Canadian Regional Population Growth and the Local Socio-Economic Conditions *

1
Canadian Regional Population Growth and the Local
Socio-Economic Conditions

• Paper presented at the special session of the AAG
  annual meeting, entitled
• "Exploring the New Spatial Patterns of Economic
  Diversification and Restructuring in Europe and
  Canada
• Boston,
• April 16, 2008
• By
• Alfred Hecht, PhD, Dr. (h.c.)
• Professor Emeritus and Associate Director,
• Viessmann Research Centre on Modern Europe at
  Laurier
• (rough draft not for quoting)
• the research was sponsored in part by the
  CEPRA/AUCC/CIDA project number 52,
• entitled The Economic, Geographical and
  Institutional Aspects of Economic Growth in
  Russian Regions

2
Abstract

• In this paper Canadian population growth rates,
  at the census division level, for the 1991-2001
  and the 2001-2006 periods and their differences,
  are examined. It is hypothesized that population
  growth in the various census divisions of Canada,
  is related significantly to the socio-economic
  conditions in them as measured in 2000. The
  question is raised if growth in the 1991-2001
  period relates more to the 2000 socio-economic
  conditions, then growth between 2001-2006. In
  other words does population growth relate to past
  socio-economic conditions or to future
  conditions. Two multiple regression models are
  run with each of the growth rates as dependent
  variables. For independent variables some 45
  socio-economic variable were collected from the
  2001 Canadian census as found in the community
  profile files of the 293 census divisions.  The
  regression equations accounted for a high
  proportion (R square in the high 70s) of the
  variance of the growth variables. Each had 10 and
  13 independent variables entering the equation
  respectively. It seems that jobs, income,
  housing, skills, education and language
  conditions do strongly affect population grows at
  the census division level in Canada.

3
Provinces and Territories of Canada
4
Development/Growth Theories1

• Growth Pole Theory
• Staple Growth Theory
• Comparative Advantage Theory
• Core Periphery Theory
• Myrdals Cumulative Causation Theory
• Hirschmans Backward and Forward Linkage Theory
• Heckscher-Ohlin Trade Theory
• Economic Base Multiplier Theory
• Kondratieff Wave Theory
• Export Base Theory
• Schumpeterian Growth Theory
• Productivity Growth Theory
• Dependency Theory
• Clark-Fischer Development Model
• Input Output Model
• Rostows Stage Growth Model
• Alternate Theory growth depends on the
  socio-economic conditions in the origin and
  destination region
• 1 No one reference will cover and discuss all
  of these. A start can be found in J. O. Wheelers
  et all book Economic Geography, Wiley, 1996.
  Readers will also find Peter Dicken and Peter E.
  Lloyds classical text Location in Space
  Theoretical Perspectives in Economic Geography,
  Harper, 1990 quite useful. Others of interest
  are Paul Krugman, Development, Geography, and
  Economic Theory, MIT Press, 1995, Klaus Grimm,
  Theorien der Unterentwicklung und
  Entwicklungstrategien, Westdeutscher Verlag,
  1997, James D. Cockcroft, Andre Gunther Frank and
  Dale L. Johnson, Dependence and Underdevelopment,
  Anchor Books, 1972, Paul Knox and John Agnew, The
  Geography of the World Economy , Edward Arnold,
  1989 and L. Needleman (ed) Regional Analysis ,
  Penguin, 1968.

5
What causes differential growth in the Canadian
census division population in the late 20th and
early 21st century?

• Hypothesis
• It is hypothesised that in Canada the following
  human related conditions, in a census division.
  are causing regions to attract or reject
  additional population
• Demographic,
• Religion,
• Language,
• Education,
• Mobility,
• Income,
• Labour,
• Work Situation and
• Housing
• i.e. Population growth, in a census division, is
  a function of the above socio-economic conditions
  i.

