Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.

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Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. "Unlike the plagues
of the dark ages or contemporary diseases (which)
we do not yet understand, the modern plague of
overpopulation is soluble by means we have
discovered and with resources we possess. What
is lacking is not sufficient knowledge of the
solution, but universal consciousness of the
gravity of the problem and the education of the
billions who are its victims." Acceptance
Speech Margaret Sanger Award in Human Rights,
1966
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World Population Growth Through History
Billions
12
11
2100
10
9
Modern
Age
Old
8
Iron
Bronze
Middle
Stone
New Stone Age
Age
Ages
Age
Age
7
Future
6
2000
5
4
1975
3
1950
2
1900
1
1800
Black Death

The Plague
2000
A.D.
A.D.
A.D.
1000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
1 million
A.D.
A.D.
A.D.
2000
1000
1
B.C.
B.C.
B.C.
B.C.
B.C.
B.C.
B.C.
years
3000
4000
5000
Source Population Reference Bureau and United
Nations, World Population Projections to 2100
(1998).
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World Now Adding 80 Million People/Yr

• Census Bureau has historically underpredicted
  Population Growth or will this decline be
  because of environmental meltdown?

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Population Growth Rates by Country

• Low Growth Rates
• Austria (0.09), Czech Rep. (-0.06), Croatia
  (-0.03), Japan (0.02), the EU (0.15), Former
  Soviet Blocs (neg.), Botswana (-0.04)
• High Growth Rates
• ? Burundi (3.7), Congo (3.0), Mali (2.63),
  Afghanistan (2.7), Angola (2.5), Saudia Arabia
  (2.2), Syria (2.3)
• Lower Growth Rates but Large Populations
• ? China (0.6), India (1.4), U.S. (1.2),
• Indonesia (1.4), Brazil (1.0), Bangladesh
  (2.1),
• Pakistan (2.1), Russia (-0.37), Nigeria
  (2.4),
• Japan (0.02)

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Exponential Growth

• Doubling time(yrs) 70/P
• P growth per year
• For India, P 1.4
• So, at present rate of pop increase,
  Indias
• pop will grow from 1 to 2 billion by 2050.
• (The total world pop in 1950 was 2.5 billion.)

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During the 1990s, every one of the 50 states
increased in population, the first time this has
ever happened

• In total, 33 million people were added to the
  USA, the largest ever decadal increase

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U.S. Population Growth Outstripping Census
Estimates

• Based on the 1990 Census and their yearly
  estimates, the U.S. Census Bureau predicted an
  increase from 249 to 275 million Residents by the
  Year 2000. They were only off by 7 million
  people, as 282 million were counted.
• This gave us a growth rate of more than 13 for
  the decade (1.25/yr), above the world average
  and the highest growth rate of any developed
  nation.
• This puts us close to the High Scenario for
  U.S. Population Projections for the Rest of this
  Century (next page) ?
• Immigration is now responsible for 70 of U.S.
  Population Growth (this includes U.S. born
  children of immigrants)

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Census Bureau Projections for U.S. Population

• High Migration Rates Currently Have Us Near the
  High Line

High
Middle with migration
Middle w/o migration
Low
Source U.S. Census Bureau, Nat Pop Proj, 1999
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Public Policy Institute of California
Fall 2004 survey
of 2500 California Adults in English, Spanish,
Chinese, Korean, Vietnamese
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What about traffic congestion on freeways and
major roads?

• Big problem 59
• Somewhat of a problem 26

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How about population growth and development?

• Big problem 35
• Somewhat of a problem 33

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Availability of housing that you can afford?

• Big problem 55
• Somewhat of a problem 23

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A zillion lists have popped up recently advising
us how to conserve energy resources

• But traffic, congestion, and affordable housing
  issues are not going to get any better even if
  everyone switches to driving a Toyota Prius
  instead of an SUV -- the freeways will be just as
  crowded

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A very short quiz on just how crowded is
California??

• Question 1 what was the 1 county in the entire
  USA in the late 1940s in terms of value of
  agricultural production?

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Question 2

• Which is more densely populated (has more people
  per square mile)
• California or Europe?

