Topic 5

1
Topic 5 Migration and Urbanization

• A Migration Issues
• B Migration Theory
• C Refugees
• D Urbanization

2
Migration Issues
A

• 1. Types of Migration
• What are the major forms of migration?
• 2. Selective Migration
• Why migration can be considered as a selective
  process?
• 3. Brain Drain
• What is the extent of movements of skilled labor?

3
Types of Migration
1

• Emigration and immigration
• Change in residence.
• Relative to origin and destination.
• Requires information
• People and conditions.
• Two different places.
• Two different times.
• Duration
• Permanent.
• Seasonal / Temporary.
• Choice / constraint
• Improve ones life.
• Leave inconvenient / threatening conditions.

A
Problems or benefits?
Emigrant
Immigrant
B
Problems or benefits?
4
Types of Migration
1

• Gross migration
• Total number of people coming in and out of an
  area.
• Level of population turnover.
• Net Migration
• Difference between immigration (in-migration) and
  emigration (out-migration).
• Positive value
• More people coming in.
• Population growth.
• 44 of North America and 88 of Europe.
• Negative value
• More people coming out.
• Population decline.

Gross migration
Immigration
Emigration
Net migration
5
Annual Net International Migration by Continent,
1990-95
1
6
Net Migration, 2000-05
1
7
Types of Migration
1

• International Migration
• Emigration is an indicator of economic and/or
  social failures of a society.
• Crossing of a national boundary.
• Easier to control and monitor.
• Laws to control / inhibit these movements.
• Between 2 million and 3 million people emigrate
  each year.
• Between 1965 and 2000, 175 million people have
  migrated
• 3 of the global population.

8
Migration Policies and Global Migration Patterns
1
Period Policies Pattern
Before 1914 Open policies (showing up). Immigration as a source of labor and development. From developed (Europe) to developing countries (Americas, Africa, Australia). Immigration from Europe between 1880 and 1910 was exceeded 25 million.
1920s and 1930s Closed door linked with the economic depression. Deportation of immigrants. Limited migration.
After 1945 More open policies. Reconstruction in Europe (12 of labor force) and economic growth in America. Beginning to shift from developing to developed countries (12).
After 1973 Relatively open policies, but with more stringent requirements. Growth of refugees and illegal immigration. From developing to developed countries (88). 3 million illegal immigrants entering the US per year.
9
World Migration Routes Since 1700
1
European
African (slaves)
Indian
Chinese
Japanese
Majority of population descended from immigrants
10
Total Slave Population, United States (1790-1860)
11
Major International Migration Patterns, 1990s
1
12
International Migration Main Destination
Countries, 1997
1
13
Immigration to the United States, 1820-2003
1
Latin America Asia
Southeast Europe
Germany Scandinavia
British Isles
14
Region of Birth of the Foreign-Born Population
1850 to 2000
1
15
Top 10 Countries of Origin for US Legal
Immigrants, 1995-2003
1
16
US Population by Race and Ethnicity, 1990-2050
1
17
Illegal Aliens in the United States by Country of
Origin, 1990-2000 (in 1,000s)
1
18
Types of Migration
1

• Internal Migration
• Within one country.
• Crossing domestic jurisdictional boundaries.
• Movements between states or provinces.
• Little government control.
• Factors
• Employment-based.
• Retirement-based.
• Education-based.
• Civil conflicts (internally displaced population).

19
Migration by Major Metropolitan Areas in the
United States, 1990-98 (in 1,000s)
1
20
Types of Migration
1

• Local Migration
• No state boundaries are crossed.
• Buying a new house in the same town or city.
• Difficult to research since they are usually
  missed in census data.
• Based on change of income or lifestyle.
• Often very high levels of local migration.
• Americans change residence every 5 to 7 years.

Central City
Suburb
21
Types of Migration
1

• Voluntary migration
• The migrant makes the decision to move.
• Most migration is voluntary.
• Involuntary
• Forced migration in which the mover has no role
  in the decision-making process.
• Slavery
• About 11 million African slaves were brought to
  the Americas between 1519 and 1867.
• In 1860, there were close to 4 million slaves in
  the United States.
• Refugees.
• Military conscription.
• Children of migrants.
• Situations of divorce or separation.