6
(No Transcript)
7
Table 1 Canadian Population Growth Variations, 1991-2001 and 2001-2006 at the Provincial/Territorial level Table 1 Canadian Population Growth Variations, 1991-2001 and 2001-2006 at the Provincial/Territorial level Table 1 Canadian Population Growth Variations, 1991-2001 and 2001-2006 at the Provincial/Territorial level Table 1 Canadian Population Growth Variations, 1991-2001 and 2001-2006 at the Provincial/Territorial level Table 1 Canadian Population Growth Variations, 1991-2001 and 2001-2006 at the Provincial/Territorial level Table 1 Canadian Population Growth Variations, 1991-2001 and 2001-2006 at the Provincial/Territorial level Table 1 Canadian Population Growth Variations, 1991-2001 and 2001-2006 at the Provincial/Territorial level
Provinces/Territories Pop. growth, 1991-2001 Deviation from CAD, Deviation from CAD Pop. growth, 2001-2006 Deviation from CAD Deviation from CAD
  in Absolute in Absolute
Newfoundland and Lab. -7 -11 -275.0 -1.5 -6.9 -127.8
Prince Edward Island 0.5 -3.5 -87.5 0.4 -5 -92.6
Nova Scotia -0.1 -4.1 -102.5 0.6 -4.8 -88.9
New Brunswick -1.2 -5.2 -130.0 0.1 -5.3 -98.1
Quebec 1.4 -2.6 -65.0 4.3 -1.1 -20.4
Ontario 6.1 2.1 52.5 6.6 1.2 22.2
Manitoba 0.5 -3.5 -87.5 2.6 -2.8 -51.9
Saskatchewan -1.1 -5.1 -127.5 -1.1 -6.5 -120.4
Alberta 10.3 6.3 157.5 10.6 5.2 96.3
British Columbia 4.9 0.9 22.5 5.3 -0.1 -1.9
Yukon Territory -6.8 -10.8 -270.0 5.9 0.5 9.3
Northwest Territories -5.8 -9.8 -245.0 11 5.6 103.7
Nunavut 8.1 4.1 102.5 10.2 4.8 88.9
Canada 4 -3.25 -81.15 5.4 -1.17 -21.65
Source Statistics Canada, Community Profiles,
http//www12.statcan.ca/english/census06/data/prof
iles/community/Index.cfm?LangE
8
Table 2 Population growth components (1991-2001) Table 2 Population growth components (1991-2001) Table 2 Population growth components (1991-2001) Table 2 Population growth components (1991-2001)
Period Pop. in 96/01 Births Deaths Immigration Emigration
1991-1996 29,611,000 6.54 3.46 3.78 1.14
1996-2001 31,021,000 5.50 3.50 3.92 1.21
Source Statistics Canada, Census of Population. http//www40.statcan.ca/l01/cst01/demo03.htm Source Statistics Canada, Census of Population. http//www40.statcan.ca/l01/cst01/demo03.htm Source Statistics Canada, Census of Population. http//www40.statcan.ca/l01/cst01/demo03.htm

