Group support methods

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Group Decision Support Strategies

• C.Latha
• Asst.prof
• St.Pious X PG(MBA) college for women

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Group Decision Support Strategies

• Brainstorming
• Nominal group technique
• Delphi technique
• Computer assisted decision making
• GDSS Group Decision Support System
• CSCW Computer Supported Collaborative Work

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Brainstorming

• Group process for gathering ideas pertaining a
  solution to a problem
• Developed by Alex F Osborne to increase
  individuals synthesis capabilities
• Panel format
• Leader maintains a rapid flow of ideas
• Recorder lists the ideas as they are presented
• Variable number of panel members (optimum 12)
• 30 min sessions ideally

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Brainstorming

• Step 1 Preliminary notice
• Objectives to the participants at least a day
  before the session ? time for individual idea
  generation
• Step 2 Introduction
• The leader reviews the objectives and the rules
  of the session
• Step 3 Ideation
• The leader calls for spontaneous ideas
• Brief responses, no negative ideas or criticism
• All ideas are listed
• To stimulate the flow of ideas the leader may
• Ask stimulating questions
• Introduce related areas of discussion
• Use key words, random inputs
• Step 4 Review and evaluation
• A list of ideas is sent to the panel members for
  further study

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Brainstorming

• Large number of ideas in a short time period
• Simple, no special expertise or knowledge
  required from the facilitator
• - Credit for another persons ideas may impede
  participation
• Works best when participants come from a wide
  range of disciplines

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Nominal group technique(NGT)

• Organised group meetings for problem
  identification, problem solving, program planning
• Used to eliminate the problems encountered in
  small group meetings
• Balances interests
• Increases participation
• 2-3 hours sessions
• 6-12 members
• Larger groups divided in subgroups

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NGT

• Step 1 Silent generation of ideas
• The leader presents questions to the group
• Individual responses in written format (5 min)
• Group work not allowed
• Step 2 Recorded round-robin listing of ideas
• Each member presents an idea in turn
• All ideas are listed on a flip chart
• Step 3 Brief discussion of ideas on the chart
• Clarifies the ideas ? common understanding of the
  problem
• Max 40 min

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NGT

• Step 4 Preliminary vote on priorities
• Each member ranks 5 to 7 most important ideas
  from the flip chart and records them on separate
  cards
• The leader counts the votes on the cards and
  writes them on the chart
• Step 5 Break
• Step 6 Discussion of the vote
• Examination of inconsistent voting patterns
• Step 7 Final vote
• More sophisticated voting procedures may be used
  here
• Step 8 Listing and agreement on the prioritised
  items

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NGT

• Best for small group meetings
• Fact finding
• Idea generation
• Search of problem or solution
• Not suitable for
• Routine business
• Bargaining
• Problems with predetermined outcomes
• Settings where consensus is required

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Delphi Technique

• Group process to generate consensus when decisive
  factors may be subjective
• Used to produce numerical estimates, forecasts on
  a given problem
• Utilises written responses instead of brining
  people together
• Developed by RAND Corporation in the late 1960s
• First use in military applications
• Later several applications in a number of areas
• Setting environmental standards
• Technology foresight
• Project prioritisation
• A Delphi forecast by Gordon and Helmer

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Delphi

• Characteristics
• Panel of experts
• Facilitator who leads the process
• Anonymous participation
• Easier to express and change opinion
• Iterative processing of the responses in several
  rounds
• Interaction with questionnaires
• Same arguments are not repeated
• All opinions and reasoning are presented by the
  panel
• Statistical interpretation of the forecasts

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Delphi

• First round
• Panel members are asked to list trends and issues
  that are likely to be important in the future
• Facilitator organises the responses
• Similar opinions are combined
• Minor, marginal issues are eliminated
• Arguments are elaborated
• ? Questionnaire for the second round

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Delphi

• Second round
• Summary of the predictions is sent to the panel
  members
• Members are asked the state the realisation times
• Facilitator makes a statistical summary of the
  responses (median, quartiles, medium)

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Delphi

• Third round
• Results from the second round are sent to the
  panel members
• Members are asked for new forecasts
• They may change their opinions
• Reasoning required for the forecasts in upper or
  lower quartiles
• A statistical summary of the responses
  (facilitator)

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Delphi

• Fourth round
• Results from the third round are sent to the
  panel members
• Panel members are asked for new forecasts
• A reasoning is required if the opinion differs
  from the general view
• Facilitator summarises the results
• Forecast median from the fourth round
• Uncertainty difference between the upper and
  lower quartile

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Delphi

• Most applicable when an expert panel and
  judgemental data is required
• Causal models not possible
• The problem is complex, large, multidisciplinary
• Uncertainties due to fast development, or large
  time scale
• Opinions required from a large group
• Anonymity is required

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Delphi

• Maintain attention directly on the issue
• Allow diverse background and remote locations
• Produce precise documents
• - Laborious, expensive, time-consuming
• - Lack of commitment
• Partly due the anonymity
• - Systematic errors
• Discounting the future (current happenings seen
  as more important)
• Illusory expertise (expert may be poor
  forecasters)
• Vague questions and ambiguous responses
• Simplification urge
• Desired events are seen as more likely
• Experts too homogeneous ? skewed data

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Groupware

• A large number software packages available for
• Decision analysis
• Group decision making
• Voting
• Web based applications
• Interfaces to standard software Excel, Access
• Advantages
• Graphical support for problem structuring, value
  and probability elicitation
• Facilitate changes to models relatively easily
• Easy to conduct sensitivity analysis
• Analysis of complex value and probability
  structures
• Allow distributed locations

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Multivoting

• In democracy most decisions are made in groups or
  by the community
• Voting is a possible way to make the decisions
• Allows large number of decision makers
• All DMs are not necessarily satisfied with the
  result
• The size of the group doesnt guarantee the
  quality of the decision
• Suppose 800 randomly selected persons deciding on
  the materials used in a spacecraft

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Groupthink Symptoms

• 1. Illusion of Invulnerability
• 2. Belief in Inherent Morality of the Group
• 3. "Hear no evil, see no evil, speak no evil".
• 4. What other people think of the group.
• 5. Self-Censorship Gloss over the bad.
• 6. Illusion of Unanimity
• 7. Direct Pressure on Dissenters
• 8. Self-Appointed Mind Guards Mindguards protect
  a leader from assault by troublesome ideas
• Source Irvin Janus

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Groupthink Examples

• Pearl harbor
• Kennedys Bay of Pigs fiasco
• Johnsons escalation of the Vietnam war
• Nixons Watergate break in
• Reagans Iran Contra scandal cover ups
• Clintons approval on the Waco
• Texas raid.

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Misc terms