San Francisco Planning Department Census Data Analysis

1
San Francisco Planning Department Census Data
Analysis

• Researchers
• James Willis, Jerry Habib, and Jeremy Brittan
• Client
• San Francisco Planning Department

2
Outline

• Background
• Task Defined
• Research Methods
• Findings
• Conclusions
• Recommendations

3
Background

• The San Francisco Planning Department is tasked
  with developing planning policy, informing
  community planning efforts, and developing
  land-use controls.
• The planning department requires demographic
  information from the Census in order to perform
  these tasks. Previously, the San Francisco
  Planning Department has analyzed and prepared
  Census data to provide information about the city
  for use by the public. For example, the planning
  department produced two summaries of demographic
  data for the 1990 Census, San Francisco Atlas and
  San Francisco at a Glance.

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Background

• The department has not yet produced similar
  summaries for the 2000 Census which has made
  providing data to the public very difficult and
  time consuming.
• Demographic information is extremely important to
  successful city planning, you cannot plan
  effectively without knowing about the people who
  live in the city. Demographic information is
  essential in determining the needs of the
  population and deciding who might be affected by
  development decisions.

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Task Defined

• Create a model for analyzing census data using
  tables, thematic maps, and written analysis
• Analyze census data at different geographic
  scales (block group, tract, county)
• Analyze selected variables at the county level
  between 1970 and 2000
• Provide a detailed look at San Francisco
  demographics and housing conditions between 1990
  and 2000.

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Research Methods

• Census data retrieval using American FactFinder
  (www.census.gov) for 1990 and 2000
• Historical data gathering for 1970 and 1980
  census data from library research
• Analysis of data sets and GIS shape files on BSS
  College data server
• Creation of spreadsheets for analysis
• Thematic mapping using ArcGIS 8.3.

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Findings

• Countywide Data
• 1990-2000 Population Change
• Asian Population
• Hispanic Population
• Age
• Household Size
• Housing

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Countywide Data
San Francisco experienced the least growth
consistently each decade. It was the only
county which reported an actual loss of
population (1980). San Francisco experienced
the greatest population increase since the 1940s
between 1990 and 2000.1 Solano and Sonoma
Counties experienced the most growth in terms of
percentage. Santa Clara County had the most
growth in terms of number of people.
1 San Francisco Planning and Urban Research
Association Report 397
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Countywide Data
Santa Clara County experienced consistently high
black population growth from 1970 until 1990 and
then showed a decrease between 1990 and 2000. San
Francisco lost black population each decade with
the greatest loss happening between 1990 and
2000. Alameda County has the highest total black
population and Napa County has the lowest but
Napas black population has been growing each
decade since 1970.
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Countywide Data
San Francisco Countys white population declined
each decade but not as much as its black
population. The biggest loss was between 1970
and 1980 at -22.7. Sonoma County was the only
county whose white population grew each decade
since 1970. Santa Clara County had the highest
white population between 1970 and 1990 with
increases of 1.4 each decade. Santa Clara had
the largest drop in white population between 1990
and 2000 losing 12.3.
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Countywide Data
Population of minors dropped in most counties
until 2000. Marin, San Francisco and San Mateo
have less people under the age of 18 then they
did in 1970. Only Solano and Sonoma Counties
reported consistent growth since 1970. Solano
is the youngest county with 28.3 of the total
population under age 18. San Francisco only
14.5 of the total population is under age 18.
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Countywide Data
The largest increase in senior population in the
Bay Area took place between 1970 and 1980 with an
average rate of 42.8 The average increase to
the total population was only 16.1. The
largest proportion of the total population over
age 65 is in Napa County (15.4) San Francisco
second at 13.7. The smallest is Santa Clara
and Solano Counties each with 9.5 of the total
population over age 65.
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Countywide Data
During the 1970s every county experienced a
decrease in median household income due to a
recession. San Francisco experienced the most
drastic changes in median income each decade.
Although it was by no means the county with the
highest income it experienced the largest percent
increase in the 1990s. Santa Clara County boasted
the highest median income in 2000 Solano and
Sonoma consistently had the lowest median income
and experienced lower then average increases
since 1990.
Note income adjusted to 2000 dollars by CPI
index.
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1990-2000 Population Change
Presidio
Treasure Island
The largest increase in population in San
Francisco between 1990 and 2000 took place in the
SOMA/South Beach neighborhoods and the Bayview
area and Excelsior/Crocker neighborhoods. The
Bayview doubled its population in a decade. The
closure of the Treasure Island Naval Station in
1997 and the Presidios closing in 1994 accounted
for their significant loss in population.
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1990-2000 Population Change
The most significant loss of Black population
occurred in Oceanview/Merced/Ingleside
neighborhoods where African Americans were almost
half the population in 1990 and now are less than
25 and have largely been replaced by Asian
residents. The largest increases in Black
population were in the SOMA and Bayview/Hunters
Point neighborhoods. The citys Black population
has declined drastically in the past decade, with
little new affordable housing being built and
most of the new units being fairly expensive.
Oceanview/Merced/Ingleside
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1990-2000 Population Change

• The heaviest loss of White population took
  place in the Sunset and Excelsior districts,
  where they were replaced to a large extent by
  Asians and Hispanics.
• The White population grew in the South Beach and
  SOMA districts, where they have taken a
  disproportionate amount of the new housing being
  built.

