Electoral College

1
Electoral College

• Why did we do this?
• Why do we still have it?
• What political interests are preserved via
  Electoral College
• So, you want to be an Elector?

2
Electoral College

• What is it
• Constitutional compromise
• Indirect election of President
• Electing a group of people to select Head of
  Government

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Electoral College

• Brief History
• 1789, no such thing as national elections
• Few people with national visibility
• No national media / communication
• Impossible to conduct national campaign
• No party system
• many potential candidates

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Electoral College

• History
• 1789, not clear what the role of the President
  would be
• An extension of Congress
• A Prime Minister
• No Big Deal, and they knew GW would be it
• Solution
• Each states legislature pick group of people to
  decide who to support

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Electoral College

• Founders solution
• Article 2.1
• each state shall appoint, in a Manner as the
  Legislature therof may direct, an Number of
  Electors, equal to the whole Number of Senators
  and Representatives
• Meet in their state, cast votes for two people,
  send votes to US Senate

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Electoral College

• Founders solution
• Person with most votes is President, person with
  2nd most votes is VP
• If a tie, Congress decides
• Didnt think that President and Vice President
  might be enemies

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Electoral College

• Early Problems
• States didnt know what to do
• How appoint electors?
• 1789
• New Yorks legislature couldnt agree
• States didnt know how to keep VP candidate
  (Adams) from having as many votes as Washington

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Electoral College

• History / Problems
• 1789 method of Elector selection
• 5 states used legislature to appoint (NY)
• MA appointed some by legislature, some by
  legislature from list of top 2 candidates in each
  Cong. district
• NH 5 electors selected by voters statewide
• VA 10 electors selected by voters in districts
• 1789, 1792 unanimous elections

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Electoral College

• 1789 Election
• G Washington (VA) 69
• J. Adams (MA) 34
• J. Jay (NY) 9
• R Harrison (MD) 6
• J Rutledge (SC) 6
• Other 14
• No voting 24

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Electoral College

• Problems
• 1789 - 1800
• 6 of 12 states selected by popular vote
• states often split EC delegation
• Selection in 1789, 1796, 1800 not winner-take-all
• What might this cause?

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Electoral College

• 1796 First real contest
• 4 well known candidates
• Adams (Fed), Pinckney (Fed), Jefferson (DR), Burr
  (DR)
• weak concept of running mate
• If top 2 tied, goes to Congress

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Electoral College

• 1796 Results (138 voters, 70 to win )
• Adams (F) 35,726 (53) 71 EC votes
• Jefferson (DR) 31,115 (47) 69 EC votes
• Pinckney (F) 59 EC votes
• Burr (DR) 30 EC votes
• S Adams (F Brewer, Patriot) 15 EC votes
• Hamilton wanted Pinckney, got some SC Electors to
  vote Jefferson / Pinkney

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Electoral College

• 1796
• Adams (F) / Pinckney (F) 45 - 49
• Jefferson (D) / Burr (D) 25 - 30
• Jefferson (D) / S. Adams (D) 14 - 15
• Adams (F) / Ellsworth (F) 11 - 0
• Jefferson (D) / Pinckney (F) 9 - 14
• Jefferson (D) / Clinton (D) 6 - 7
• Adams (F) / Jay (F) 5 - 0
• Adams (F) / Jefferson (D) 1 - 6

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Electoral College

• Coordination problem
• EC set up before parties emerged
• how insure Pres VP dont hate each other
• Adams (F) Jefferson (DR) would be like
• President Obama Vice President Palin

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Electoral College

• 1800
• an accidental tie
• Result
• Jefferson (DR) 41,330 (61) 73 EC
• Burr (DR) 73 EC
• Adams (F) 25,952 (39) 65 EC
• Pinckney (F) 64 EC
• Jay (F) 1 EC

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Electoral College

• 1800
• Jefferson was supposed to be Dems top choice,
  Burr 2
• Tie goes to House of Reps
• Lame Duck Federalists controlled House
• 16 state delegations, each w/ 1 vote
• need majority (9 votes)

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Electoral College

• 1800
• For one week, over 35 ballots, Jefferson got just
  8 votes
• Hamilton told Federalists Jefferson less worse
  than Burr
• Federalists switch on 36th Ballot, Jefferson wins

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Electoral College

• 1804
• Burr runs for Governor of NY
• Hamilton smears Burr
• Burr gets even
• Shoots Hamilton
• Hamilton dead
• Burr tries to steal TX from Spain
• Filibuster (look it up)
• Jefferson has him arrested for treason
• Retired to England friends w/ Jeremy Bentham

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Electoral College

• 1804 - Burrs Other Legacy
• 12th Amendment
• Electors cast one vote for President
• Separate vote for Vice President
• Still up to Congress to break ties

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Electoral College

• Developments since 1800s
• Popular voting in states more common post 1830
• National political parties
• Move toward winner take all rules in many
  states
• only 2 states left that divide up Electors (NE,
  ME)