22
Types of Migration
1
Type Characteristics
International Crossing a boundary easier to control regulated difference in income 2-3 million per year.
National Between states or provinces little control employment opportunities education retirement.
Local Within a city/region change of income or lifestyle.
Voluntary The outcome of a choice.
Involuntary The outcome of a constraint.
23
Selective Migration
2

• Context
• Many migrations are selective.
• Do not represent a cross section of the source
  population.
• Differences
• Age.
• Sex.
• Level of education.
• Age-specific migrations
• One age group is dominant in a particular
  migration.
• International migration tends to involve younger
  people.
• The dominant group is between 25 and 45.
• Studies and retirement are also age-specific
  migrations.

24
Population Pyramid of Native and Foreign Born
Population, United States, 2000 (in )
2
Foreign Born
Native
Male
Female
Female
Male
Age
25
Selective Migration
2

• Sex-specific migrations
• Males
• Often dominant international migrations.
• Once established, try to bring in a wife.
• Females
• Often dominate rural to urban migrations.
• Find jobs as domestic help or in new factories.
• Send remittances back home.
• Filipino females 17-30 to Hong Kong and Japan.
• Mail-order bride
• 100,000 150,000 women a year advertise
  themselves for marriage.
• About 10,000 available on the Internet at any
  time.
• Mainly from Southeast Asia and Russia.
• Come from places in which jobs and educational
  opportunities for women are scarce and wages are
  low.

26
Selective Migration
2

• Education-specific migrations
• May characterize some migrations (having or
  lacking of).
• High level of education attained by most
  contemporary Asian immigrants to the USA and
  Canada.
• Educational differences
• 21 of all legal immigrants have at least 17
  years of education.
• 8 for native-born Americans.
• 20 of all immigrants do not have 9 years of
  schooling.
• Foreign students
• Often do not return to their home countries after
  their education.
• Often cannot utilize what they have learned.
• Since 1978 some 130,000 Chinese overseas students
  have returned while some 250,000 have remained
  abroad.
• Most research-oriented graduate institutions have
  around 40 foreign students.

27
Selective Migration
2

• Immigration and jobs
• Related to the economic sector.
• High level
• Filling high skilled position in science,
  technology and education.
• Not enough highly trained personnel in the US.
• Result in recruiting abroad (see brain drain).
• Low level
• Filling low paid jobs (minimum wage) that most
  people do not want (agriculture and low level
  services).
• Maintain low wages in low skilled jobs.
• Possibility of an informal economy.

28
Brain Drain
3

• Definition
• Relates to educationally specific selective
  migrations.
• Some countries are losing the most educated
  segment of their population.
• Can be both a benefit for the receiving country
  and a problem to the country of origin.
• Receiving country
• Getting highly qualified labor contributing to
  the economy right away.
• Promotes economic growth in strategic sectors
  science and technology.
• Not having to pay education and health costs.
• 30 of Mexicans with a PhD are in the US.

29
Brain Drain
3

• Country of origin
• Education and health costs not paid back.
• Losing potential leaders and talent
• Between 15 and 40 of a graduating class in
  Canada will move to the US.
• Long term impact on economic growth.
• Possibility of remittances.
• Many brain drain migrants have skills which they
  cant use at home
• The resources and technology may not be available
  there.
• The specific labor market is not big enough.
• May eventually come back with skills and
  connections
• Korea, Taiwan, China and India.

30
Non US Citizens with Science and Engineering
Doctorates in the United States, 1999
3
31
Likelihood of the Well-Educated to Stay, 1998
3
10 most likely
32
Percentage of College Educated Citizens Living
Abroad
33
H-1B Work Visas by Major Occupation, 1999-2000
3
34
H-1B Work Visas by Level of Education, 1999-2000
3
35
Migration Theory
B

• 1. Push - Pull Theory
• What are the major push and pull factors
  behind migration?
• 2. Economic Approaches
• How can migration be explained from an economic
  perspective?
• 3. Behavioral Explanations to Migration
• How can migration be explained from a human
  behavior perspective?

