mindful of our data users
• Rethink how we interpret and disseminate data to
  the public
• Examine ways in which we can better educate
  ourselves and data user

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The Message and the MediaThe 2005 ACS Rollout

• We reviewed 57 articles in 44 newspapers around
  the nation that appeared August 15-16
• First availability of estimates for all areas
  greater than 65,000 population
• Not just the NY Times and Washington Post other
  major metros (Seattle Post-Intelligencer, Houston
  Chronicle) and smaller papers (Toledo Blade,
  Lexington Herald-Leader, Anchorage Daily News. .
  .)

Research from the Committee on National
Statistics, National Research Council
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Key Interest Change Over Time

• Three-fourths of articles featured estimates of
  change from 2000 to 2005, mostly using the
  long-form sample for 2000
• But only 2 articles expressed caution about
  comparing the long-form sample and the ACS

Research from the Committee on National
Statistics, National Research Council
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Census Bureau Resources

• ACS website on Census Homepage
• Technical documents/user guides being produced by
  Census Bureau
• State Data Center websites

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Census Bureaus comparison matrix
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Demographic Presentation 2008

• Dr. Richard Rathge, Director
• North Dakota State Data Center, Fargo, ND NDSU,
  IACC 424, Fargo, ND 58105
• Richard.Rathge_at_ndsu.edu
• Phone [phone] Fax [phone]
• URL www.ndsu.edu/sdc