Economic and Demographic Modeling

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Economic and Demographic Modeling

• Labor Force Participation Rates
• Is the Linkage Broken?

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Definitions
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Labor Force

• Persons currently employed or actively seeking
  work
• Employed unemployed
• Data usually from household surveys

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Wage and Salary Workers

• Individuals who work for a firm
• Data usually comes from unemployment insurance
  tax files.
• Approximately 90 of all workers

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Self Employed Worker

• Persons in the labor force and not unemployed who
  work for themselves
• Self employed are not subject to unemployment
  taxes
• Data usually come from household surveys
• Approximately 8 12 of workers
• Negative correlation with economic prosperity

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Labor Force Participation Rates

• Persons in the labor force / persons of labor
  force age
• Includes all workers (WS SE)
• Usually disaggregated by age, gender, and
  race/ethnicity
• Data usually derived from household surveys

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So, Whats the Problem

• Employment (jobs) are counted at the location of
  the firm
• Labor force is determined at the location of the
  household

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The Increase in Interregional Commuting
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San Diego County

• International
• In 2000, approximately 40,000 home to work
  commuters crossed the border daily from Northern
  Baja into San Diego County

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San Diego County

• Domestic
• In 1997, surveys indicated approximately 25 of
  the labor force in Southwest Riverside County
  commuted into San Diego County for jobs

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Possible Solutions

• Redefine Metropolitan Areas
• Counties may be to gross
• GIS technology could allow for finer geographic
  specificity

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Possible Solutions

• Periodic Surveys to Measure Interregional
  Commuting
• - Currently, one underway in Southwest
  Riverside County

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Possible Solutions

• Interregional Commuting Models
• - New sketch model developed at SANDAG
• - Gravity-based using travel times between
  housing and employment opportunities