Presented to

1
The Pathway to ElectricWhy Utilities are
Interested in PHEV and EV

• Presented to
• 2008 National Alternative Fuel Vehicle Day
  Odyssey
• Leading the Way to Sustainable Transportation
• Winnipeg, Manitoba
• October 3, 2008
• By
• Tom Molinski P.Eng. EOE
• Emerging Energy Systems

2
What is a PHEV?
Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle
3
Why are Utilities Interested?

• Direct Utility Concerns
• Large new load
• V2H and V2G
• Greening our fleet
• Indirect Utility Concerns
• Climate change
• Reduce use of fossil fuels
• Fossil fuels are limited
• Improve from MB
• Reduce pollution
• Customers better off
• Potential for new jobs
• Influence government policy

4
Issues with PHEV and EV Load

• PHEV and EV from OEM and retrofit
• Adoption rates
• Operation in cold weather
• How to supply large new load
• Desire to supply off peak
• MB has existing infrastructure
• Fast charging
• Chargers generate harmonics
• Standardize plugs and communication

5
OEMs

• Almost all automobile manufacturers are
  developing EVs or PHEVs
• GM Volt PHEV 2010
• Ford No roll out date
• Toyota PHEV EV 2010
• Chrysler EV 2010
• Nissan EV 2010 (PHEV later)
• Mitsubishi iMiEV EV 2009
• Mercedes EV 2010
• Smart EV 2010
• Also Volvo, Saab, Mazda
• And smaller manufacturers, such as Th!nk
• Honda is biggest holdout on PHEV

6
Issues with PHEV and EV Load

• PHEV and EV from OEM and retrofit
• Adoption rates
• Operation in cold weather
• How to supply large new load
• Desire to supply off peak
• MB has existing infrastructure
• Fast charging
• Chargers generate harmonics
• Standardize plugs and communication

7
PHEV Adoption Scenario
In 2020 if PHEV 10 of vehicle sales requires
10X increase in battery production
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Cowboy Wisdom

• Everybody gets so much information all day long
  that they lose their common sense
• ...Gertrude Stein

10
Issues with PHEV and EV Load

• PHEV and EV from OEM and retrofit
• Adoption rates
• Operation in cold weather
• How to supply large new load
• Desire to supply off peak
• MB has existing infrastructure
• Fast charging
• Chargers generate harmonics
• Standardize plugs and communication

11
Effects of Nighttime Charging
12
Issues with PHEV and EV Load

• PHEV and EV from OEM and retrofit
• Adoption rates
• Operation in cold weather
• How to supply large new load
• Desire to supply off peak
• MB has existing infrastructure
• Fast charging
• Chargers generate harmonics
• Standardize plugs and communication

13
Manitoba PHEV Infrastructure

• Manitoba has approximately 500,000 engine block
  heaters using 133 GWh/year

14
Issues with PHEV and EV Load

• PHEV and EV from OEM and retrofit
• Adoption rates
• Operation in cold weather
• How to supply large new load
• Desire to supply off peak
• MB has existing infrastructure
• Fast charging
• Chargers generate harmonics
• Standardize plugs and communication

15
Issues with V2H and V2G

• Economics
• Battery life
• Smart Grid
• Backup Power
• Peak Shaving
• Ancillary Services
• More renewables
• Demand Response

16
Greening our Fleet

• Improved fuel economy
• Reduced emissions
• Reduced mtce costs ?
• Standby power
• Improved performance
• Quiet operation
• Enhance corporate image

17
Possible Future MH Target PHEV Vehicles

• F350 or F550 size
• Line Service Trucks and Bucket Trucks

18
The Manitoba Hydro Fleet

• 1528 gasoline and 443 diesel vehicles
• 7.5 million litres of gasoline per year
• 2.3 million litres of diesel per year
• Over 200 new vehicles each year
• Potential for substantial savings on fuel

19
Why are Utilities Interested?

• Direct Utility Effects
• Large new load
• V2H and V2G
• Greening our fleet
• Indirect Utility Effects
• Climate change
• Reduce use of fossil fuels
• Fossil fuels are limited
• Improve BOP for MB
• Reduce pollution
• Customer better off
• Potential for new jobs
• Influence government policy

20
MB GHG Emissions by Sector, 2005
21
MB Transportation Emissions
22
Oil Discovery vs Consumption Trends
Consumption
This surplus fills the gap
?
Past discovery by ExxonMobil
USA consumption
Source Past data from ExxonMobil, US data from
DOE
23
Cowboy Wisdom

• When gasoline hits 10/litre, Ill keep my car
  and buy a loyal horse to pull it six days a week.
  
• On the 7th day, Ill switch back to gasoline
  and the horse can take a break and ride with
  me..

