Meeting Emissions Targets:

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Meeting Emissions Targets Carbon Trading, Taxes,
and Offsets
Bill Chameides, Dean Nicholas School of the
Environment Duke University bill.chameides_at_duke.e
du 919.724.0312
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Acknowledgement Tim Profeta and Nicholas
Institute staff
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The Policy Options-What can we do? -

• Can not reverse the warming
• Even if we stopped emitting CO2 today, warming
  would continue for 30 years
• However it is not too late avoid dangerous,
  irreversible climate change

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Dangerous Tipping PointsMelting of the
Greenland Ice Sheet
This would commit the world to a 20 foot increase
in sea level.
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Dangerous Tipping PointsMelting of the
Permafrost
Zimov et al. 2006
This could lead to an increase in atmospheric
burden of global warming pollutants 10 times
present amount.
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The Policy Imperative

• Avoid dangerous climate change
• Prevent climate system from passing a tipping
  point that leads to irreversible climate change

??Permafrost??
Regional Impacts (esp.alpine ecosystems) Coral
Reefs High-altitude Glaciers
Antarctic ice Amazon Rainforest THC
Arctic sea ice
Greenland ice
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4
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Current warming
Warming in pipeline
(F)
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IPCC. 2007
50 of avoiding more than 4 F temperature
increase
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What will it take to avoid passing the ice sheet
tipping point?
GLOBAL ANNUAL CO2 EMISSIONS FROM FOSSIL FUELS
50 chance of not passing 4 oF threshold
GIG ATONSCAR BON
GIGATONS
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U.S. is a major player
2005 ANNUAL EMISSIONS
1750-2005 ACCUMULATED EMISSIONS
Fossil fuel emissions only
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Illustrative example of U.S. cap 15 reduction by
2020, 80 reduction by 2050 (both relative to
2007)
Can we do this?
12 8 4 0
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The Technological Wedges Socolow
Pacala, 2006
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Illustrative example of U.S. cap 15 reduction by
2020, 70 reduction by 2050 (both relative to
2007)
Business as usual
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• How best to get technologies deployed?
• Manhattan-like Project
• Taxes provides economic certainty, but not
  environmental certainty
• Cap-and-trade provides environmental certainty,
  but no cap on costs

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• Lieberman-Warner Critical Issues
• Cost containment
• Safety valve ? C Market Fed
• Distribution of Allowances
• Allocation vs. Auction

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Give-aways to fossil-fuel sector
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• Lieberman-Warner Critical Issues
• Cost containment
• Safety valve ? C Market Fed
• Distribution of Allowances
• Allocation vs. Auction
• Offsets
• How much how to assure they are real

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Land-management offsets Examples

• Capture methane emissions from manure, land
  fills, etc

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Land-management offsets Examples
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Compensated Reductions (REDD)
Reimbursing tropical rainforest nations for
slowing the rate of deforestation
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Cut 2025 emissions to 90 of present
Can offsets play a significant role?
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• Lieberman-Warner Critical Issues
• Cost containment
• Safety valve ? C Market Fed
• Distribution of Allowances
• Allocation vs. Auction
• Offsets
• How much how to assure they are real
• Nuclear Power
• Foreign Trade
• How to protect high C imports within WTO

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The time window is narrowingon greenhouse gas
stabilization pathways
Emission Pathways to Meet Stabilization Target
450 ppm by 2100
B and C 2020 emissions peak 2050 emissions
down by 60 2100 emissions down by 80
E
D
C
B
A
Global CO2 emissions (billion tons of carbon)
A
Too late for A Current proposals fall near B and C
In another 10 years it will be too late for B and
C
2000
2020
2040
2080
2060
2100
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WHAT WOULD IT COST?
Source McKinsey Co.
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