36
Push - Pull Theory
1

• Context
• Migrations as the response of individual
  decision-makers.
• Negative or push factors in his current area of
  residence
• High unemployment and little opportunity.
• Great poverty.
• High crime.
• Repression or a recent disaster (e.g., drought or
  earthquake).
• Positive or pull factors in the potential
  destination
• High job availability and higher wages.
• More exciting lifestyle.
• Political freedom, greater safety and security,
  etc.

37
Push - Pull Theory
1

• Intervening obstacles
• Migration costs / transportation.
• Immigration laws and policies of the destination
  country.
• The problem of perception
• Assumes rational behavior on the part of the
  migrant
• Not necessarily true since a migrant cannot be
  truly informed.
• The key word is perception of the pull factors.
• Information is never complete.
• Decisions are made based upon perceptions of
  reality at the destination relative to the known
  reality at the source.
• When the migrants information is highly
  inaccurate, a return migration may be one
  possible outcome.

38
Push - Pull Theory
1
Intervening obstacles
Origin
Destination
Positive factors
Neutral factors
Negative factors
39
Push-Pull Factors for Chinese Students Deciding
to Say in the United States, 1997
1
40
Push-Pull Factors for Chinese Students Deciding
to Return to China, 1997
1
41
Economic Approaches
2

• Labor mobility
• The primary issue behind migration.
• Notably the case at the national level.
• Equilibrate the geographical differences in labor
  supply and demand.
• Accelerated with the globalization of the
  economy.
• Remittances
• Capital sent by workers working abroad to their
  family / relatives at home.
• 62 billion in 1999
• 16 billion each year goes out of Saudi Arabia as
  remittances.
• 2nd most important most important source of
  income for Mexico (after oil and before tourism)
  16.6 billion in 2004.

Labor shortages High wages
Migration
Surplus labor Low wages
42
Workers Remittances, top 10 countries, 1995-1999
(in US)
2
43
Behavioral Explanations of Migration
3

• Life-cycle factors
• Migration linked to events in ones life.
• People in their 30s are the most mobile.
• Education, career, and family are being
  established.
• Later in life, flexibility decreases and inertia
  increases.
• Retirement often brings a major change.
• Large migrations of retired people have been
  occurring in the direction of amenities-oriented
  areas.

25 50 75
Stay with parents
Move to college
First job
Marriage
Promotion
Children leave home
Retirement
Loss of mobility
44
Behavioral Explanations of Migration
3

• Migrants as risk-takers
• Why, among a population in the same environment
  (the same push factors), some leave and some
  stay?
• Migrants tend to be greater risk-takers, more
  motivated, more innovative and more adaptable.
• Non-migrants tend to be more cautious and
  conservative.
• Can be used to explain the relative dynamism in
  some societies, like the USA since the 1800s.
• Summary
• No one theory of migration can adequately explain
  this huge worldwide phenomenon.
• Each brings a contribution to the understanding
  of why people move.

45
Refugees
C

• 1. Definition
• What is a refugee and how one qualifies for this
  status?
• 2. Contemporary Evolution
• How the refugee situation has evolved in time?

46
Definition
1

• The United Nations definition
• The 1951 Convention Regarding the Status of
  Refugees and the 1967 Protocol on the Status of
  Refugees
• ..... any person who, owing to a well-founded
  fear of being persecuted for any reasons of race,
  religion, nationality, member of a particular
  social group or political opinion, is outside the
  country of his nationality, and is unable or,
  owing to such fear, is unwilling to avail himself
  of the protection of that country. .
• The problem lies in the definition of who is a
  refugee.
• There are no international agreements to protect
  people who cross boundaries for their economic
  survival.

