Demographic development

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Demographic development

• Point of departure The demographic equation
• Popt1 - Popt(Birthst - Deathst) (Inmigt -
  Outmigt)
• Popt1 Popt Total population change
• Births-Deaths Natural population change (CBR
  CDR)
• InternalIn-migration Out-migration
  Net-migration
• ExternalImmigration Emigration Net-migration
• Central concept Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
• standardised for changes in the age structure
• How many children a woman will have if the
  age-specific fertility rates should prevail in
  the future
• Reproduction level 2.1

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Other indicators of interestDependency ratio
Tot pop/active ages (15/20-64)Post-active
dependency ratio65/active agesThe Share of
ChildrenThe Share of Elderly
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Population a prerequisite for development

• Production factor both in goods and service
  sectors
• Income creating
• Purchasing power
• Consumer
• Large cohorts have greater impact on the economy
  than small cohorts long demographic waves with
  economic and social effects
• Reproduction factor
• Population growth stimulus for economy and
  wealth

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Problems with population growth

• The law of diminishing returns
• Population grows faster than GDP GDP/cap falls
• Decreased purchasing power bad consumers
• Self-subsistence
• Fast population growth fast urbanisation
  (overcrowding, slums)
• Unemployment, underemployment
• Environmental problems
• Ecological problems, eroding production
  potentials
• Vicious circles
• A third world point of view

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Problems with population decline

• Hamper consumption and investment
• Low economic activity
• Stagnation
• Depopulation, dying-out regions
• Ageing
• Press on health and elderly care
• Press on pensions
• Low reproduction potential
• Positive side New technology, higher
  productivity, new substitution possibilities

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• International migration some specific (European)
  issues
• Labour market migration has slowed down
• Internal migration from peripheral to
  metropolitan areas
• East-west migratory flows in Europe
• Borders are still barriers
• Asylum seekers from the third world
• Increased labour market segementation regional
  polarisation
• Migrations of highly qualified persons
• Migrations of retired people
• In the future replacement migration?

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