Risk Assessment Process

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Risk Assessment Process
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• How Does
• Threat
• Fit into the Homeland Security Strategic Planning
  Process?

Threat Assessment
3
State Administrative Agency
Risk Assessment
Needs Assessment
Threat Assessment
Desired Capabilities
Current Capabilities
Vulnerability Assessment
Threat Assessment
Shortfalls or Gaps
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R E F E R E N C E Jurisdiction Handbook page 11

• PTE Defined
• Groups or individuals indicating the unlawful use
  of force or violence
• Specifically the utilization of a WMD
• To intimidate or coerce
• Government or civilian population
• Political or social purposes

Threat Assessment
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• Weapons of Mass Destruction (18 USC 2332a)
• Defines a weapon of mass destruction as (1) any
  destructive device as defined in section 921 of
  this title, which reads any explosive,
  incendiary, or poison gas, bomb, grenade, rocket
  having a propellant charge of more than four
  ounces, missile having an explosive or incendiary
  charge of more than one-quarter ounce, mine or
  device similar to the above (2) poison gas (3)
  any weapon involving a disease organism or (4)
  any weapon that is designed to release radiation
  or radioactivity at a level dangerous to human
  life.

Threat Assessment
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• Threat Working Group
• Law enforcement personnel/intelligence components
• Consider all appropriate personnel/agencies
• Additional participants should be limited to
  subject matter experts who advise on terrorism
  related issues
• FBI WMD Coordinator
• FBI Joint Terrorism Task Force
• Provide information on motives and capabilities
  of PTE

Threat Assessment
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• Joint Terrorism Task Force
• Combines federal, state and local law enforcement
• Develop cohesive strategy for identifying,
  investigating and prosecuting terrorists
• Intelligence collection and analysis to prevent
  terrorist acts
• 66 JTTFs nationwide

Threat Assessment
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• FBI WMD Coordinator
• Located within FBI field offices
• Assist state and local jurisdictions with
  identifying WMD threat elements
• Assist state and local jurisdictions in their
  establishment of policies and procedures
  established for responding to WMD terrorist
  attacks
• Liaison to the Joint Terrorism Task Force

Threat Assessment
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• Law Enforcement On-line (LEO)

Threat Assessment
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• Safeguards
• Information sharing limited to working group
• No recording or forwarding of sensitive
  information
• Alternatives recognized but require submission
  using existing format

Threat Assessment
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• Cautions
• Snapshot of current operational activity within
  jurisdiction
• Assessment does not warrant opening an
  investigation
• Lone offenders and splinter groups should be
  considered
• Different interpretations of threat factors
• Tendency to inflate results

Threat Assessment
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R E F E R E N C E Jurisdiction Handbook page 12

• Threat Assessment Process
• Assessment completion off-line
• Organize threat working group
• PTE existence
• Past violent history
• Evidence of intentions
• Evidence of capability
• Evidence of targeting
• Jurisdiction threat rating (highest threat)
• On-line entry of threat rating

Threat Assessment
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R E F E R E N C E Jurisdiction Handbook page 14

• Document Threat Working Group
• Jurisdiction population and coordinating agency
• POC for Threat Working Group
• Working group agencies
• FBI/Joint Terrorism Task Force participation

Threat Assessment
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• Threat Assessment Factors
• Existence
• The presence of a group or individual, operating
  within the jurisdiction

Threat Assessment
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• History
• Demonstrated past terrorist activity over time or
  a recorded, violent criminal history

Threat Assessment
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• Intentions
• Credible advocacy/threats of force or violence,
  acts, preparations to act evidencing intent to
  create a WMD, carry out a plan to release a WMD,
  or to participate in a WMD incident

Threat Assessment
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• Capability
• Credible information that a specific PTE
  possesses the requisite training, skills,
  finances, and access to resources needed to
  develop, produce, or acquire a particular type of
  WMD in a quantity and/or potency sufficient to
  produce mass casualties, combined with
  information substantiating the PTEs ability to
  safely store, test, and deliver the same

Threat Assessment
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• Targeting
• Credible information indicative of preparations
  for specific terrorist operations against
  identifiable targets located within the specified
  jurisdiction

Threat Assessment
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R E F E R E N C E Jurisdiction Handbook page 16

• Threat Factor Values

Threat Assessment


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• Assess PTE Motivations
• Political
• Religious
• Racial
• Environmental
• Special Interest

Threat Assessment
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• Identify WMD Capabilities of PTE
• Chemical
• Biological
• Radiological
• Nuclear
• Explosive

CBRNE
Threat Assessment
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Jurisdiction Threat Worksheet Jurisdiction Threat Worksheet Jurisdiction Threat Worksheet Jurisdiction Threat Worksheet Jurisdiction Threat Worksheet Jurisdiction Threat Worksheet Jurisdiction Threat Worksheet Jurisdiction Threat Worksheet Jurisdiction Threat Worksheet
Threat Factors Threat Factors Threat Factors Threat Factors Threat Factors Threat Factors Threat Level (1-10) Motivation PPolitical RReligious EEnvironmental RaRacial SSpecial Interest Choose one or more WMD Categories CChemical BBiological RRadiological NNuclear EExplosive Choose one or more
PTE Existence (1) Violent History (1) Intentions (2) WMD Capability (2) Targeting (4) Threat Level (1-10) Motivation PPolitical RReligious EEnvironmental RaRacial SSpecial Interest Choose one or more WMD Categories CChemical BBiological RRadiological NNuclear EExplosive Choose one or more
PTE 1 1 1 2 Ra E
PTE 2
PTE 3
Threat Assessment
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R E F E R E N C E Jurisdiction Handbook page 18