47
Definition
1

• Conditions to qualify for refugee status
• Political persecution must be demonstrated.
• An international boundary must be crossed
• Domestically displaced persons do not qualify.
• Protection by ones government is not seen an
  alternative
• The government may be the persecutor.
• Could be incapable of protecting its citizens
  from persecution.

48
Definition
1

• Environmental and economic refugees
• People who can no longer gain a secure livelihood
  in their homelands because of what are primarily
  environmental or economic factors of unusual
  scope.
• Sources
• Natural disaster.
• Human alterations to the environment climate
  change.
• Contamination (pollution) of the environment.
• Lack of development and opportunities.
• Render continued residence in that particular
  location unsustainable.
• Mozambique, February 2000
• Floods made 1 million people homeless.
• Destroyed agricultural land and cattle.

49
Contemporary Evolution
2

• Origins
• The first recorded refugees were the Protestant
  Huguenots who left France to avoid religious
  persecution.
• About 200,000 at the end of the 17th century.
• Went to England, Germany, the Netherlands,
  Switzerland, and the English colonies in North
  America.
• Pre-WW II and during WW II
• Primarily political elites
• Fleeing repression from the new government, which
  overthrew them.
• Usually small in number and often had substantial
  resources available to them.
• War-driven refugees
• About 12 of the European population displaced.
• Usually could be expected to repatriate after the
  war ended.

50
Contemporary Evolution
2

• Post WW II
• Change in the patterns of refugee flows
• The majority of refugees are now coming from the
  developing world.
• De-colonization in Asia, Africa, and the
  Caribbean
• Political unrest in many newly independent
  states.
• Multi-ethnic nature of those states.
• The result of the drawing of colonial boundary
  lines by Europeans.
• The Cold War also increased political instability
  in a number of countries.
• Political instability in Latin America increased
  due to the vast social inequalities existing in
  that region.
• New kind of refugee flow
• Large and of long (or permanent) duration.

51
Contemporary Evolution
2

• Current issues
• Refugees are a controversial issue
• Especially in the developed world.
• Only a small share of the asylum seekers are
  granted the refugee status.
• Less than 20 for the European Union.
• Increasingly, refugees are no longer accepted.
• Economic refugees resorting to asylum as the only
  way to get a legal status.
• 1996 amendment to US immigration law
• Enforcing detention for all refugees entering the
  United States.
• INS can summarily deport those who arrive without
  valid travel documents.
• 4,000 detained on any given day.

52
Refugees per Continent, 1981-2003
2
53
Origins and Destinations of Refugees, 2003
2
Red Origin Green Destination
54
Main Asylum Countries and Internally Displaced
Population, 2001
2
55
Urbanization
D

• 1. Context and Issues
• What is urbanization and what are its causes?
• 2. Why People Move to Urban Areas?
• 3. Megacities and Urban Regions
• What is the current state of global urbanization?
• 4. Shantytowns
• What characterizes the prevailing urban
  environment?

56
Context and Issues
1
Population growth (Natural increase or migration)

• What is urbanization?
• Urbanization is the agglomeration of population
  in cities
• Growth of the proportion of the population living
  in cities.
• Demographic process
• Urban population growth (natural increase or
  migration).
• Infrastructure process
• Expansion of urban infrastructures and land use.
• Economic process
• Creation of secondary, tertiary and quaternary
  sectors.
• Creates a society where values and lifestyles are
  urban.

Urban expansion
57
Context and Issues
1

• Causes of urbanization
• Historical
• Defense.
• Trade routes.
• Social
• Increased social interactions.
• Institutions representing a society (government,
  religion education).
• Economic
• Linked with agricultural surpluses.
• Increased economic opportunities.
• Access to labor.
• Specialization.
• Economies of scale and of agglomeration.

58
Context and Issues
1

• The urban explosion
• Urban population growth is the most important
  change in population geography.
• About 50 of the global population, 3 billions,
  lives in cities.
• Almost all the population growth between 2000 and
  2030 will occur in cities.
• By 2050, 6.2 billion people will live in cities,
  more than the current (2000) population.
• Much of this growth will come in the worlds
  poorest countries.

