National Survey Presentation

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National Survey Presentation September 23-25,
2001
Bill McInturff Partner, Public Opinion Strategies
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Methodology
- Public Opinion Strategies is pleased to
present the results of a national survey
conducted September 23-25, 2001 among 800
registered voters. The margin-of-error for a
sample this size is 3.5.
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There IS historic precedent for the surge in
President Bushs job approval. IF there is no
other attack in this country or dramatic change
in Americas efforts to combat terrorists abroad,
then we might anticipate the following

• President Bushs job approval rating could drift
  back down to the mid-50s by roughly June of
  2002.
• A shift in the political issue agenda as more
  attention focuses on the strength of the economy
  and jobs.
• But the reality will remain in the survey
  language tested combating terrorism at home in
  the United States and overseas will continue to
  be front and center of American political life
  for at least the next one or two years.

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(No Transcript)
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Approval ratings are extraordinarily high in
terms of the Presidents response and the
response of corporate America.
And do you approve or disapprove of the way MAJOR
CORPORATIONS headquartered in New York City are
dealing with terrorist attacks on the World Trade
Center in New York City?
And do you approve or disapprove of the way the
PRESIDENT is dealing with terrorist attacks on
the World Trade Center in New York City?
Total Approve 96 Total Disapprove 4
Total Approve 86 Total Disapprove 14
Total Disapprove
Total Disapprove
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There is dramatic evidence of increasing concern
about the issue of the economy and jobs.
And, in addition to the obvious concern about
terrorism and national security, which one of the
following issues do you believe should be the
next highest priority for Congress and the
President?
(Top two mentions)
Economy and Jobs
49
37
24
July 9-11, 2001
August 22-26 2001
September 23-25, 2001
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There is dramatic evidence of increasing concern
about the issue of the economy and jobs.
And, how likely do you believe it is that your
STATEs economy will go into a recession in the
next six months?
Very Likely
72
53
50
45
45
27
25
15
11
February 2001
July 2001
September 2001
February 2001
July 2001
September 2001
Total Likely
Total Not Likely
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There is dramatic evidence of increasing concern
about the issue of the economy and jobs.

• Already almost three out of ten Americans say
  either they have been laid off or lost their job
  (5), or know someone who has lost their job,
  just since the terrorist attack on September
  11th (25).
• A majority (51) of Americans say they have
  heard their friends or neighbors talk about the
  chance they could lose their job . . . up
  sharply from 35 in February of 2001

9
Profiling financial elites continues to suggest
troubled economic times ahead and a lack of
confidence in the status of the economy.

• Financial elites are the 19 of the country
  who can correctly identify the Dow Jones
  Industrial Average within 500 points. These
  respondents are affluent, well educated, and
  closely follow economic news.
• This data is a final coda that strongly suggests
  a bleak outlook as regards consumer confidence
  and any hope for a market recovery this year.

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Profiling financial elites continues to suggest
troubled economic times ahead and a lack of
confidence in the status of the economy.
State economy very likely in a recession
Economy and Jobs a top problem
Those who believe their states economy will
very likely be in a recession within the next
six months to a year.
Those selecting the economy and jobs as one of
the top two problems facing the country
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We see a shift in concern from privacy and
healthcare related issues to safety and security
between May and September of 2001.
I would like you to consider the importance of
some current issues. Using a ten point scale,
with ten being very important and one being not
important at all, please tell me how important
the issues discussed in the following statements
are to you personally . . .
( 10)
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We see a shift in concern from privacy and
healthcare related issues to safety and security
between May and September of 2001.
I would like you to consider the importance of
some current issues. Using a ten point scale,
with ten being very important and one being not
important at all, please tell me how important
the issues discussed in the following statements
are to you personally . . .
( 10)
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When asked to rate how important each of 15
different issues was to them personally, the
following issues have significantly DECLINED in
importance since first asked in May of 2001. (
Total)
14
But it is important to note which issues did NOT
drop in importance beyond the margin-of-error. (
Total)
15
But it is important to note the one issue that
increased in importance beyond the
margin-of-error. ( Total)
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Turning to look at how closely people are
following the story of the attack and its
aftermath . . .
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America continues to be transfixed by the
terrorist attack and its aftermath with more than
a third of Americans saying they spend more than
two hours a day focusing on this event.
If you had to estimate, how much time, if any,
would you say you spent today following the news
on TV, the radio, or in newspapers or magazines
or talking to someone about the terrorist attacks
of September 11th, 2001 and their aftermath,
including the United States led military action
in Afghanistan?
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Residents in the Mid-Atlantic regionincluding
New York, New Jersey, Virginia and Marylandare
not surprisingly especially focused on this story.
If you had to estimate, how much time, if any,
would you say you spent today following the news
on TV, the radio, or in newspapers or magazines
or talking to someone about the terrorist attacks
of September 11th, 2001 and their aftermath?
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This is a story that has deeply touched all of
America . . . and one in which they feel a deep,
personal attachment.