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Electoral College

• Poor Record?
• 4 times popular vote winner different than
  Electoral College
• 1824, 1876, 1888, 2000
• twice (1824, 1876) Congress has had to select
  President
• 11 of 35 elections had no popular vote majority
  winner

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Electoral College

• Current Issues
• Deadlines
• Apportionment
• Faithless electors
• Election failures

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Electoral College

• How it works today
• need 270 Electors to win
• state delegation number of members of Congress
• Each candidate files a slate of trusted electors
  w/ Secretary of State
• Electors pledged to support their candidate

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Electoral College

• How it works today
• States decide how many electors each candidate
  gets based on popular vote
• nearly all states winner take all
• Federal Law Deadlines
• Electors meet at Capitol, December 13th
• Deadline for National Archives December 22nd
• Congress certifies election January 6th

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Electoral College

• Deadlines
• created massive problem in 2000
• Florida recount, lawsuits taking weeks
• December 13 deadline looming
• Major factor forcing US Supreme Court to
  intervene
• options push back inauguration or certification
  dates?

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Electoral College

• Apportionment
• Not by population
• Senate seats skew influence of smallest states
• One EC vote in WY 165,000 people
• One EC vote in ND 245,000 people
• One EC vote in NY, CA 613,000 people

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Electoral College

• Apportionment
• 20 smallest states have 28.7m people
• they get 84 EC votes (44 if by population)
• NY NJ 28m people
• they get 48 EC votes
• CA 34m people
• it gets 55 EC votes

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Electoral College

• Apportionment
• A structural Republican advantage?
• What are the politics of smallest states?
• Bush beat Gore by 13 in smallest states
• GW Bush won 61 of 84 small state electors in 2000

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Electoral College

• Apportionment
• if allocated by population, GOP candidates win 20
  fewer EC votes 2000 2004
• or, GOP candidates start w/ a built-in /-20 EC
  vote head start given political geography

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Electoral College, 2008

• WY GOP
• VT DEM
• AK GOP
• ND GOP
• SD GOP
• DE DEM
• MT GOP
• RI DEM
• HI DEM
• NH DEM

• ME DEM
• ID GOP
• NE GOP (1 D)
• WV GOP
• NM DEM
• NV DEM
• UT GOP
• AR GOP
• KS GOP
• MS GOP

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Electoral College

• Apportionment
• What are the reasons for over-representing small
  states in the EC
• Today, what purpose is served?

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Electoral College

• Faithless Electors
• might be the least of our worries
• rare, typically protest votes
• can this be regulated?

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Electoral College

• Election Failures
• What is the point of popular vote for a national
  office
• aggregate national opinion, produce outcome

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Electoral College

• Election Failure
• EC not good at producing a winner with majority
  popular support
• Manufactured majorities
• EC good at translating narrow popular vote wins
  into clear EC majorities
• Reagan 1980 Clintons 43 in 1992

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Electoral College

• Attempts at Reform
• Constitutional Amendments
• after 1948, award electors proportionate to
  popular vote in state
• 64 Y in Senate, died in House
• after 1968, Direct Election of President
• 338 votes in House, 51 in Senate

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Electoral College

• Recent Reform Proposals
• Colorado 2004
• PR allocation inside state
• why is this a dumb idea?
• California 2007
• winner-take-all by congressional district
• just as dumb?

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2000 Pop EC vote by CD by
PR Gore 48.4 266 (49 ) 251 257
Bush 47.9 270 (51 ) 287 258 Nader 2.7
20 others 1.0 3 1996
Clinton 49.2 379 (70 ) 345 262 Dole 40.7 159
(30 ) 193 220 Perot 8.4 49 others
1.7 7 1992 Clinton 43.0 370
(69) 324 232 Bush 37.5 168 (31
) 214 203 Perot 18.9 102 1980
Reagan 50.7 489 (91 ) 396 273 Carter 41.0
49 (9 ) 142 221 Anderson 6.6 35
others 1.9 9 BOLD MAJORITY
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1976 Pop EC vote by CD by PR
Carter 50.1 297 (55 ) 269 270 Ford 48.0 240
(45 ) 269 258 others 1.8 10 1968
Nixon 43.2 301 (56 ) 289 231 Humphr
42.7 191 (35 ) 192 225 Wallace 13.5 46 (8
) 57 79 others 0.6 2 1960
Kennedy 49.8 303 (56 ) 278 266
Nixon 49.5 219 (41) 245 266 unaffil. 0.7
15 (3 ) 14 5 BOLD MAJORITY
Be careful what you wish for.....some reforms
make things worse
39
Electoral College

• Current Reform Proposals
• Motivated by difficulty of amending US
  Constitution
• direct election obvious reform, but hardest to
  achive
• State by state only other option

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Electoral College

• Reform
• National Popular Vote Compact
• States by state agreement to award state EC votes
  to national pop. vote winner
• Did passed WA House, 22 state chambers have
  approved