59
World Urban Population, 1950-2000 with
Projections to 2020 (in billions)
1
60
Annual Growth of World and Urban Populations,
1950-2030 (in millions)
1
61
Context and Issues
1

• Developed countries
• Developed countries are already urbanized.
• Passed through the rural - urban migration
  process.
• Concurrent with demographic transition and
  industrialization.
• Developing countries
• Going through a major phase of urbanization.
• Urbanization mainly occurs in developing
  countries
• Will account for 93 of the 2 billion increase in
  the global urban population between 2000 and
  2030.
• Latin America and East Asia is farthest along.
• The rest of Asia is a little further behind.
• Africa is urbanizing more slowly than the other
  world regions.

62
Stages of Urbanization
1
Terminal Stage
Initial Stage
Transition Stage
100
Demographic transition
Rural to urban migration
Developed countries
80
Developing countries
Rural Society
Urban Society
60
Urban Population
40
Least developed countries
20
Urbanization
0
Time
63
Percentage of Population Urban, 2000
1
64
of Urban Population, 1950-2030
1
65
Urban Population, 1950-2030 (in millions)
1
66
Why People Move to Urban Areas?
2

• Context
• 50 million new urbanites each year.
• 1 million new urbanites each week.
• About 155,000 new urbanites each day.
• About 75,000 rural poor migrate to cities each
  day.
• Major changes in the developing world.
• Migration
• Makes a significant contribution to the growth of
  urban areas.
• Accounts for between 40 and 60 of annual urban
  population growth in the developing world.
• Huge rural-to-urban migration potential in areas
  having a large rural population.

67
Why People Move to Urban Areas?
2

• Push-Pull considerations
• Both are affecting rural-urban migrations.
• Pull of the cities may determine the
  destination.
• Migrants are pulled toward cities
• Prospect of jobs and higher incomes.
• Most early urbanization was the result of pull
  considerations.
• Pushed out of rural areas
• Push factors predominate as the motivation to
  move.
• Poverty, lack of land, declining agricultural
  work, war, and famine.
• Play more importance today than push
  considerations.

68
Push - Pull Factors for Urbanization in the Third
World
2
PUSH
PULL
Rural
Urban
Instability Rural structures Low
employment Demographic pressure
Employment market Better services Low
barriers Modernity
Migration
18-35
69
Why People Move to Urban Areas?
2
Factor Condition Issues
Instability / Disasters / Wars / Famines Push Creation of refugees. Cities as safe heavens.
Expectation of jobs Pull Higher wages but higher living costs. Large labor markets. Informal sector dominant.
Deterioration of rural life Push Demographic growth. Land tenure (landless peasants). Mechanization (surplus labor).
Transportation Intervening opportunities Increased mobility. Lower costs. Construction of roads and rails. Access to rural markets.
More and better services Pull Better schools and health services. Access to water and electricity. Overcrowding and pollution.
70
of the Population Having Access to Public
Infrastructure in Developing Countries, 1990
2
71
Why People Move to Urban Areas?
2

• Urbanization and economic survival
• Decision to move to an urban area
• Part of a complex survival strategy.
• Families minimize risk by placing members in
  different labor markets.
• Largest labor market maximizing the chances of
  employment and survival.
• Cities are the largest labor markets.
• Favelas (squatter settlements) of Rio de Janeiro
• Cannot be understood without reference to the
  latifundia land system in rural Brazil.
• Characterized by large landholdings owned by a
  limited elite.
• Peasants as contract labor with no ownership.

72
Megacities and Urban Regions
3

• Concentration
• An increasing share of the global population
  lives in megacities
• Megacities (over one million).
• Supercities (over 4 million).
• Supergiants (over 10 million).
• First modern megacity, Beijing 1770.
• 1900
• 233 million urbanites (14 of the global
  population) 20 megacities.
• 1950
• 83 megacities.
• 34 cities in developing countries.
• 2000
• 3 billion urbanites (50) 433 megacities.
• All new millionaire cities are in developing
  countries.
• 11 of the 15 largest cities are in developing
  countries.

