Terrorism: A Threat Assessment

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Terrorism A Threat Assessment

• John Parachini
• June 26, 2003

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Three Enduring Aspects of Combating Terrorism

• Terrorism is a perennial, ceaseless struggle
• Enmity towards the U.S. is unlikely to diminish
• U.S. will remain vulnerable

It is important to prioritize protection
activities according to both threat and
vulnerabilities.
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New Trends
Inexorable Diffusion of Technology
Religiously Motivated Violence
Mass Casualty Terrorism
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Anti-US Mass Casualty Incidents
Source Report of the Accountability Review
Boards, Bombings of the U.S. Embassies in
Nairobi, Kenya, and Dar es Salaam, Tanzania,
August 7, 1998
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Inexorable Spread of Technology
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Tactically, Terrorists Mostly Use Explosives to
Conduct Their Attacks
Weapons used in Terrorist Attacks 1 April 2001
1 April 2002
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Analysis of Terrorism Threat

• Capabilities
• Motivations
• Vulnerabilities
• Context

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Two Factors Affect Terrorists Choice of Targets

• Accessibility
• Seizing opportunities to attack
• Exploiting vulnerabilities for desired ends
• Shock-value
• Destruction of symbolic buildings, institutions,
  or sites
• Attacks that cause large amounts of casualties

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Terrorist System
State Enablers
Family Members

• State Sponsors

Financiers
Possible to Influence

• Weapons Smugglers

• Talent Spotters

• Leaders

• Foot Soldiers

Importance to the Terrorist Enterprise
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Key Types of State Support
AActive PPassive Sanctuary Political Support Train. Finance Arms Intel Logistics Joint Ops.
State/Insurgency Group A A A A A A A A
State/Terrorist Cut-out A A A A A A A
State/Terrorist Political Goals P A A A P A P A A P
Weak State/Strong Terrorist Group A P P P A P A P
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Examples of State Support for Terrorism
A Active P Passive Designated State
Sponsor
Pakistan (prior to 911)
Afghanistan (Taliban)
North Korea
Saudi Arabia
Venezuela
Syria
Iran
Sudan
Greece
Libya
Cuba
Iraq
Sanctuary A A P A A A A A P A A A
Political Support A A P A A A P A P A A P
Training P A A ? A ? A
Financing P A P A A A ? A P P A P
Documentation ? ? ? ? A ? ? ? A
Weapons A P A A ? P A ? A P
Intelligence ? A ? ? A ?
Logistics P ? A ? A ? A A P
Joint Operations ? A A A
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Middle East States Seeking WMD and the Terrorist
Groups They Support
Al Qaeda
ALF
al-Gamaa al Islamiyya
Hamas
Al Aqsa Martyr Brigade
PFLP
Islamic Jihad
PKK
MEK
ANO
Hezbollah
PIJ
PFLP-GC
PLF
Iraq
Libya
Iran
Syria
Sudan
Nuclear Biological Chemical
Chemical Biological
Chemical
Nuclear Biological Chemical
Chemical Biological
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17 Groups That Target Within Their Area of
Operations Are Also Anti-U.S.
Focus on U.S.
Al-Qaeda
DHKP/C
IG
FARC
N17RO
LeT
PIJ
ELN
GSPC
Hizballah
Anti-US Sentiment
HAMAS
SL
ASG
IMU
GIA
Maoists
MILF
AUC
RIRA
ETA
Kach
LTTE
Anti-U.S. Rhetoric
Strike guarded target
Coordinate multiple attacks
Attack unguarded foreign nationals
Conduct an Attack
Kill 150
Kill 50 People
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Terrorist Groups and Unconventional Weapons
CR
CRB
C
CRBN
High
Al Qaeda
LTTE
Danger
AUM
Hizbollah
FARC (?) HAMAS (?) DHKP/C (?) PKK (?) BKI
RIRA ETA MILF AUC IMU N17RO SL ASG Kach
Chechen Rebels
PIJ
GSPC
GIA
Low
Sophistication of Unconventional Weapons
High
Low
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Al-Qaeda Motivations

• Launch an Islamic revolution
• Perception that U.S.props up corrupt Arab regimes
  that oppress Muslims peoples
• Attack U.S. to avenge sense of religious,
  economic, and political grievance
• Inflicting large number of U.S. casualties will
  cause it to leave the Middle East and lessen
  support for Israel
• Struggle against the U.S., Israel, and the West
  affirms personal identity of al-Qaeda terrorists

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Al-Qaeda CBRN Threat

• We have the weapons nuclear and chemical as
  deterrent.

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Documents from Al-Qaeda Sites in Afghanistan

• Reveal extensive interest in WMD
• Basic information from open sources
• Little evidence of progress towards significant
  acquisition or weaponization

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Ahmed Ressam and the CNN Tapes

• Describes training on how to release cyanide gas
  into buildings

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Planting Dangerous Ideas

• . . . we only became aware of them biological
  weapons when the enemy drew our attention to
  them by repeatedly expressing concern that they
  can be produced simply.
• Memo on computer disk allegedly written by Al
  Zawari April 1999.

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Image Found in Al Qaeda Safe House

• Al-Qaeda took note of U.S. official fears
• Tension between prudent preparedness and
  communicating our vulnerabilities

Source ABCnews.com
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Another View of New Trends
Tactical Fanatic Violence
Mass Casualty Violence
CBRN Weapons Capabilities
Interest in CBRN
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Dangers in the Future

• Al Qaeda sleeper cells?
• New grouping of terrorists trained in Al Qaeda
  camps?
• Others struggling against modernity?
• Strong terrorists operating in weak and beholden
  states?