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These population projections depict only one
possible course of future population change,
i.e., the one reflecting recent trends in
fertility, mortality, and migration. These
projections do not necessarily show what is most
desirable but rather what can be reasonably
expected if current trends continue until the
year 2050. -- California Department of Finance,
Demographic Research Unit, 2004. (emphasis added)
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Some effects of population growth TrafficCalifo
rnia contains 5 of the top 12 U.S. cities with
worst travel mobility (annual delay per
traveler) 1 Los Angeles/Long Beach/Santa
Ana 2 San Francisco/Oakland 9
Riverside 11 San Jose 12 San Diego Air
Pollution37 of Californias 58 counties are in
Non-Attainment Status for regulated air
pollutants. Farmland Lossfarmland is being
converted to urban development at the rate of
50,000 acres per year.
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Rare and Threatened Species
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• California rank among the states
• First in biodiversity (6,717 species)
• First in endemic species (1,295)
• Second in percentage of species at risk (28.5)
• iv. Third in extinct species (53)

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Table 1. Human-caused reductions in westside
California plant communities and formations
(after Noss and Peters 1995).
Habitat loss due to population growth presents
the single greatest problem facing native plants
and animals in California. --California
Department of Fish and Game, Atlas of the
Biodiversity of California, 2003.
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A CAPS study shows that, in recent decades, more
than 90 of Californias population increase is
due to immigrants and their U.S. born children
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Inconvenient Truths

• The US is the largest contributor of any country
  to greenhouse gases (although, unfortunately,
  China will be overtaking us pretty soon).
• An Inconvenient Truth Website Take Action
  greenhouse gas, is responsible more than any
  other country for Fluorescent light bulbs,
  thermostats, HVAC filters, EnergyStar appliances,
  water heaters, hot water, clotheslines, vampire
  electronics, recycle, plant a tree, insulate
  home, carpool, check your tires, fly less.
  these are all good ideas. Inexplicably, having
  two children or less is not on the list!
• Per capita CO2 emissions track population growth
  remarkably well, so doing all of the above will
  not make a significant impact in our global
  warming problem -- unless we also stabilize our
  population

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To slow U.S. growth Approximately 2/3 of U.S.
growth is a result of immigration (1.6 million
immigrants 800,000 births to immigrants out of
annual growth of 3.3 million), therefore reducing
immigration is the single most effective policy
to slow U.S. growth. To slow California
growth Over 90 of California growth is a
result of immigration (250,000 immigrants
250,000 births to immigrants out of annual
growth of 550,000), therefore reducing
immigration is the single most effective policy
choice to slow California growth.
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Senator Gaylord Nelson, Founder of Earthday

• In this country its phony to say Im for the
  environment, but not for limiting immigration.

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China the USA the biospheres worst enemies

• Converging together to the same destructive
  destiny

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• China started with a big population and a low per
  capita environmental impact, that is now rapidly
  increasing.
• The USA started with a big per capita impact and
  a small population, that, due to massive
  immigration, is now rapidly increasing.

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Mao Zedong Every mouth is born with two hands
attached

• A very widespread, present policy, debate in the
  USA Do immigrants add more to society than they
  cost society?
• The two quotations are, for all practical
  purposes, operationally equivalent their focus
  is short-term and, for China, demonstrably
  disastrous in the long term.

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The great environmental economist, Prof. Herman
Daly warned

• We are treating the planet as if it were a
  business in liquidation.
• BZs personal favorite example is the
  overfishing and trashing of the oceans, the
  dynamiting of coral reefs, etc. The late Jacques
  Cousteau The oceans are dying

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Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. "Unlike the plagues
of the dark ages or contemporary diseases (which)
we do not yet understand, the modern plague of
overpopulation is soluble by means we have
discovered and with resources we possess. What
is lacking is not sufficient knowledge of the
solution, but universal consciousness of the
gravity of the problem and the education of the
billions who are its victims." Acceptance
Speech Margaret Sanger Award in Human Rights,
1966
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Albert Einstein

• Those who have the privilege to know, have the
  duty to act

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Lists of things people can do to mitigate global
warming, but that completely ignore
overpopulation

• Sierra Club
• Audubon Society
• Al Gores list
• NRDC
• Union of Concerned Scientists
• Environmental Defense
• Outside Magazines Green Issue
• Times Global Warming Survival Guide

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Calif. Gov. Ronald Reagan (1974)

• Our country and state have a special obligation
  to work toward stabilization of our own
  population so as to credibly lead other parts of
  the world toward population stabilization.

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President Dwight D. Eisenhower

• Whatever America hopes to bring to pass in the
  world must first come to pass in the heart of
  America.

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• CO2 emissions have been tracking population
  growth for decades.
• Biofuels cant do much for a country experiencing
  rapid population growth. (2006 U of Minnesota
  study shows that all of our corn and soybeans
  would supply 12 and 6 of our gasoline and diesel
  oil, respectively. U.S. population growth would
  completely negate that in less than 10 years.)
• Californias alternative fuels plan (Jan 2007)
  calls for a 25 reduction in CO2 emissions (to
  1990 levels) by 2020 all while CA population is
  projected to grow by 48 from 1990 levels -- with
  virtually 100 of that due to immigration.

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Coefficient of Determination (R2) 0.8805. Over
88 of the variability around the straight line
is explained by the population variable.
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Coefficient of Determination (R2) 0.8167. Over
81 of the variability around the straight line
is explained by the population variable.