• Six percent of Americans say they know someone
  who is missing or was hurt or killed in the
  attacks . . . that is 12.5 million people.
• Another 24 of Americans say they have a friend
  or relative that lost someone in the attack.

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We gave respondents a list of 18 different
emotions in order to better understand how people
feel about the events of September 11th, and its
aftermath.
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Negative Emotions Rank Ordered
There has been a great deal of talk about the
different range of feelings that people have had
about the events of September 11th. I am going
to read you a list of some different words and
emotions that could describe how you feel about
these events. For each word or emotion, please
tell me yes or no if this would describe you or
not . . .
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Positive Emotions Rank Ordered
There has been a great deal of talk about the
different range of feelings that people have had
about the events of September 11th. I am going
to read you a list of some different words and
emotions that could describe how you feel about
these events. For each word or emotion, please
tell me yes or no if this would describe you or
not . . .
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Men and women both feel. . .
There has been a great deal of talk about the
different range of feelings that people have had
about the events of September 11th. I am going
to read you a list of some different words and
emotions that could describe how you feel about
these events. For each word or emotion, please
tell me yes or no if this would describe you or
not . . .
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But, men and women differ on which emotions they
use to describe their feelings about the events
of September 11th
Men are more likely to say they feel
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But, men and women differ on which emotions they
use to describe their feelings about the events
of September 11th
Women are more likely to say they feel

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Creating Emotional Typologies

• Respondents were read 18 specific emotions and
  asked to tell us if each one described their
  personal feelings about the September 11th
  incident.
• We then used a statistical analysis to identify
  relationships between the emotional variables and
  create "emotional groupings" that factored
  together as statistically significant means to
  understanding the variation of feeling on this
  critical event.
• The analysis yielded five specific emotional
  groupings, all of which matched strongly with
  findings from our analysis of aggregate and
  cross-tabulated data.

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Naming the Groups

• After running our analysis and creating the five
  distinct groups, we gave each group a name
  descriptive of the emotions associated with it.
• For example, the Uplifted Spirits group is
  defined by high levels of association with the
  emotions hopeful, proud, and generous.
• Finally, each of the five groups was profiled
  top subgroups from the crosstabs were identified
  and key issues were examined to see what
  differences there were to be found.

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Group Associations
1.
2.

• SHARED SORROWS UPLIFTED SPIRITS
• Sympathetic Hopeful
• Sad Proud
• Generous
• FEARFUL HEARTS WORRIED MINDS
• Terrified Hopeless Uncertain
• Panicky Nervous Worried
• Scared Depressed Disgusted
• IRON HANDS
• Vengeful
• Angry
• Aggressive
• Outraged

3.
4.
5.
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Group ProfileUPLIFTED SPIRITS (54 of the
total sample)
Top Subgroups
Other Key Data

• College-educated women
• Income 60K-80K
• Age 45-54
• Men 18-54 years old
• Great Lakes region
• White men
• Republicans
• Republican Men
• College Graduates