9
Table 3 Absolute components of population growth, by province and territory July 1,2005/June 30,2006 Table 3 Absolute components of population growth, by province and territory July 1,2005/June 30,2006 Table 3 Absolute components of population growth, by province and territory July 1,2005/June 30,2006 Table 3 Absolute components of population growth, by province and territory July 1,2005/June 30,2006 Table 3 Absolute components of population growth, by province and territory July 1,2005/June 30,2006 Table 3 Absolute components of population growth, by province and territory July 1,2005/June 30,2006 Table 3 Absolute components of population growth, by province and territory July 1,2005/June 30,2006 Table 3 Absolute components of population growth, by province and territory July 1,2005/June 30,2006 Table 3 Absolute components of population growth, by province and territory July 1,2005/June 30,2006 Table 3 Absolute components of population growth, by province and territory July 1,2005/June 30,2006
Pop/06 Birth Death Imm Em Nte Re Nnpr Nipm
Canada 31,612,897 343517 234914 254359 38551 25,562 20505 4640  
Newfoundland 505,469 4368 4494 450 140 105 66 -62 -4368
Prince Edward Island 135,851 1393 1231 343 139 33 61 76 -127
Nova Scotia 913462 8617 8446 2199 784 375 386 608 -3930
New Brunswick 729997 6837 6585 1387 337 223 330 66 -3788
Quebec 7,546,131 78450 52900 41983 6139 4074 3343 1255 -8155
Ontario 12,160,282 133170 90945 133116 16643 10627 9046 -7443 -21391
Manitoba 1,148,401 13915 10226 8884 1370 560 795 814 -8635
Saskatchewan 968,157 12031 9250 2112 522 513 376 268 -9073
Alberta 3,290,350 41989 20310 19869 5311 2932 3026 4745 57105
British Columbia 4,113,487 40926 30028 43858 7116 6068 3062 4206 3779
Yukon 30,372 365 149 76 15 24 7 42 -194
Northwest Teritories 41,464 686 214 73 20 18 4 48 -1327
Nunavut 29474 770 136 9 15 10 3 17 104
,Note Imm Immigration, Em Emigration, Nte Net temporary emigration Re Returning emigrants, Nnpr Net non-permanent residents, Nipm Net inter-provincial migration Source Statistics Canada, Components of population growth, by province and territory http//www40.statcan.ca/l01/cst01/demo33c.htm ,Note Imm Immigration, Em Emigration, Nte Net temporary emigration Re Returning emigrants, Nnpr Net non-permanent residents, Nipm Net inter-provincial migration Source Statistics Canada, Components of population growth, by province and territory http//www40.statcan.ca/l01/cst01/demo33c.htm ,Note Imm Immigration, Em Emigration, Nte Net temporary emigration Re Returning emigrants, Nnpr Net non-permanent residents, Nipm Net inter-provincial migration Source Statistics Canada, Components of population growth, by province and territory http//www40.statcan.ca/l01/cst01/demo33c.htm ,Note Imm Immigration, Em Emigration, Nte Net temporary emigration Re Returning emigrants, Nnpr Net non-permanent residents, Nipm Net inter-provincial migration Source Statistics Canada, Components of population growth, by province and territory http//www40.statcan.ca/l01/cst01/demo33c.htm ,Note Imm Immigration, Em Emigration, Nte Net temporary emigration Re Returning emigrants, Nnpr Net non-permanent residents, Nipm Net inter-provincial migration Source Statistics Canada, Components of population growth, by province and territory http//www40.statcan.ca/l01/cst01/demo33c.htm ,Note Imm Immigration, Em Emigration, Nte Net temporary emigration Re Returning emigrants, Nnpr Net non-permanent residents, Nipm Net inter-provincial migration Source Statistics Canada, Components of population growth, by province and territory http//www40.statcan.ca/l01/cst01/demo33c.htm