24
Why are Utilities Interested?

• Direct Utility Effects
• Large new load
• V2H and V2G
• Greening our fleet
• Indirect Utility Effects
• Climate change
• Reduce use of fossil fuels
• Fossil fuels are limited
• Improve from MB
• Reduce pollution
• Customers better off
• Potential for new jobs
• Influence government policy

25
Energy Consumption in Manitoba
Source Energy in Manitoba, Manitoba Government
26
Why are Utilities Interested?

• Direct Utility Effects
• Large new load
• V2H and V2G
• Greening our fleet
• Indirect Utility Effects
• Climate change
• Reduce use of fossil fuels
• Fossil fuels are limited
• Improve BOP for MB
• Reduce pollution
• Customer better off
• Potential for new jobs
• Influence government policy

27
Thank You For Listening
Only easy questions but after the next speaker
Tom Molinski, P.Eng EOE
28
Why are Utilities Interested?

• Potential New Load
• Load Leveling
• Exiting Infrastructure in Northern Latitudes
• V2H and V2G
• More renewables
• PHEV Vehicles in Utility Fleet
• Climate Change
• Depletion of Fossil Fuels
• Enhance Corporate Image

29
Why are Utilities Interested?

• Potential New Load
• Load Leveling
• Exiting Infrastructure in Northern Latitudes
• V2H and V2G
• More renewables
• PHEV Vehicles in Utility Fleet
• Climate Change
• Depletion of Fossil Fuels
• Enhance Corporate Image

30
Why Should Utilities be Interested?

• Potential New Load
• Load Leveling
• Exiting Infrastructure in Northern Latitudes
• V2H V2G
• More Renewables
• PHEV Vehicles in Utility Fleet
• Climate Change
• Depletion of Fossil Fuels
• Enhance Corporate Image

31
Why Should Utilities be Interested?

• Potential New Load
• Load Leveling
• Exiting Infrastructure in Northern Latitudes
• V2H V2G
• More Renewables
• PHEV Vehicles in Utility Fleet
• Climate Change
• Depletion of Fossil Fuels
• Enhance Corporate Image

32
Manitobas Private Fleet

• Existing Private Fleet Vehicles
• 28 of fleet is comprised of 1994 and older
  vehicles, one of the oldest fleets in Canada
• Fleet average fuel economy is estimated at 19mpg
  (15L/100k)
• 2006 - Vehicle Purchase Trends
• 46,000 new vehicle purchased only 13 achieved 40
  mpg
• 58 of new vehicles sold in Manitoba were trucks
  Manitoba is one of only three Canadian provinces
  where light-duty truck sales significantly exceed
  light duty passenger vehicle sales

33
PHEV and Wind
PHEV and Generation
34
Why Should Utilities be Interested?

• Potential New Load
• Load Leveling
• Exiting Infrastructure in Northern Latitudes
• V2H V2G
• More Renewables
• PHEV Vehicles in Utility Fleet
• Climate Change
• Depletion of Fossil Fuels
• Enhance Corporate Image

35
Benefits of Action

• Financial outflows of 200 million annually, from
  the purchase of fossil fuels from outside of
  Manitoba are being entirely offset by equivalent
  investments in local biofuel production.
• Increased production of biofuels is expected to
  reduce provincial GHG emissions by 200,000 tonnes
  annually.
• Improving urban air quality
• Becoming a leader in low-emitting vehicle
  technologies
• Diversifying the farm economy while lowering
  on-farm costs

36
How to Reduce Reliance on Oil

• Invest in fuel efficient vehicles
• Find new fuels
• Develop cars that dont need gasoline

37
Why is Manitoba Hydro Interested?

• Potential New Load
• - Load Leveling
• Due Diligence
• Existing Infrastructure
• Climate Change
• Enhance Corporate Image
• V2G

38
Why Is MH Interested in Emerging Energy
Technologies

• Prepares MH to Adopt
• New Technologies
• Niche Applications
• Waste to Energy
• Inherent Balance of TBL Factors
• Stakeholder Interest

39
What is the future of the PHEV?

• Production of PHEV starts in 2010
• Toyota Prius PHEV
• Chevy Volt
• MH Fleet desires PHEV
• Current infrastructure in Manitoba sufficient for
  400,000 cars with night time charging
• V2G Vehicle to Grid potential
• Create Public Awareness
• Encourage Manufacturing
• Lease PHEV Battery

40
Why is Manitoba Hydro Interested in Vehicles?

• Support two corporate goals
• Due diligence
• Create Public Demand
• Encourage Manufacturing
• Demand Response
• Ancillary Services
• Analyze the effects of plug-ins on power grid
• Develop policies and guidelines before PHEVs
  become a large load on the power grid

41
PHEV Customer Advantages

• Significant savings in fuel
• Environmentally friendly
• Reduced emissions
• Back-up power
• Fewer stops for gasoline
• Run air conditioning on electricity
• Fuel flexibility

42
PHEV Customers Disadvantages

• Higher initial cost
• No Tax incentives for PHEVs
• Requirement to plug in every day
• Limited range on electric mode
• Repairs initially at few locations
• Cold weather operation
• Heat interior by running engine

43
Positive Impacts of PHEVs on Manitoba

• Displace gasoline with clean hydroelectricity
• Reduce import of refined oil
• More efficient use of generation facilities via
  base loading
• Very little new infrastructure required

