The Causes of War

1
The Causes of War

• Why do we fight wars?
• Is it part of the Human Condition?
• Is it inevitable?

2
Can we classify the causes of War?

• The rather artificial hierarchy provided here is
  structured like Abraham Maslow's hierarchy of
  needs.
• Human Instincts
• Human Needs
• Human Values
• Human Thoughts
• Certain needs are fundamental or instinctual
• Others are higher order - cognitive

3
Human Instincts

• Survival
• The Individual level Is war a function of human
  nature?
• Does the gene pool change as a result of warfare?
• Survival (personal fitness - as in survival of
  the fittest)
• Inclusive Fitness- Personal Fitness Kinship
  component
• Kinship groups with a predisposition towards
  altruism will tend to survive better than a tribe
  of individuals.
• Has the individual calculus of war changed?
• In 1700 life expectancy was quite short - 35
  years
• To go off to war at 18-19 was not as great a
  risk!
• The value of human life was self-perceived much
  differently back then.

4
Territorial Imperative

• Do we have an instinct for territory?
• Ardrey territory
• Elevators ?
• PRT ?
• Territorial marking
• Sovereignty
• Isnt it territory
• Peace of Westphalia 1648
• ended thirty Years war between major European
  Powers
• Right of National self-determination

5
Aggression

• Aggression
• - is war a biological urge ?
• - are submissive behaviors instinctual?

6
Nature continued

• Is Warfare a constant of the human condition
• the Swiss ?
• classic Ci vis Pacem, Para Bellum.
• many generations without war

7
Power seekers?

• Is ther such a thing as Power seeking behavior?
• biological high
• Epinephrine/norepinephrine
• The Great Man/Great General hypothesis
• Are these people different?

8
Human Needs - Economic Factors

• Resources
• Oil
• Chaco War
• - Persian Gulf
• Gold/Precious Metals Minerals
• Wwater
• Arable soil
• Protein deficiency ???!!!
• Population pressure
• Food

9
The distribution of resources

• Equity
• Social cleavages
• populations submerged (Lithuanians !!)
• populations divided (Kurds)
• populations denied (South Africa)

10
The Economic organization of society

• Imperialism
• Declining rate of profit
• Search for markets and raw materials
• Economic competition in less developed world will
  lead to conflict.

11
Political Organization

• The Democratic peace
• Democracies tend to not fight other democracies

12
Globalization and Other economic issues

• Free Trade
• Comparative advantage
• Interdependence raises costs of conflict
  reduces probability of war

13
Human Values

• Religion
• Touted as the greatest cause of war
• Name one!
• Northern Ireland - No
• Arab-Israeli - No
• Iran - Possibly
• Crusades - Not the 1st
• Possibly others
• Spanish conquest No
• Current rise of Fundamental Islamic Terrorism -
  maybe
• Culture of violence
• Richardson/Toynbee war-weariness
• The appeal of war ebbs and flows cyclical

14
Human Thoughts

• Perception
• Language - the tower of Babel
• Esperanto Volapuk
• the two languages couldn't agree on which was
  best
• and Volapuk eventually fell apart after an
  internal dispute over grammar
• And Esperanto A and Esperanto B advocates
  couldnt get along either.
• Cognition
• Selective perception
• Mirror Imaging
• Cognitive Dissonance

15
Human Thoughts (cont.)

• Relative deprivation
• expectations not met
• sudden drop in needs acquisition
• Historical Patterns
• Soviet and Israeli concerns for safe borders
• (or is this territoriality cropping up)

16
Calculation

• Rational Decision
• Strike while the advantage is with you
• WWI, WWII,
• Strike before you loss your 'window of
  opportunity'
• Arms Races
• Success begets adventurism
• As acquired wealth lowers costs, adventurism
  becomes more acceptable
• Saddam Hussein the Persian Gulf
• Belief in a swift victory
• WWI, WWII, Persian Gulf, Iraq

17
Classic Opportunities

• Deathwatch
• Russia, Poland and Denmark invades Sweden in 1700
  after death of Karl XI in 1697 (Karl XII was 15)
• They were all cousins BTW
• Sweden returns the complement in 1741.
• Concern over Tito's death in Yugoslavia in
  1981-82 (?)
• Soviet/Russian concerns about Castro Cuba
• Scapegoat wars
• Domestic conflict causes leaders to seek
  diversion mechanisms
• Falkands/Malvinas

18
Human Organization

• The Structure of the International System
• Polarity
• Polarization
• Long Cycles Global War

19
(No Transcript)
20
Technology and International Relations

• Three concepts to keep in mind with the changes
  in technology
• Loss-of-strength gradient
• Offense vs. defense
• Technology influences the ability of political
  units to sustain themselves

21
Paleolithic

• Bones, sticks, and rocks
• Clubs
• Crude axes knives
• Language
• Command, Control, Communication
• Fire
• Fire hardened sticks
• Preserved food
• Provided warmth
• Increased survival rate
• Larger families tribal systems
• The wall
• smaller of defenders versus attackers
• wait prepared
• this made agriculture "cost-effective
• Rise of towns

22
Paleolithic Weapons (cont)

• Projectile weapons
• Spear
• Arrow
• Sling
• Striking weapons
• Knife
• Ax
• Sword
• Armor
• Shield
• Body Armor

23
Neolithic Weapons

• Bronze age Iron Age
• Striking weapons
• Knife
• Ax
• Sword
• Armor
• Shield
• Body Armor

