General Trends in Armed Conflict

1
General Trends in Armed Conflict

• proportion of countries in wars has declined
  since 1990 only four of the active conflicts were
  fought between states
• most wars occur in the Global South, which has
  the highest number of states with the largest
  populations, the lowest income and the least
  stable govts. noncombatants are primary
  victims
• war is no longer fought to gain foreign territory
  (which explains why it doesnt involve states as
  much)
• war between great powers becoming obsolete (long
  peace since 1945)
• asymmetric wars more common irregular militias
  and terrorist networks with unconventional
  tactics engage the (stronger) conventional armies
  of nation-states
• terrorism brings a new dimension

2
225 armed conflicts occurred between 1946 and
2001, with the number peaking in 1992 at 51 more
than 31 conflicts occurred each year in the 1970s
and more than 40 each year in the 1980s and 90s
3

• Wars between states

• Wars within states

• Realpolitik countries should prepare for war in
  order to preserve peace
• Have changed (lessened) due to WMD
• Nonproliferation just doesnt work

• No longer purely internal - between 1989-2000
  there were 111 civil armed conflicts involving
  more than 80 external states and several regional
  IGOs
• Genocide more common tool of civil war, longer,
  resistant to negotiation
• Globalization intervention to preserve
  financial interests

4
War First Level of Analysis

• relationship between human nature and aggression
  is genetic/instinctive (Freud)
• humans one of the few species to practice
  intraspecific aggression (Konrad Lorenz)
• Humans have a territorial imperative that makes
  them instinctively defend their territory
• The drive for power and aggression is innate
  (Realist theory)
• Social Darwinism the fittest will survive and
  others will not
• CONTROVERSIAL most social scientists disagree
  because there are some societies that never
  experience warfare. Also, why do we have to train
  soldiers to fight and why do many experience PTSD
  afterwards?

5
War Second Level of Analysis

• Looks at states internal characteristics
• geographic location
• cultural determinants of specific states
• Xenophobia (fear of foreigners)
• Socialization (how we learn acceptable behaviors)
• civil strife, often caused by economic conditions
  and relative deprivation (perception that they
  are unfairly deprived of wealth that others have)
• communism v. capitalism
• political institutions
• Democratic peace theory (democracies dont fight
  each other)
• nationalism

6
The Advance of Democracy
Increase may be due to IGOs like the EU and WTO
making democracy a requirement to receive
benefits, not a matter of choice
7
Map 7.1
8
War Third Level of Analysis

• global characteristics (system structure) lead to
  war
• power distributions unipolar, bipolar,
  multipolar
• alliances crosscutting/overlapping cleavages
  affect interactions among states
• power transition theory war is likely when a
  dominant great power is threatened by the rapid
  growth of a rivals capabilities, which reduces
  the difference in their relative power
• power cycle theory war is probable when a state
  passes through certain critical points along a
  relative power curve (dethroning hegemons)

9
Terrorism

• premeditated politically motivated use or threat
  of violence against noncombatant targets,
  intended to induce fear in an audience
• a tactic of the relatively powerless against the
  relatively powerful
• The Most Common Objectives of Terrorism
• Agitational promoting the dissident group
  (propaganda)
• Coercive disorienting the target population,
  achieving concessions, etc.
• Organizational acquiring resources, building
  network, etc.

10

• Conventional tactics include bombs, hijacking,
  hostages
• Unconventional tactics include nuclear,
  biological, chemical weapons and cyberterrorism

11

• The New Global Terrorism

• Counterterrorism

• global in scope
• maximal lethality using suicidal agents
• non-hierarchical command structure
• al Qaeda/Osama bin Laden
• religious fanaticism

• Bush Doctrine Either you are with us, or you
  are with the terrorists.
• state-sponsored terrorism
• terrorism encouraged by
• relative deprivation
• failing states

12
For Discussion

• Statist Response

• Cosmopolitan Response

• Terrorist attacks are acts of war against the
  country in which they take place
• Put pressure on states who actively support or
  passively tolerate terrorists within their
  borders
• Terrorism is a fundamental conflict of values and
  goals

• Terrorist attacks are criminal acts that require
  international, multilateral response within the
  context of international law and organizations
• Must also get the root causes of terrorism
  poverty, inequality and discontent