Changing Regional Demographics: Issues and Strategies to Consider

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Changing Regional DemographicsIssues and
Strategies to Consider
Mid-West Electric Consumers Association 49th
Annual Meeting Denver, Colorado December 12,
2006

• Dr. Richard Rathge
• Professor and Director
• North Dakota State Data Center
• North Dakota State University

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Presentation Objective
1. To place regional demographic changes into
historical context.
2. To preview demographic trends projected for
the next 15 years
3. To begin a dialogue regarding issues and
challenges
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Whats Driving Regional Change?
1. Economic transitions creating residential
consolidation
2. Corresponding demographic adjustments
3. New economic paradigm
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Whats Driving Regional Change?
1. Economic transitions creating residential
consolidation
2. Corresponding demographic adjustments
3. New economic paradigm
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Nonmetro Farming-Dependent Counties, 1989
Counties with 20 percent or more of income (labor
or proprietor) from farming
Other nonmetro counties
Farming counties
Metro counties
Source Bureau of Economic Analysis
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30-Mile Radius of Cities with 1,500 Persons or
More in the 9-State Great Plains Area
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Net Domestic Migration Rates Per 100 Persons in
the United States by County 1990 to 1999
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Current Population
83
50
45
26
32
24
23
10
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Data Source EASI Analytics
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Percent of Co-op Consumers by State
10 States have 57 10 States have 26 27 States
have 17
Data provide by Mike Ganley
Data 2001
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Co-op Market Share Consumers by State
Market Share of States States With Over
30 States With 20 - 30 States With Under 20
Data provide by Mike Ganley
Data 2001
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Population Per Square Mile, 2000
Rhode Island
Source National Atlas of the United States,
Bureau of the Census
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Whats Driving Regional Change?
1. Economic transitions creating residential
consolidation
2. Corresponding demographic adjustments
3. New economic paradigm
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Figure 13. Percent Change in Persons Ages 20 to
24 for the U.S. by County 1990 to 2000
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A Maturing Age Distribution, 2000(National data)
85 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-4
9 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-
4
Female
Male
Population (in millions)
Source U.S. Census Bureau, International Data
Base.
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A Maturing Age Distribution, 2020
85 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-4
9 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-
4
Female
Male
Population (in millions)
Source U.S. Census Bureau, International Data
Base.
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SOURCES APPA Survey American Public Power
Association NRECA Survey
Data provide by Mike Ganley
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IF YES Confidence in Co-ops Plan In Meeting
Projected Workforce Needs
Have Plan
SOURCES APPA Survey American Public Power
Association NRECA Survey
Data provide by Mike Ganley
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Households
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Average Household Size
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Households by Type
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Whats Driving Regional Change?
1. Economic transitions creating residential
consolidation
2. Corresponding demographic adjustments
3. New economic paradigm
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The New Economy Paradigm
(C.K. Wong, Chinese General Chamber of Commerce)

• Industrial Age
• Old Paradigm
• Mass Production
• Mass Media
• Mass Marketing
• Economy of Scale

• Information Age
• New Paradigm
• Customized Production
• Individualize Presentation
• One-to-One Marketing
• Economy of Scope

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High-Tech vs. Low-Tech GDPU.S. GDP Growth
Percent Change, Year Ago
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High-Tech Real GDP
Low-Tech Real GDP
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5
4
3
2
1
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
Source Milken Institute
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Service-producing industries continue to lead
employment growth
Millions of nonfarm wage and salary jobs
Goods-producing
Service-producing
Source Bureau of Labor Statistics
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Total Personal Income in North Dakota by Source
1969 to 2003
Thousands of Dollars (000)
Note Data exclude income from dividends,
interest, and rent and income from private
pension programs. Source U.S. Bureau of Economic
Analysis, REIS
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Source Havens and Schervish, 2006 Wealth
Transfer in North Dakota
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How to Position Communities for the Future

• Collaboration and interdependence

• Innovations through technology

• Visionary and risk-taking decisions

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Demographic Presentation 2006

• Dr. Richard Rathge, Director
• North Dakota State Data Center, Fargo, ND NDSU,
  IACC 424, Fargo, ND 58105
• Richard.Rathge_at_ndsu.edu
• Phone [phone]
• Fax [phone]
• URL www.ndsu.edu/sdc