24
Early empires

• Logistics
• Maps
• Horses/cavalry
• Chariots weapon/transportation system

25
Greeks

• Military discipline
• Hierarchical structure chain of command
• The Phalanx
• allowed for protection on the right
• made attacks predictable
• The ability to march and maneuver offset this.
• The Galley
• Transportation
• Naval Battles ram/board
• Siege weapons
• Catapults

26
Roman Empire

• Professional soldier
• discipline
• Mobility
• Roads
• Prohibited castles early on
• increase in horsemanship
• Transportation ride to battle dismount
• Stirrups invented by Chinese in 477 AD (?)
• Made it to Europe in 7th 8th century
• Rome forced to allow castles in later days
• height
• fortress Europe

27
Medieval

• Castle construction evolved
• Cavalry used for sorties
• Cannon
• Constantinople 1453

28
Seapower

• The Galley had been the mainstay of naval
  weaponry for 2000 years ramming and boarding the
  traditional maneuver
• Cannon changed this.
• up to 40 of the firepower could be used at one
  time.
• Sailing speed increased somewhat up until the
  adoption of steam propulsion and ironclads.
• This led to the need for supply bases (ports)
  which led to a further rash of colonization in
  the late 1800's

29
The American Civil War

• The trench
• Railroad
• Balloon
• Ironclads

30
WWI

• Machine gun (WWI)- defensive
• Tank (WWI)
• The Airplane (WWI)
• Poison Gas/Chemical weapons
• Submarine (Invented in Revolutionary War)
• Radio

31
WWII

• Sub Machine gun portable, offensive
• Automobile
• The aircraft carrier
• Radar
• Rocket/missile (WWII)
• Nuclear weapons (WWII)

32
Vietnam

• Helicopter
• Computers
• Precision instruments
• Satellites
• ICBMs

33
Persian Gulf/Iraq

• Stealth technology
• Information battlefield
• Cyber War
• Unmanned aircraft
• Predator

34
All of which leads us to the present

• Star Wars
• NMD
• Cyber War
• Weapon system senility
• Weapon systems age
• Or become vulnerable and are replaced
• The proportion of system cost for protection of
  the system becomes disproportionately large.

35
Star Wars (Strategic Defense Initiative - NMD)

• Begun in previous administrations
• Nike-Zeus
• ABM
• And announced and promoted under Reagan
• SDI is a defensive concept
• Concept is the implementation of a defensive
  shield to protect against ICBMs

36
Type of SDI systems

• Energy Weapons
• Lasers
• Particle Beams
• Space bases kinetic energy weapons
• Rail guns
• Interceptors
• Ground based ABM systems
• ERIS (Exo-atmospheric Reentry Interceptor
  Subsystem)
• HEDI (High Endoatmospheric Defense Interceptor)

37
Star Wars (Strategic Defense Initiative - NMD)

• The basics of anti-ballistic missile defense
• Time Altitude
• Boost phase 300 - 50 secs 400km
• Bus Phase 60 - 650 secs
• Midcourse Phase
• Reentry Phase

38
Kinetic energy weapons

• KE weapons work based upon their velocity, and
  the velocity of the target
• Thus a 1gr bullet traveling at 2000km/sec imparts
  2000000gr/sec2 of energy
• Thus a 1gr bullet traveling at 12000km/sec
  imparts 72000000gr/sec2 of energy
• Damage is exponential with velocity

39
Effort for Full SDI Shield

• The magnitude of the support effort required
• 1. of satellites
• since effective range of most systems is 1000km
• satellites must be in low earth orbit. Therefore
  on station only 5 of the time 24000/1000 24
  satellites for 100 coverage
• If each satellite can hit 140 launch vehicles
• (or 1400 deployed MIRVs)
• this means 240 satellites
• If each satellite requires 3 shuttle/lifter
  launches
• _at_ 100M apiece

40
NMD

• Ground Based Interceptors (GBIs)
• Battle Management, Command, Control, and
  Communications (BMC3), which includes
• Battle Management, Command, and Control (BMC2),
  and
• In-Flight Interceptor Communications System
  (IFICS)
• X-Band Radars (XBRs)
• Upgraded Early Warning Radar (UEWR)
• Defense Support Program satellites/Space-Based
  Infrared System (SBIRS)

41
(No Transcript)
42
(No Transcript)
43
The Future of War

• What are the key big ticket items in todays
  military?
• Tanks
• Aircraft carriers
• Bombers
• Fighters
• Increasingly larger portions of procurement costs
  of weapons systems are devoted to defense

44
Weapons systems senility

• Smart weapons
• Sensors
• Increasing load/cost devoted to system defense
• Cost of M1A1 is 4.3M
• Cost of Hellfire is 50K-200K
• A SADARM is 7000

45
Take Aircraft carriers

• Where most effective
• Close support in coastal waters
• Most vulnerable
• Anti-ship missiles (e.g. Exocet)
• Aircraft 50 used for carrier defense
• Mines
• Cost is 6B

46
What Next?

• Increasing miniaturization
• Increasing broadband information processing
• Nanotechnology

47

• Over the next century look for
• The End of the Gunboat
• The End of the Carrier
• The End of the Tank
• The End of the Submarine
• The End of the Manned Combat Aircraft
• Sensors, stand-off capability, and troop mobility

48
The Evolution of Weapons Systems

• Think in terms of
• Adaptation
• Survival of fittest
• Environmental niches