73
Number of Cities with Populations of 5 Million or
More, 1950-2000
3
74
Cities of more than 8 million, 1950-2000
3
1950 1970 1990 2000
Developed countries Developed countries Developed countries Developed countries
New York London New York London Tokyo Los Angeles Paris Tokyo New York Los Angeles Moscow Osaka Paris Tokyo New York Los Angeles Moscow Osaka Paris
Developing countries Developing countries Developing countries Developing countries
None Shanghai Mexico City Buenos Aires Beijing Sao Paulo Mexico City Sao Paulo Shanghai Calcutta Buenos Aires Bombay Seoul Beijing Rio de Janeiro Tianjin Jakarta Cairo Delhi Manila Mexico City Sao Paulo Shanghai Calcutta Bombay Beijing Jakarta Delhi Buenos Aires Lagos Tianjin Seoul Rio de Janeiro Dhaka Cairo Manila Karachi Bangkok Istanbul Teheran Bangalore Lima
75
Cities with more than 5 Million People, 2000
3
76
The 15 Largest cities in the world, 2000-2015
3
77
Shantytowns
4

• Context
• Many of the new urban dwellers, particularly
  women and their children, are among the poorest
  people in the world.
• Difficulty to access housing
• Economic costs.
• Availability.
• 100 million people are homeless.
• 928 million live in precarious housing conditions
  (slums).
• Shantytowns informal habitat or squatter
  housing
• Favelas (Brazil).
• Pueblos jovenes (Young towns).
• Asentamiento irregulares (Irregular
  settlements).
• Villas miserias (Miserable villages, Argentina).
• Jughi Jopri (India).

78
Shantytowns
4

• Definition
• Dwellings are built by the current or original
  occupant
• Rudimentary construction materials.
• Did not receive a construction permit.
• Do not follow norms in terms of housing and
  sanitation.
• Inhabitants have no legal title to the land
• Most are located in areas being declared
  inhabitable.
• Own by the municipality.
• Abandoned private land.
• Exploiting a legal vacuum of land ownership.
• Lack of urban services
• Generally not serviced by public utilities such
  as tap water, electricity, roads, public
  transportation and sewage.

79
Shantytowns
4

• Setting
• Shantytowns are constructed over the least
  desirable land.
• Put the population at risk.
• Caracas, Venezuela, 1999
• Mudslides killed 50,000 inhabitants.
• Created 400,000 homeless.
• 500,000 of the 6 million inhabitants were
  considered at high risk.
• Bhopal, India, 1984
• Union Carbide release of toxic cocktail.
• 500,000 people exposed.
• 16,000 deaths.

Disamenity
Disamenity
CBD
Commercial/Industrial
Elite Residential Sector
Zone of Maturity
Zone in Situ Accretion
Zone of peripheral squatter settlements
80
Shantytowns
4

• Habitat
• Informal settlements
• Perhaps the most visible sign of widespread
  poverty.
• About 25 of the surface of cities in developing
  countries is covered by shantytowns.
• 30-60 of the urban population.
• Emerged in all Third World cities
• Following the demographic explosion.
• Now the norm more than the exception.
• Incapacity of private and public instances
• Provide low price housing for the majority of the
  population.
• The State more concerned about providing housing
  for its public servants and its middle class.
• Housing crisis that could not be solved.

81
Shantytowns
4

• Growth process
• People expelled from gentrification in downtown
  areas.
• Inflow of people expelled from poverty in rural
  areas.
• In several cases, rightful owners of land have
  divided it in small lots and sold it in order to
  have a higher profit.
• In some instances, land was illegally sold to
  dwellers being framed.
• Is there any hope?
• Housing has always been a priority for
  investment.
• As the population of Third World cities gets
  higher incomes, the priority will be improving
  their housing conditions.
• On the long run, shantytowns are likely to
  disappear (or at least become less significant).

82
Shantytowns as Share of the Total Population
4