Nitrate Discussion WRAP Meeting

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Nitrate DiscussionWRAP Meeting Tucson,
AZJanuary 10/11, 2006

• Joe Adlhoch - Air Resource Specialists, Inc.

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Overview

• How much of baseline regional haze in WRAP states
  is due to nitrate?
• What are the historical trends in nitrate
  concentrations?
• What are the contributions of natural and manmade
  emissions to nitrate?
• How are emissions expected to change by 2018?
• How is visibility expected to change?
• How does this compare with the glidepath?
• Selected case studies

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IMPROVE Monitoring Locations
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Baseline Extinction 20 Worst Days
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Baseline Extinction 20 Best Days
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Baseline Nitrate 20 Worst Days
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Historical Trends in 20 Worst Days Total and
Nitrate Extinction

• 16 year trends (1989 2004) required 12 complete
  years of data
• 8 year trends (1997 2004) required 6 complete
  years of data
• Theil slopes (Mm-1/yr) calculated for all sites
  with sufficient data
• P-values of 0.2 required to identify trend as
  significant
• Changes in monitoring or analytical protocol over
  the years may affect trends

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16-yr Trends
8-yr Trends
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Historical Trends, 20 Worst Days Mount Rainier
NP
16-yr decrease in Bext
16-yr decrease in NO3
8-yr increase in NO3
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Historical Trends, 20 Worst Days Chiricahua NM
8-yr increase in Bext
16-yr increase in NO3
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Historical Trends, 20 Worst Days Redwood NP
16-yr decrease in Bext
16-yr decrease in NO3
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Historical Trends, 20 Worst Days Rocky Mountain
NP
8-yr increase in Bext
8-yr increase in NO3
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Anthropogenic and Natural NOx Emissions by State
(Plan02)
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Total WRAP Region SO2 and NOx Emissions (2002,
2018, and difference)
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All NOx Emissions
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Gridded Model Results for Annual Average Nitrate
Mass

• Annual average modeled mass (not 20 worst days)
• 2002 and 2018
• Difference (2018 2002)
• Ratio (2018/2002)

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Modeled 2002 NO3
Modeled 2018 NO3
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Baseline and Projected 2018 Extinction 20
Worst Days
2000 2004 Baseline Extinction
Projected 2018 Extinction
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Baseline and Projected 2018 Nitrate Extinction
20 Worst Days
2000 2004 Baseline Nitrate Extinction
Projected 2018 Nitrate Extinction
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Baseline dv and Projected 2018 dv Reduction 20
Worst Days
2000 2004 Baseline Deciviews
Projected 2018 Deciview Reduction
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Variation in Baseline Deciview Values
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Percent of 2018 Target Reduction Achieved
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Hells Canyon, OR/ID
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2002 NOx Emissions Hells Canyon
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2018 NOx Reductions Hells Canyon
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Model Comparison Hells Canyon, OR
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Hells Canyon, OR/ID
2002 IMPROVE Data
2002 Model Results
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2018 Model Changes Hells Canyon, OR
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Glide Path Hells Canyon, OR/ID
Baseline Variability (dv)
Baseline Variability by Species
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Medicine Lakes, MT
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2002 NOx Emissions Medicine Lakes
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2018 NOx Reductions Medicine Lakes
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Model Comparison Medicine Lakes, MT
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Medicine Lakes, MT
2002 IMPROVE Data
2002 Model Results
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2018 Model Changes Medicine Lakes
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Glide Path Medicine Lakes, MT
Baseline Variability (dv)
Baseline Variability by Species
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Agua Tibia, CA
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2002 NOx Emissions Agua Tibia
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2018 NOx Reductions Agua Tibia
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Model Comparison Agua Tibia, CA
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Agua Tibia, CA
2002 IMPROVE Data
2002 Model Results
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2018 Model Changes Agua Tibia, CA
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Glide Path Agua Tibia, CA
Baseline Variability (dv)
Baseline Variability by Species