Economics 172 Issues in African Economic Development

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Economics 172Issues in African Economic
Development

• Lecture 17
• March 16, 2006

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• Outline
• Impacts of slavery on African economic
  development (Nunn 2005)
• Historical population density and political power
  in Africa (Herbst 2000)

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Long-run impacts of slavery in Africa

• Nunn (2005) compiled a new dataset on the country
  of origin of individuals sent to the New World in
  the Atlantic Ocean and Indian Ocean slave trades,
  using shipping records, slave ethnicity data
• He assigns people shipped from a particular port
  as originally coming from that country or its
  neighbors (e.g., people shipped from ports today
  in Ghana are assigned to either Ghana or Burkina
  Faso)

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Map of Africa
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Long-run impacts of slavery in Africa

• Nunn (2005) compiled a new dataset on the country
  of origin of individuals sent to the New World in
  the Atlantic Ocean and Indian Ocean slave trades,
  using shipping records, slave ethnicity data
• He assigns people shipped from a particular port
  as originally coming from that country or its
  neighbors (e.g., people shipped from ports today
  in Ghana are assigned to either Ghana or Burkina
  Faso)
• Although an improvement, there are many ways this
  could generate imperfect data

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Numbers of slaves taken, by country

• Nunn constructs a measure of slavery exposure

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Long-run impacts

• The main regression equation is
• The Y variables here include long-run income
  levels (per capita), economic growth rates,
  political outcomes. Nunn finds consistently
  negative impacts of slavery exposure on later
  economic outcomes

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Long-run impacts

• The magnitude of these negative effects is quite
  large a 1 s.d. increase in slave exports
  increases annual per capita economic growth
  during 1960-2000 by 1.25
• There are also adverse impacts on many other
  political and institutional outcomes (Table 12).
  How to interpret the true channels leading to
  poor economic outcomes?

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Interpretation of Nunns results

• Countries most exposed to European slave trading
  today look much worse off than other African
  countries. Several of Africas success stories
  (e.g., Botswana) were untouched by the trade

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Interpretation of Nunns results

• Countries most exposed to European slave trading
  today look much worse off than other African
  countries. Several of Africas success stories
  (e.g., Botswana) were untouched by the trade
• But it is unclear exactly what the cause of this
  is. There are many theoretically plausible
  mechanisms through which slavery could affect
  current outcomes

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Interpretation of Nunns results

• Countries most exposed to European slave trading
  today look much worse off than other African
  countries. Several of Africas success stories
  (e.g., Botswana) were untouched by the trade
• But it is unclear exactly what the cause of this
  is. There are many theoretically plausible
  mechanisms through which slavery could affect
  current outcomes
• Omitted variables were the areas with the
  weakest political institutions historically most
  preyed upon?

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• Outline
• Impacts of slavery on African economic
  development (Nunn 2005)
• Historical population density and political power
  in Africa (Herbst 2000)

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Population density and politics in Africa

• The basic idea historically, land was abundant
  in Africa and population was low. The scarce
  resource was labor not land

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Population density and politics in Africa

• The basic idea historically, land was abundant
  in Africa and population was low. The scarce
  resource was labor not land
• Wars in Sub-Saharan Africa traditionally were
  over control of labor (the valuable scarce
  resource) rather than the control of land
• The result is that warfare and politics look very
  different historically in Africa than in Europe
  or Asia, with their much higher population
  densities

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Table 1.1, 1990 population densities

• Region Density in 1900 (people/km2)
• Japan 118.2
• Europe 62.9
• China 45.6
• South Asia 38.2
• Sub-Saharan Africa 4.4
• Latin America 3.7

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Table 1.1, 1990 population densities

• Region Density in 1900 (people/km2)
• Japan 118.2
• Europe 62.9
• China 45.6
• South Asia 38.2
• Sub-Saharan Africa 4.4
• Latin America 3.7
• Why was population density so low in Africa?

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Table 1.1, 1990 population densities

• Region Density in 1900 (people/km2)
• Japan 118.2
• Europe 62.9
• China 45.6
• South Asia 38.2
• Sub-Saharan Africa 4.4
• Latin America 3.7
• Why was population density so low in Africa?
• (i) Tropical disease (ii) Low agricultural
  productivity
• (iii) The slave trade

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Population density and politics in Africa

• Low population density made it difficult to
  radiate political power over space
• Exception the highlands of East Africa (e.g.,
  Rwanda)

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Population density and politics in Africa

• Low population density made it difficult to
  radiate political power over space
• Exception the highlands of East Africa (e.g.,
  Rwanda)
• This picture begins to change in the 18th and
  19th century, with the importation of millions of
  guns as part of the Slave Trade
• Larger states emerge during this period Sokoto
  Emirate in Nigeria, Zulu Empire in Southern
  Africa, Buganda in Uganda, Ashanti in Ghana.
  Other important pre-colonial states include
  Swahili-Omani Kingdom, Ethiopia, Liberia

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The rise of European colonialism

• This process of political consolidation was
  short-circuited by European conquest in the late
  1800s
• Why did Europeans decide to conquer Africa, after
  being content for hundreds of years with trade?

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The rise of European colonialism

• This process of political consolidation was
  short-circuited by European conquest in the late
  1800s
• Why did Europeans decide to conquer Africa, after
  being content for hundreds of years with trade?
• (1) The invention of quinine greatly reduced the
  threat of malaria for Europeans
• (2) The invention of the machine gun (the Maxim
  gun) greatly increased their relative military
  might

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Map of Africa