Arguments of Relationship

1
Arguments of Relationship

• Causal Arguments

2
Three Types of Causal Arguments

• I. Covering laws physical or material
  conditions which bring about an effect
  
• II. Assigning responsibility human agents with
  the power to choose precipitate certain events
  
• III. Explanation provide reasons to justify a
  causal connection. Used in connection with I and
  II

3
Covering Law Statements
4
Covering Law example

• 1837 report by Doctor Schwann
• Boil meat thoroughly and put it in a clean bottle
  and lead air into it that has passed through
  red-hot pipesthe meat will remain fresh for
  months. But in a day or two after you remove the
  stopper and let in ordinary air, with its little
  animals, the meat will begin to smell dreadfully
  it will teem with wriggling, cavorting creatures
  a thousand times smaller than a pinhead. It is
  these beasts that make meat go bad.

5
Kinds of Covering Law Statements

• Contributory Causes
• Necessary Causes
• Sufficient Causes
• Intervening Causes
• Counteracting Causes

6
Creating Causal Claims Using Mills Methods

• Method of Agreement (presence)
• Method of Difference (absence)
• Combined absence and presence
• Method of concomitant variation
• Correlation
• Time-series methods
• Method of residues
• Multiple regression

7
Mills methods

• Joe likes gin tonic with ice makes him feel
  relaxed and happy
  
• Fred has rum and coke with ice makes him feel
  relaxed and happy
  
• Peter enjoys scotch on ice makes him feel
  relaxed and happy
  
• Alan loves vodka and orange with ice makes him
  feel relaxed and happy

8
Mills methods (example)

• Joan has had severe allergic skin reactions five
  times this summer. On the first occasion, she had
  multiple mosquito bites, had used a new perfumed
  soap, and was exposed to severe heat. On the
  second occasion, she had been bitten by a wasp,
  had used perfumed bubble bath, had been suffering
  from a mild flu and had a number of mosquito
  bites. On the third occasion, she was again
  bitten by a wasp, had been wearing a new blouse
  with specially treated fabric, had many mosquito
  bites, and had slept at a motel where the sheets
  were laundered with scented soap. The fourth
  time, she had been exposed to heat, had attended
  a theatrical performance where she had to sit
  next to someone wearing powerfully scented
  cologne, had mosquito bites, and had eaten sharp
  cheese. On the fifth occasion, Joan had drunk
  Wine, sat next to someone wearing a strong
  perfume, had been stung by a wasp and had a
  number of mosquito bites.

9
Mills Methods (example)

• One hundred fifty students are enrolled in a
  university course on algebra. Because the
  available classrooms can hold only 75 students,
  the class is split in two on the basis of student
  timetable convenience. One section is taught by
  Dr. Smith in person, whereas in the other section
  students view Dr. Smiths lectures on television.
  In both sections, two graduate assistants are
  present the same two graduate assistants attend
  each section, mark the tests and conduct the
  tutorials. The textbook is the same for each
  class. Dr. Smith composes and marks all
  examinations for both sections, He is widely
  regarded as an uninspiring lecturer with a rather
  arrogant and unattractive personality. The live
  section is held at 900 am, whereas the
  television section is held at 100 pm. At the
  end of the course, students are asked to evaluate
  it. In the morning section the average
  evaluation is 7.5 of 10 and there is no
  evaluation lower than 5. In the afternoon
  section, the average evaluation is 4.5 out of 10
  and there is no evaluation higher than 6.

10
Mills Methods (example)

• Among factors responsible for adolescent
  students using drugs, one of the most potent is
  social conformity pressures. A large-scale 1971
  survey of over 8,000 secondary school students in
  New York State revealed that adolescents are much
  more likely to use marijuana if their friends do
  than if their friends do not.
• To some extent initiation into the drub scene
  is a function of modeling parental drug use. ...
  But the most striking finding was the role that
  peers played. Association with other drug-using
  adolescents was the most important correlate of
  adolescent marijuana use. Only 7 percent of
  adolescents who perceive none of their friends to
  use marijuana use marijuana themselves, in
  contrast to 92 percent who perceive all their
  friends to be users. As can be seen, the
  influence of best friends overwhelms that of
  parents.

11
Assigning Responsibility

• Human Motivation as Causal

12
Assigning Responsibility

• Why do people choose evil over good? How does
  perverse motivation work in argument?
  
• Examples
• Motive in court of law
• Policy arguments such as regulatory action
• Conspiracy theories

13
Assigning Responsibility

• Jim Marrs, Crossfire
• These sins of coverup and suppression of
  evidence can be laid squarely at the feet of the
  federal government.
  
• No agents of the Dallas police, organized crime,
  Fidel Castro, or Nikita Kruschev could have
  accomplished these documented efforts to hide the
  truth of the assassination

14
Explanations
15
Explanations

• Explanations serve to support Type I and Type II
  causal arguments
  
• Unlike Type I and Type II, explanations are
  logical, not empirical
  
• Standards for judging explanations
• Can the explanation account for all elements of
  the causal relationship?
  
• Is the explanation simple?

16
Explanation Example

• The practice arose to prevent the population from
  consuming the animal on which Indian agriculture
  depends. During the First Millennium B.C., the
  Ganges Valley became one of the most densely
  populated regions of the world.
• Where previously there had been only scattered
  villages, many towns and cities arose and
  peasants farmed every available acre of land.
  Kingsley Davis, a population expert at the
  University of California at Berkeley, estimates
  that by 300 BC between 50 million and 100 million
  people were living in India. The forested Ganges
  valley became a windswept semidesert and signs of
  ecological collapse appeared droughts and floods
  became commonplace, erosion took away the rich
  topsoil, farms sharnak as population increased,
  and domesticated animals became harder and harder
  to maintain.

17
Explanation (cont)

• It is probable that the elimination of meet
  eating came about in a slow and practical manner.
  The farmers who decided not to eat their cows,
  who saved them for procreation to produce oxen,
  were the ones who survived the natural disasters.
  Those who ate beef lost the tools with which to
  farm. Over a period of centuries, more and more
  farmers probably avoided beef until an unwritten
  taboo came into existence.
• Only later was the practice codified by the
  priesthood. While Indian peasants were probably
  aware of the role of cattle in their society,
  strong sanctions were necessary to protect zebus
  from a population faced with starvation. To
  remove temptation, the flesh of cattle became
  taboo and the cow became sacred.
• Marvin Harris, Indias Sacred Cow, Human
  Nature, 1978.
  

18
Force of Causal Argument

• The force of causal argument is a statement about
  the certainty of the connection between cause and
  effect, not a statement of its probable truth.
  
• The force of a causal argument is inversely
  proportional to qualifiers and reservations.
  
• Two statements of force
• how possibly
• Why necessarily

19
Purposes of Causal Arguments

• To produce an evaluation
• To show how a plan can solve a problem
• by eliminating a necessary cause of the problem
• by adding a sufficient cause of an effect

20
Refuting Causal Claims

• Absence test
• Correlation does not equal causation
• Alternative causes
• Intervening and counteracting causes
• Distinguishing necessary and sufficient causes
  from other types