• Military Households
• 41 (2nd out of 5 groups)
• Mood of Nation
• 73 RD/20 WT
• Generic Cong. Ballot
• 47 GOP/35 Dem.
• Likelihood of Recession
• 29 very / 75 total
• Associated Group(s)
• Fearful Hearts, Worried Minds

Emotions Hopeful, Proud, Generous
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Group ProfileFEARFUL HEARTS (47 of the total
sample)
Top Subgroups
Other Key Data

• Women at home
• Women 35-54
• Independent women
• Suburban women
• Democrat women
• Rural women
• Democrats
• High school or less well-educated
• African Americans

• Military Households
• 32 (4th out of 5 groups)
• Mood of Nation
• 61 RD/27 WT
• Generic Cong. Ballot
• 35 GOP/46 Dem.
• Likelihood of Recession
• 31 very / 81 total
• Associated Group(s)
• Worried Minds

Emotions Terrified, Panicky, Scared, Hopeless,
Nervous, Depressed
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Group ProfileWORRIED MINDS (42 of the total
sample)
Top Subgroups
Other Key Data

• Democrat women
• Women 18-54 years old
• Women at home
• Farm Belt region
• Rural women
• White women
• Income 40K-60K
• College-educated women
• Weak Democrats
• Suburban women

• Military Households
• 30 (5th out of 5 groups)
• Mood of Nation
• 59 RD/30 WT
• Generic Cong. Ballot
• 38 GOP/43 Dem.
• Likelihood of Recession
• 31 very / 81 total
• Associated Group(s)
• Fearful Hearts

Emotions Uncertain, Worried, Disgusted
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Group ProfileIRON HANDS (31 of the total
sample)
Top Subgroups
Other Key Data

• Republican men
• Men 18-34
• Suburban men
• Non-college men
• Men, 60 or older, retired
• Great Lakes region
• Mid-Atlantic region
• Rural men
• Democrat men
• Republicans

• Military Households
• 44 (1st out of 5 groups)
• Mood of Nation
• 69 RD/23 WT
• Generic Cong. Ballot
• 49 GOP/35 Dem.
• Likelihood of Recession
• 27 very / 70 total
• Associated Group(s)
• Uplifted Spirits

Emotions Vengeful, Angry, Aggressive, Outraged
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Group ProfileSHARED SORROWS

• 84 of the total sample is included in this
  group, making it the most inclusive group of the
  five.
• While most people find themselves in this group,
  this group tends to be
• More heavily female (90, versus 78 male). Men
  between 18-34 years old are particularly less apt
  to be in this group (only 69, versus 87 of
  women in this same age group)
• Be very evenly distributed by both party and
  region Republicans, Democrats, and Independents
  from all regions of the country are found in
  similar proportions. This certainly underscores
  that the emotions that characterize this group
  are nearly universal across the American public.

Emotions Sympathetic, Sad
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In all of our decisions, we need to recognize the
difference in how people in Boston, New York, and
Washington are feeling about this story versus
people who do not live in one of the target
cities.

• Thirty-one percent (31)of those living in the
  Boston, New York or Washington, DC media markets
  say they themselves know someone who is missing,
  hurt or killed in the terrorist attacks as
  opposed to 3 in the rest of the country.
• Another 56 of those living in the Boston, New
  York or Washington, DC media markets say they
  have friends or relatives who know someone who
  is missing, hurt or killed in the terrorist
  attacks as opposed to 21 in the rest of the
  country.
• Residents of New York are more likely to
  describe themselves as vengeful and
  depressed. Residents of Washington, DC and New
  York are more likely to describe themselves as
  worried and scared compared to other
  Americans.

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In all of our decisions, we need to recognize the
difference in how people in Boston, New York, and
Washington are feeling about this story versus
people who do not live in one of the target
cities.

• And theres a double-whammy among respondents
  in these three media markets They are
  significantly more likely to say they have heard
  their friends and neighbor talking about
  concerns about losing their job. In fact, more
  than three out of ten say either they have or
  they personally know someone who has already
  lost their job or been told they will be laid
  off since the attack on September 11th.