West Lafayette Schools Enrollment Projections

1
West Lafayette Schools Enrollment Projections

• Prepared by
• Indiana Business Research Center
• Kelley School of Business
• Indiana University
• December 2002

2
Basic changes in enrollment
A cohort is a group of students of born in the
same year. The movement of 600 current students
from the 1st to the 2nd grade is an inter-cohort
transition. Where there had been 500 students in
the 2nd grade, the new cohort brings in an
additional 100 students,raising the 2nd grade
enrollment to 600.
350
The change within the cohort from year 1 to year
2 results in an increase of 250 students. This
is the intra-cohort progression. The total
change (350) is composed of these two elements
(100250).
3
Enrollment projection model
Current enrollment
Transition multipliers
Continuing students
Future enrollment
Historic enrollment
Entering students
Progression multipliers
New housing
Demographic change in existing housing
4
Considerations concerning West Lafayettes
Housing Enrollment Growth
5
HISTORICAL GROWTH WILL BE ALTERED BY

• West Lafayette rapidly reaching full
  single-family residential development.
• Purdue University plans no further on-campus
  housing at present. 600 units of married student
  housing will be phased out over the next few
  years.
• Existing older single-family housing in West
  Lafayette is relatively expensive by Indiana
  standards.

6
COUPLED WITH

• High academic standards of West Lafayette Schools
  is an attraction for families.
• New apartment complexes northwest of Purdue are
  very viable competition for students
  traditionally drawn to rental conversions in the
  immediate campus area.
• The citys efforts to limit rental conversions
  and occupancy density.
• The efforts of non-profit neighborhood based
  organizations to promote property rehabilitation
  and home ownership.

7
RESULTS IN

• An end to enrollment expansion tied to new
  housing starts.
• The probability of a continued slowdown in
  single-family homes being converted to student
  rentals.
• The majority of new family households moving into
  the West Lafayette Schools district being older
  than the norm.
• Enrollment at the K-1 entry levels will be stable
  with limited enrollment growth coming at the
  later elementary and junior high grades.

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IMPLIES?

• Total enrollment numbers being stable over the
  remainder of the decade.
• A potential need for re-allocation of "bricks and
  mortar" resources to meet changing enrollment
  patterns.
• The possibility of some enrollment decline should
  Purdue elect to admit larger numbers of students.

9
Housing alternatives

• Net Survey based on interviews with
  knowledgeable developers and housing experts as
  well as observations by IBRC staff
• Zero Survey reflects the potential impact of
  Purdue increasing enrollment at mid-1990s
  levels.
• Gross Survey A survey for comparison purposes
  only showing enrollment patterns if there is no
  growth in rental of exisiting single-family
  housing.

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West Lafayette Enrollment Projections
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West Lafayette Enrollment Projections Grades K to
3
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West Lafayette Enrollment Projections Grades 4 to
6
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West Lafayette Enrollment Projections Grades 7
to 12
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West Lafayette Enrollment by gradeNet Survey
Actual
Projected
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WLS Composition of enrollment
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West Lafayette Annual Enrollment Changes
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West Lafayette Entry Enrollment K 1st grade
cohort growth