44
Negative Impacts of PHEVs on Manitoba

• During droughts Manitoba Hydro will require extra
  energy
• Manitoba Hydro would have less energy to export
• May require earlier development of new generation
• Unknown adoption rate
• Public misunderstanding of GHG

45
Effect of Block Heaters on the Manitoba Load
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Potential Manitoba Load Growth for PHEV-20
Adoption
47
PHEV Gasoline Savings
48
Typical MH Load
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Vehicles Required to Level Manitoba Load
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Market Penetration
51
Nighttime Load Winter
New MW power
FCV
BEV
PHEV
Source Eric Bibeau
52
V2G

• Nighttime trough.
• Zigbee communication profile.

www.125mpg.com
53
V2G

• Nighttime trough.
• ZigBee communication profile.

www.125mpg.com
54
PHEVs Help Biofuels
55
V2G
Arrows indicate direction of power flow
56
Main Energy Drivers

• Climate change
• Reduce pollution
• Energy security
• Non-renewable sources
• are limited
• Balance of TBL
• Stakeholder interest
• Technological Advances

57
Battery Technology
H2 equivalent

• Batteries are overdue for a new image!
• 230 increase in energy storage density in 15
  years!
• 91 reduction in cost in 15 years!
• Improvements still occurring
• 300-400 Wh/kg 750-1000 Wh/l possible in 10
  years.
• 1000 Wh/kg possible with Li-air.

58
Not Just Transportation
59
Fuel-to-Wheels Efficiency
25
gasoline/nat gas
wheels
25
ICE
30
gasoline/nat gas
wheels
30
HEV
Fossil
30
70
35
90
90
gasoline/nat gas
H2
elec
wheels
20
FC
H2
stor
70
35
90
90
H2
elec
wheels
20
FC
elec
H2
stor
Renewable
90
95
90
Li-ion
elec
wheels
77
EV
elec
70
35
90
55
90
nat gas
H2
elec
wheels
11
FC
elec
H2
stor
Fossil
90
95
90
55
nat gas
Li-ion
elec
wheels
42
EV
elec
32
gasoline/nat gas elec
NO NET EFFICIENCY
wheels
PHEV
Mixed
mix of 42-77
20
70
90
35 x 90
H2
H2
31-49 (PHEV-25)
wheels
FC PHEV
Renewable(or mixed)
mix of 42-77
elec
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H2
PHEV
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Manitoba V2G Vehicle To Grid

• Assume
• 620,000 vehicles in MB.
• ½ are V2G-capable.
• ½ are plugged-in.
• ½ of battery capacity is available.
• If EnergyCS PHEV-30s
• 1 kW (10 kW), 9kWh
• V2G power 160 MW
• V2G energy 700 MWh
• If Tesla Roadster EVs
• 20 kW (200 kW), 50 kWh
• V2G power 3,100 MW
• V2G energy 3,900 MWh
• Substantial free balancing resource.
• Peak shaving.
• Load following.

64
What needs to be done?

• Continue to collect data
• Data also sent to Idaho National lab
• Analyze data
• Prepare report

65
Cowboy Wisdom

• In the global economy there are but two choices
  
• Innovate or Evaporate
• Norm Augustine

66
Definition of a Madman
Anyone who believes that exponential growth can
go on forever in a finite world is either a
madman or an economist. Kenneth E. Boulding
1910-1993
67
Data Loggers

• Hymotion
• Kvaser
• Persentech
• OttoLink Otto Driving Companion
• AEMC
• Power Quality Logger (PQL 100)

68
Installing CAN-bus Data Loggers

• OBD-II Port via Serial Cable to Data Loggers

69
Vehicle Fuel Costs/km
Currency in CDN
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Life-Cycle GHG Emissions
Source Pembina Institute for Appropriate
Development
72
Parallel vs Series Hybrids

• Parallel
• Gas electric motors work together.

• Series
• Output of gas motor feeds battery then electric
  motor.

73
Hybrid Electric VehiclesWhat are they and how do
they work?

• An HEV combines the internal combustion engine
  of a conventional vehicle with the battery and
  electric motor of an electric vehicle.
• Energy storage Batteries, ultracapacitors,
  flywheels
• Power unit Fuel cells, spark ignition engines,
  compression ignition direct injection engines,
  gas turbines
• Propulsion Mechanical input (parallel
  configuration), electric motor (series
  configuration)
• Parallel vehicle Series vehicle

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What is a PHEV?
www.125mpg.com
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PHEV Research Project

• Approved June 29, 2005.
• Purchased 2005 Toyota Prius Hybrid.
• Modify for plug-in capability
• Operate and collect data for one year.
• Hymotion conversion Fall 2007.
• Goals
• Operation and reliability.
• Cold weather capability.
• Effects of PHEVs on the MH system.
• Feasibility of off-peak charging.
• Promote technology and increase public awareness.

76
Positive Impacts of PHEVs on Manitoba

• Displace gasoline with clean hydroelectricity
• Reduce import of refined oil
• More efficient use of generation facilities via
  base loading
• Very little new infrastructure required

77
A cynic is someone who knows the price of
everything and the value of nothing.
Oscar Wilde 1820-1890