10
Table 4 Percent population growth, by province and territory July 1,2005/June 30,2006 Table 4 Percent population growth, by province and territory July 1,2005/June 30,2006 Table 4 Percent population growth, by province and territory July 1,2005/June 30,2006 Table 4 Percent population growth, by province and territory July 1,2005/June 30,2006 Table 4 Percent population growth, by province and territory July 1,2005/June 30,2006 Table 4 Percent population growth, by province and territory July 1,2005/June 30,2006 Table 4 Percent population growth, by province and territory July 1,2005/June 30,2006 Table 4 Percent population growth, by province and territory July 1,2005/June 30,2006 Table 4 Percent population growth, by province and territory July 1,2005/June 30,2006 Table 4 Percent population growth, by province and territory July 1,2005/June 30,2006
Pop/06 Birth Death Imm Em Nte Re Nnpr Nipm
Canada 31,612,897 1.09 0.74 0.80 0.12 0.08 0.06 0.01  
Newfoundland and Lab. 505,469 0.86 0.89 0.09 0.03 0.02 0.01 -0.01 -0.86
Prince Edward Island 135,851 1.03 0.91 0.25 0.10 0.02 0.04 0.06 -0.09
Nova Scotia 913462 0.94 0.92 0.24 0.09 0.04 0.04 0.07 -0.43
New Brunswick 729997 0.94 0.90 0.19 0.05 0.03 0.05 0.01 -0.52
Quebec 7,546,131 1.04 0.70 0.56 0.08 0.05 0.04 0.02 -0.11
Ontario 12,160,282 1.10 0.75 1.09 0.14 0.09 0.07 -0.06 -0.18
Manitoba 1,148,401 1.21 0.89 0.77 0.12 0.05 0.07 0.07 -0.75
Saskatchewan 968,157 1.24 0.96 0.22 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.03 -0.94
Alberta 3,290,350 1.28 0.62 0.60 0.16 0.09 0.09 0.14 1.74
British Columbia 4,113,487 0.99 0.73 1.07 0.17 0.15 0.07 0.10 0.09
Yukon 30,372 1.20 0.49 0.25 0.05 0.08 0.02 0.14 -0.64
Northwest Teritories 41,464 1.65 0.52 0.18 0.05 0.04 0.01 0.12 -3.2
Nunavut 29474 2.61 0.46 0.03 0.05 0.03 0.01 0.06 0.35
Note Imm Immigration, Em Emigration, Nte Net temporary emigration, Note Imm Immigration, Em Emigration, Nte Net temporary emigration, Note Imm Immigration, Em Emigration, Nte Net temporary emigration, Note Imm Immigration, Em Emigration, Nte Net temporary emigration, Note Imm Immigration, Em Emigration, Nte Net temporary emigration, Note Imm Immigration, Em Emigration, Nte Net temporary emigration, Note Imm Immigration, Em Emigration, Nte Net temporary emigration,
Re Returning emigrants, Nnpr Net non-permanent residents, Nipm Net inter-provincial migration Re Returning emigrants, Nnpr Net non-permanent residents, Nipm Net inter-provincial migration Re Returning emigrants, Nnpr Net non-permanent residents, Nipm Net inter-provincial migration Re Returning emigrants, Nnpr Net non-permanent residents, Nipm Net inter-provincial migration Re Returning emigrants, Nnpr Net non-permanent residents, Nipm Net inter-provincial migration Re Returning emigrants, Nnpr Net non-permanent residents, Nipm Net inter-provincial migration Re Returning emigrants, Nnpr Net non-permanent residents, Nipm Net inter-provincial migration Re Returning emigrants, Nnpr Net non-permanent residents, Nipm Net inter-provincial migration Re Returning emigrants, Nnpr Net non-permanent residents, Nipm Net inter-provincial migration
Source Calculated from table 3 Source Calculated from table 3 Source Calculated from table 3
11
Dependent variable, measured at each of the 293
Canadian Census Divisions.

• Growth
• V4 Population increase 1991-2001 in
• V4b Population increase 2001-2006 in

12
Independent variables, measured at each of the
293 Census Division levels in 2001 or
2006.Demographic, Religion and Linguistic

• Demographic
• V3 2001 population
• v6 Median age in the community
• v14 of visible minorities in the
  community
• v41 of one-person households
• Religion
• v44 of population that are protestants
• v45 of people with no religious
  affiliation
• Linguistic
• V7 Language first learned and still
  understood, English
• V8 Language first learned and still
  understood, French
• V22 Language used most often at work -
  English and/or French (as )

13
Independent variables, measured at each of the
293 Census Division levels in 2001 or
2006.Education and Mobility

• Education
• V15 Population 20-24 years of age studying
  full time () 
• V16 Population 20-34 years old with a
  university certificate, diploma or degree
• V17 Population 35-44 years old with a
  university certificate, diploma or degree
• V18 Population 45-64 years old with a
  university certificate, diploma or degree 
• V5 University present 1-yes, 0-no
• Mobility
• V9 of population, one year or older, that
  did not move in the previous year 
• V10 of population, 1 year and older, that
  lived in a different province or country 1 year
  ago
• V11 of population 5 years or older that did
  not move in the last 5 years 
• v12 of population 5 years and older, that
  lived in a different province or country 5 years
  ago
• V13 1991 to 2001 Census Division in-migration
  as a of total population 

14
Independent variables, measured at each of the
293 Census Division levels in 2001 or
2006.Income

• Income
• V19 of population that have some earnings
  and are working full time
• V20 Average income of all workers 
• V21 Average income of full time workers only 
• V36 Median total income of persons 15 years of
  age and over 
• V37 Earned income as of total  
• V38 Income from government transfers as of
  total income  
• V39 Other money as of total income 
• V40 Median income () of couple families 

