Title: Demographic Dividend for Africa
1Demographic Dividend for Africas Development
Transformation
- By
- Dr Ademola Olajide
- Head of Division
- African Union Commission
2Concept of Demographic Dividend
- Rapid and sustainable economic growth as
consequence of a demographic transition from high
fertility and high mortality to low fertility and
low mortality equilibrium reducing the
dependency ratio and increasing the size of the
working age population - This large cohort of working age population
presents the opportunity to stimulate economic
growth demographic dividend
3Concept of Demographic Dividend
4Economic profile
- Economic growth in Africa has averaged over 5 per
cent per annum during 2000 and 2009 - Soaring prices for commodities such as oil and
minerals have helped lift GDP since 2000 - Commodities accounted for only about a third of
the newfound growth. The rest resulted from
internal structural changes that have spurred the
broader domestic economy - Given the prevailing global economic challenges,
African countries urgently need to
elaborate strategies to capitalize on
the recent growth momentum
5Economic profile
- Africas labor force is expanding with more than
500 million people of working age, projected to
exceed 1.1 billion (by 2040) more than in China
or Indialifting GDP growth - With the current trends, Africa with a large
share of the worlds naturally resources, 60 of
the global uncultivated arable land should be
able to turn this potential (1 in 5 of the
planets young person) to sustainable and
equitable growth
6Population size
- Africa continues to have one of the highest
population growth rates globally - Africa is the youngest continent, with almost 200
million people aged between 15 and 24 - Africa is currently experiencing a youth bulge,
with about 42 per cent of the entire population
was under the age of 15
7Fertility
Total fertility as a measure of fertility is
defined as the total number of children a woman
would bear if fertility rates remained the same
during her lifetime.
Total fertility rate of Africa and its
sub-regions(4)
All regions in Africa have a TFR above
replacement levels
8Fertility and Demographic Dividend in Africa
- The reductions in fertility rate in Africa is yet
to reach levels that experts believe can optimize
harnessing the demographic dividend - Several factors account for fertility reduction
including urbanization, modernization, education
etc as economic conditions of women increase
fertility rates will reduce - Also as fertility rates reduce, economic
conditions of women improve
9Mortality
Mortality plays a key role in the demographic
dividend. Demographic transition refers to the
change from high and unpredictable mortality and
fertility to low and stable mortality and
fertility rates. (6)
Infant Mortality Rate(7) Under-five Mortality Rate (per 1,000 live births)(8). Maternal Mortality Rate (per 100,000 live births)
African IMR has decreased 1990 172 2000 154 2010 119 African Under-5 MR have decreased 1990 88 deaths 2010 57 deaths MMR has decreased 1990 850 deaths 2010 500 deaths
10Mortality reduction and Demographic Dividend in
Africa
- Mortality reduction across Africa as a whole
falls below the target set by the Millennium
Development Goals - Mortality reduction requires not just a
strengthening of the health system but also
deliberate attention to issues of Sexual and
Reproductive Health and Rights of all population
segments
11Harnessing the DD for Africas transformation
- The demographic dividend has been described as
that one-time jump in economic growth consequent
upon increased economic output of the productive
population - Focused policies must therefore be implemented to
improve the quality of that crop of human capital
as well create opportunities for their productive
engagement in economic activities
12Harnessing the demographic dividend
13Strategies to harness a Demographic Dividend in
Africa
- Promote gender equality, equity and empowerment
of women (50) - Improve access to Qualitative Education - Each
year of schooling is associated with an increase
in wages (10 or more) - Enhance health status including access to FP
services and information
14Strategies to harvest from the Demographic
Dividends in Africa - 2
- Strengthen Food and Nutrition Security - one in
five children in Africa is moderately or severely
underweight, with significant economic losses
(COHA) - Facilitate Policy Coherence e.g. promote decent
jobs for young persons, between 2000 and 2008
Africa created 73 million jobs but only 16
million jobs were created for young people 15 and
24
15Conclusion
- As African states experience current economic
growth rates efforts must be consciously
undertaken to optimize the demographic window
currently open to the continent - As African economies prepare to soar, we must
remember the African proverb the quality of a
birds flight depends on the quality of its meal
before take off
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