ENCINITAS UNION SCHOOL DISTRICT EUSD

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ENCINITAS UNION SCHOOL DISTRICT(EUSD)

• DEMOGRAPHIC REPORT
• NOVEMBER 2004

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This report contains

• A review of forecasts made in 2002-03 and 2003-04
• What changes have occurred since June 2004
• The November 2004 forecast
• Implications for EUSD

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2002-03 Base Assumptions

• The City of Carlsbad forecast that an additional
  1,553 residential units could be constructed
  within EUSDs territory.
• The City of Encinitas forecast that an additional
  3,961 residential units could be constructed
  within EUSDs territory.
• The Pupils per Dwelling Unit ratios were as high
  as 0.486.
• Pupils per Dwelling Unit ratios of existing units
  located east of El Camino Real were increasing.

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2002-03 School Capacity and Enrollment Assumptions
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2002-03 West of El Camino Real Forecast
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2002-03 East of El Camino Real Forecast
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2002-03 District-wide Forecast
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November 2003-04 Base Assumptions

• The number of residential units to be developed
  within the Cities of Carlsbad and Encinitas had
  not changed.
• The Pupils per Dwelling Unit average ratios were
  0.263
• Pupils per Dwelling Unit ratios for existing
  residential units located east of El Camino Real
  were decreasing.

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2003-04 West of El Camino Real Forecast
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2003-04 East of El Camino Real Forecast
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2003-04 District-wide Forecast
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The April 2004 Demographic Update revealed

• The amount of residential units to be developed
  within the Cities of Carlsbad and Encinitas had
  decreased from 5,514 to 3,792.
• Home sales prices were increasing significantly.
• The average ratio of Pupils per Dwelling Unit of
  all school attendance areas had slightly
  increased from 0.263 to 0.275.

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April 2004 Demographic Update
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April 2004 Demographic Update
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The June 2004 Demographic Update revealed

• The amount of residential units to be developed
  within the Cities of Carlsbad and Encinitas had
  decreased had decreased from 3,792 to 3,394.
• Home sales prices had increased significantly
  causing many district home prices to be out of
  reach for families with elementary school
  children.
• The average ratio of Pupils per Dwelling Unit of
  all school attendance areas had slightly
  increased from 0.275 to 0.277.

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June 2004 Demographic Update
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June 2004 Demographic Update
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June 2004 Demographic Update
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New Information for this Report

• Enrollment is declining over most of Southern
  California.
• The districts sixth grade class that will
  graduate in 2004-05 is larger than the
  kindergarten class of 2004-05 thereby decreasing
  Pupils per Dwelling Unit ratios.
• The amount of residential units to be developed
  within the Cities of Carlsbad and Encinitas have
  decreased to 2,662.
• The average Pupils per Dwelling Unit has
  decreased to 0.198 with single family unit ratios
  at 0.278.
• Home sales prices have continued to be high.

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New Information for this Report2004-05 CBEDS
ENROLLMENT
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New Information for this Report
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New Information for this Report

• In what types of residential units do our
  resident students live.
• How many resident units are in each schools
  attendance area.

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New Information for this Report
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New Information for this Report
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New Information for this Report
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Analysis of Factors that Affect Enrollment

• Impact of economic factors Analyze
  affordability for first-time buyer families and
  families with elementary school children.
• Impact of births for families in existing homes
  Analyze female population between 18 and 44 years
• Impact of new residential development

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Analysis of female population between 18 and 44
years
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Analysis of female population between 18 and 44
years
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Analysis of female population between 18 and 44
years
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Analysis of female population between 18 and 44
years
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Analysis of female population between 18 and 44
years
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Analysis of female population between 18 and 44
years
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Analysis of female population between 18 and 44
years
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Analysis of female population between 18 and 44
years
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Analysis of female population between 18 and 44
years
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Impact of New Residential Development
Resident Students Only Excludes Interdistrict
Transfers
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Impact of New Residential Development Average
PPDU Forecast
Resident Students Only Excludes Interdistrict
Transfers
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Impact of New Residential Development
Resident Students Only Excludes Interdistrict
Transfers
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Annual Enrollment Forecast Average Pupils per
Dwelling Unit (PPD)
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Annual Enrollment ForecastSingle Family Detached
PPD
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Impact of Enrollment and Assessed Valuation on
Operating Revenue
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Impact of Enrollment and Assessed Valuation on
Operating Revenue
Assumes a 4 percent growth in AV, 2.7 percent
COLA in annual RL funding and 0.98 ADA
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Impact of Enrollment and Assessed Valuation on
Operating Revenue
Assumes a 4 percent growth in AV, 2.7 percent
COLA in annual RL funding and 0.98 ADA
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Impact of Enrollment and Assessed Valuation on
Operating Revenue
Assumes a 5 percent growth in AV, 2.7 percent
COLA in annual RL funding and 0.98 ADA
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Impact of Enrollment and Assessed Valuation on
Operating Revenue
Assumes a 5 percent growth in AV, 2.7 percent
COLA in annual RL funding and 0.98 ADA
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When could EUSD enrollment expect to grow?
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Conclusions

• Enrollment growth could be negative or flat until
  between 2012 and 2018.
• Assessed valuation will likely increase faster
  than the minimum 2 percent authorized under
  Proposition 13.
• Local revenue will likely exceed Revenue Limit
  revenue for resident ADA until 2015.
• Current facilities will likely have sufficient
  capacity through 2015.
• Our next school may not be needed until 2020.