15
Independent variables, measured at each of the
293 Census Division levels in 2001 or
2006.Labour

• Labour
• V25 Labour force participation rate -  
• V26 Labour force employment rate -  
• V27 Labour force unemployment rate -  
• V28 Experienced labour force in manufacturing
  industries -
• V29 Experienced labour force in fire and real
  estate industries -
• V30 Experienced labour force in education and
  health industries -
• V31 Experienced labour force in business
  services industries -
• V32 Management occupations () 
• V33 Business, finance and administration
  occupations () 
• V34 Natural and applied sciences occupations
  () 
• V35 Social science, education, government
  service and religion Occupations ()

16
Independent variables, measured at each of the
293 Census Division levels in 2001or 2006 Work
situation, Housing

• Work situation
• V23 Worked at usual place ()
• V24 Car transportation to work in
• Housing
• V42 of owned dwellings  
• V43 Average value of owned dwelling ()

17
Table 5 Simple descriptive statistics for dependent variables v4 and v4b Table 5 Simple descriptive statistics for dependent variables v4 and v4b Table 5 Simple descriptive statistics for dependent variables v4 and v4b
variables V4 (1991-01) V4b(2001-06)
min -13.8 -15.7
max 3.7 11.3
Average -5.1 -2.2
standard deviation 5.68 6.23
Note v4 Population increase 1991-2001 in Note v4 Population increase 1991-2001 in
Note v4b Population increase 2001-2006 in Note v4b Population increase 2001-2006 in
18
Table 6 Regression Model Summary Statistics for v4 and v4b as Y's Table 6 Regression Model Summary Statistics for v4 and v4b as Y's Table 6 Regression Model Summary Statistics for v4 and v4b as Y's Table 6 Regression Model Summary Statistics for v4 and v4b as Y's Table 6 Regression Model Summary Statistics for v4 and v4b as Y's Table 6 Regression Model Summary Statistics for v4 and v4b as Y's
      Adjusted Std. Error    
Dependent Variable R R Square R Square of Estimate df F value
4b 0.88 0.78 0.77 2.75 280 88.21
   
(v4b) 0.86 0.74 0.73 3.24 277 61.6
Note v4 Population increase 1991-2001 in v4b Population increase 2001-2006 in Note v4 Population increase 1991-2001 in v4b Population increase 2001-2006 in Note v4 Population increase 1991-2001 in v4b Population increase 2001-2006 in Note v4 Population increase 1991-2001 in v4b Population increase 2001-2006 in Note v4 Population increase 1991-2001 in v4b Population increase 2001-2006 in Note v4 Population increase 1991-2001 in v4b Population increase 2001-2006 in Note v4 Population increase 1991-2001 in v4b Population increase 2001-2006 in
19
Table 6 Independent variables in v4 and v4b
regression equations      Variables in
equation Definition of
variables
v4 v4b

• V43 Average value of owned dwelling
  ()  
  x 
• V19 of population that have some
  earnings and are working full time
  x x
• log v6 Median age in the community
  
  x x
• V8 Language French mother tongue
  as of total population
  x 
• V21 Average income of full time
  workers only
  x x
• V11 of population 5 years or
  older that did not move in the last 5 years
  x x
• V9 of population, one year or
  older, that did not move in the previous year
  x 
• V42 of owned dwellings
  
  x x
• V37 Earned income as of total
  
  x x
• V16 Population 20-34 years of age
  with a university certificate, diploma or degree
  x 
• V31 Experienced labour force in
  business services industries -
  x
•  v33 Business, finance and
  administration occupations ()
  x
• V41 of one-person households
  
  x
• V7 Language English mother tongue
  as of total population
  x
• V39 Other money as of total income
  
  x
• V38 Income from government transfers
  as of total income 
  x
• V26 Labour force employment rate -
  
  x
• V35 Social science, education,
  government service and religion Occupations ()
  x
• V28 Experienced labour force in
  manufacturing industries -  
  x