Excelsior District
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Asian Population

• The Asian population remains highest in
  Chinatown, where one Census Tract (114) reported
  a 95 ratio.
• Asians also make up more than half the
  population in the Inner Sunset, a traditional
  stronghold in San Francisco.
• A recent development has been an increase in the
  Asian population in Census Tract 233, part of the
  Bayview district. More than 85 of the new
  residents at the Portola Place development are
  Asian (predominantly Chinese).

Chinatown
Inner Sunset
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Hispanic Population

• Hispanic concentrations remain heavy along the
  Mission corridor, despite some gentrification
  during the 1990s. Inner Mission has the highest
  population, but there are considerable numbers in
  the Outer Mission/Excelsior district.
• Hispanic population remains low in places like
  the Sunset, the Haight, and SOMA/South Beach.

Haight
Mission
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Age

• The Bayview/Hunters Point neighborhoods have
  the lowest median age of any large area of the
  city with most people under age 33.
• The area with the highest median age is the
  Diamond Heights, Noe Valley and St. Francis Wood
  neighborhoods including Laguna Honda.
• There is a concentration of older residents in
  the North Beach and Chinatown neighborhoods.

Diamond Heights, Noe Valley and St. Francis Wood
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Age

• There is a high concentration of children
  under age 18 in the Bayview area. The central
  neighborhoods of San Francisco and the SOMA have
  the lowest number of children under age 18.
• The most concentrations of children under
  18 are found in the southern neighborhoods of the
  city.
• The Sunset District has moderate population
  of minors under 18 as does Richmond district.

SOMA
Sunset District
Bayview/Hunters Point
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Household Size

• Most of the households with three or more
  people are found in the Southern areas of the
  city including Bayview/Hunters Point, Crocker
  Amazon, Ingleside, Visitacion Valley and the
  Excelsior neighborhoods.
• One block group in the South of Market
  neighborhood has much higher average household
  size than the surrounding block groups.
• The South Beach, Mission Bay and Yerba
  Buena areas average around one person per
  household as does the Marina and North Beach
  neighborhoods.

Mission Bay, Yerba Buena
Crocker Amazon, Ingleside, Visitacion Valley and
Excelsior
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Housing

• Most of the new housing was added in the
  SOMA neighborhoods and North Beach/Telegraph Hill
  area. Another large increase came in the Sunset
  around the UCSF campus.
• Two census tracts lost housing units in Twin
  Peaks and Visitacion Valley.
• The rest of the city remained virtually
  unchanged in terms of number of housing units
  between 1990 and 2000.

North Beach/Telegraph Hill
Twin Peaks
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Housing

• Large concentrations of renters are found
  in the south west corner of the city including
  Park Merced, SFSU, Balboa Terrace and Lake Shore
  neighborhoods.
• Another high concentration of renters is
  found in the area including SOMA, Civic Center,
  Western Addition and Castro neighborhoods.
• The Bayview also has a high concentration of
  renters.
• The lowest concentration of renters is in
  the St. Francis Wood, Diamond Heights and Glen
  Park neighborhoods.

Civic Center/Western Addition
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Housing

• The highest concentration of homeowners can
  be found in the St. Francis Wood, Diamond Heights
  and Glen Park neighborhoods.
• Visitacion, Excelsior and Sunset
  neighborhoods also have high concentrations of
  homeowners.
• Downtown has the lowest concentration of
  homeowners in the city.

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Housing

• The largest drop in renter occupied units
  occurred in two of the citys military bases.
• Castro/Twin Peaks and Visitacion Valley
  also had a significant drop in renter occupied
  units.
• The largest increases of renter occupied
  units between 1990 and 2000 were in the SOMA and
  Civic Center neighborhoods.
• The Marina District had some increase in
  renter occupied units between 1990 and 2000.
• The rest of the city remained relatively
  stable.

Marina District
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Conclusions

• On average the greatest total population growth
  in the Bay Area occurred between 1980 and 1990.
• San Francisco has experienced a declining trend
  in total population between 1970 and 2000.
• While Blacks and Whites have left the city an
  influx of Asian and Hispanic populations are
  reshaping San Franciscos demographics between
  1970 and 2000.

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Conclusions

• San Francisco has a high percent of the total
  population over age 65 compared to the rest of
  the nine county Bay Area (13.7 in 2000).
• San Francisco has the lowest percent of the total
  population under age 18 compared to the rest of
  the Bay Area (14.5).
• San Francisco is an average county in terms of
  median household income compared to the rest of
  the Bay Area.

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Conclusions

• South of Market Area and the Excelsior
  neighborhoods experienced the highest population
  growth in the city between 1990 and 2000.
• The block groups with the most homeowners are in
  the southern parts of the city while the block
  groups with the most renters are in the northern
  parts of the city.
• The areas that have the most people under age 18
  tend to be in the southeast corner of the city.

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Recommendations

• Building on our prototype, add new census
  variables and make all maps available on the
  Planning Department web site.
• Develop an interactive computer system to respond
  to citizen inquiries about San Franciscos
  population trends and housing conditions.
• Upgrade GIS software to ArcGIS 8.3 to make our
  maps available for further in-house analysis.

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Thank You