• Jurisdiction Threat Profile process
• Number of PTE
• Existing PTE capabilities
• WMD Threat History
• Jurisdiction Threat Rating

Threat Assessment
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• Step 1 - Number of PTE
• PTE assessed in your jurisdiction
• If no known PTE - a rating of zero is recorded
  here

Threat Assessment
Total Number of PTE
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• Step 2 - Existing PTE capabilities
• Document PTE capabilities
• CBRNE

Threat Assessment
Chemical Nuclear
Biological Explosive
Radiological None
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• Step 3 - WMD Threat History
• Document threat history
• January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2002

Threatened WMD Hazard Total Number of Responses to Suspected WMD Threats and/or Incidents Number of WMD Threats and/or Incidents Determined to be Criminal
Chemical
Biological
Radiological
Nuclear
Explosive
Threat Assessment
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• Step 4 - Threat Rating
• Jurisdiction threat rating
• Highest threat level

Threat Assessment
Jurisdiction Threat Rating
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• DISCUSSION

Threat Assessment
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• How Does
• Vulnerability
• Fit Into the Homeland Security Strategic Planning
  Process?

Basic Vulnerability Assessment
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State Administrative Agency
Risk Assessment
Needs Assessment
Basic Vulnerability Assessment
Desired Capabilities
Current Capabilities
Threat Assessment
Vulnerability Assessment
Shortfalls or Gaps
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• Vulnerability Defined
• The process of identifying any weaknesses that
  can be exploited by an adversary to gain access
  or information
• Vulnerabilities can result from, but are not
  limited to
• Building characteristics
• Equipment properties
• Personal behavior
• Operational practices

Basic Vulnerability Assessment
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R E F E R E N C E Reference Handbook page B-10

• Potential Targets
• Facilities
• Sites
• Systems
• Special events

Basic Vulnerability Assessment
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• Vulnerability Working Group
• Multi-discipline members
• Include personnel who can provide specific
  information unique to potential target

Basic Vulnerability Assessment
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R E F E R E N C E Jurisdiction Handbook page 20
4 Step Process
Determine Jurisdictional Vulnerability

• Highest Worksheet Rating
• Jurisdiction Vulnerability
• Rating

Conduct Individual Target Vulnerability Assessment
s

• Vulnerability Assessment
• Worksheets
• 7 Assessment Factors

Basic Vulnerability Assessment
Identify Potential Targets

• Critical Assets List
• Top 10 (10 or less all targets)

Organize the Assessment Team

• Multidiscipline members
• Working knowledge of facilities, sites,
• systems, or special events

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• Seven Factors Used to Assess Vulnerability
• Level of visibility
• Criticality of target site to jurisdiction
• Impact outside of the jurisdiction
• PTE access to potential target
• Potential target threat of hazard
• Potential target site population capacity
• Potential for collateral mass casualties

Basic Vulnerability Assessment
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• Step 1 - Assess the awareness of the existence
  and visibility of the target to the general
  public

Basic Vulnerability Assessment
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• Step 2 - Assess usefulness of assets to local
  population, economy, government, etc. Potential
  targets deemed essential to the continuity of the
  jurisdiction

Basic Vulnerability Assessment
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• Step 3 - Assess the effect loss will have outside
  of the jurisdiction

Basic Vulnerability Assessment
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• Step 4 - Assess the availability of the target
  for ingress and egress by a PTE

Basic Vulnerability Assessment
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• Step 5 - Assess the presence of legal WMD
  material (CBRNE) in quantities that could be the
  target of a terrorist attack or would complicate
  the response to an incident at that facility

Basic Vulnerability Assessment
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• Step 6 - Assess the maximum number of individuals
  at a site at any given time

Basic Vulnerability Assessment
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• Step 7 - Assess potential collateral mass
  casualties within a one-mile radius of the target
  site

Basic Vulnerability Assessment
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• Summary score
• Rating key
• Enter target rating
• Document rating for each target

Summary Score _____Visibility _____Criticality _____Impact Outside Jurisdiction _____PTE Access to Target _____Potential Target Threat _____Potential Site Population _____Potential for Collateral Mass Casualties ____ TOTAL Basic Target Vulnerability Assessment Rating Key 0 - 2 pts. 1 18 - 20 pts. 7 3 - 5 pts. 2 21 - 23 pts. 8 6 - 8 pts. 3 24 - 26 pts. 9 9 - 11 pts. 4 27 - 29 pts. 10 12 - 14 pts. 5 30 - 32 pts. 11 15 - 17 pts. 6 33 - 35 pts. 12
Basic Vulnerability Assessment
Target Name or Number Rating
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R E F E R E N C E Jurisdiction Handbook page 25

• Final vulnerability rating
• Highest vulnerability rating of all site/targets
• Include raw score

Basic Vulnerability Assessment
Jurisdiction Vulnerability Rating Jurisdiction Vulnerability Rating
Basic Vulnerability Summary Raw Score (Highest Target Score)
Basic Vulnerability Rating
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• Legal Hazards
• Adhere to CBRNE definitions

CBRNE Material Number of sites located in jurisdiction
Chemical (Tier II)
Biological (Infectious Only)
Radiological
Nuclear
Explosive
Basic Vulnerability Assessment
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• Critical Infrastructure Assessment
• IAIP in conjunction with the TSA desire to
  collect Vulnerability Worksheets
• Need to compile a national list of valuable
  assets
• USSS Key Asset Program contact
• FOIA considerations

Basic Vulnerability Assessment
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R E F E R E N C E Jurisdiction Handbook page 27

• Site-Specific Vulnerability Assessment
• Survey for ODP
• Specialized assessment to harden target
• Estimates future assessments required
• By jurisdiction

Basic Vulnerability Assessment
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• DISCUSSION

Basic Vulnerability Assessment