20
Table 7a Multiple Regression Summary Statistics for v4 (dependent, 1991-2001 population growth) Table 7a Multiple Regression Summary Statistics for v4 (dependent, 1991-2001 population growth) Table 7a Multiple Regression Summary Statistics for v4 (dependent, 1991-2001 population growth) Table 7a Multiple Regression Summary Statistics for v4 (dependent, 1991-2001 population growth) Table 7a Multiple Regression Summary Statistics for v4 (dependent, 1991-2001 population growth) Table 7a Multiple Regression Summary Statistics for v4 (dependent, 1991-2001 population growth) Table 7a Multiple Regression Summary Statistics for v4 (dependent, 1991-2001 population growth) Table 7a Multiple Regression Summary Statistics for v4 (dependent, 1991-2001 population growth)
Un-standardized Un-standardized Standardized t t Sig.
  Coefficients Coefficients Coefficients Coefficients Coefficients  
Model B Std. Error Beta Beta  
v4 (Constant) 95.59 16.24     5.89 0
  v43 0.00007 0.000007 0.56 0.56 10.16 0
  v19 0.15 0.033 0.2 0.2 4.65 0
  logv6 -78.28 6.911 -0.72 -0.72 -11.33 0
  v8 0.06 0.005 0.44 0.44 10.7 0
  v21 -0.00024 0.00005 -0.26 -0.26 -4.67 0
  v11 -0.66 0.069 -0.99 -0.99 -9.48 0
  v9 0.73 0.139 0.45 0.45 5.26 0
  v42 0.28 0.029 0.52 0.52 9.7 0
  v37 -0.3 0.06 -0.36 -0.36 -5.1 0
  v16 0.18 0.043 0.18 0.18 4.22 0
  v31 -0.15 0.067 -0.1 -0.1 -2.32 0.02
Note v4 Population increase 1991-2001 in Note v4 Population increase 1991-2001 in Note v4 Population increase 1991-2001 in Note v4 Population increase 1991-2001 in
21
Table 7b Multiple Regression Summary Statistics for v4b (dependent, 2001-2006 population growth) ) Table 7b Multiple Regression Summary Statistics for v4b (dependent, 2001-2006 population growth) ) Table 7b Multiple Regression Summary Statistics for v4b (dependent, 2001-2006 population growth) ) Table 7b Multiple Regression Summary Statistics for v4b (dependent, 2001-2006 population growth) ) Table 7b Multiple Regression Summary Statistics for v4b (dependent, 2001-2006 population growth) ) Table 7b Multiple Regression Summary Statistics for v4b (dependent, 2001-2006 population growth) ) Table 7b Multiple Regression Summary Statistics for v4b (dependent, 2001-2006 population growth) ) Table 7b Multiple Regression Summary Statistics for v4b (dependent, 2001-2006 population growth) )
Un-standardized Un-standardized Standardized t t Sig.
  Coefficients Coefficients Coefficients Coefficients Coefficients  
Model   B Std. Error Beta Beta    
v4b (Constant) -27.27 9.83 -2.77 0.01
  v33 0.32 0.09 0.16 0.16 3.59 0
  v41 -0.42 0.07 -0.3 -0.3 -5.67 0
  v42 0.3 0.04 0.51 0.51 6.84 0
  v7 -0.09 0.008 -0.56 -0.56 -11.53 0
  v11 -0.64 0.05 -0.88 -0.88 -13.09 0
  v39 0.76 0.12 0.41 0.41 6.3 0
  v6 -0.48 0.15 -0.32 -0.32 -3.31 0
  v38 1.21 0.15 1.1 1.1 7.92 0
  v19 0.17 0.05 0.2 0.2 3.39 0
  v26 0.42 0.07 0.59 0.59 5.67 0
  v21 0.00034 0.00008 0.33 0.33 4.41 0
  v35 0.52 0.16 0.18 0.18 3.32 0
  v28 0.08 0.03 0.1 0.1 2.6 0.01
Note v4b Population increase 2001-2006 in Note v4b Population increase 2001-2006 in Note v4b Population increase 2001-2006 in Note v4b Population increase 2001-2006 in
22
Summary

• Holding other things constant, population growth
  relate significantly to the following variables
  for both periods
• of population that have some earnings and are
  working full time
  ive
• Median age in the community
  
  -ive
• Average income of full time workers only
  
  -ive
• of population 5 years or older that did not
  move in the last 5 years
  -ive
• of owned dwellings 
  
  ive
• Earned income as of total
  
  ive
•  
• Holding other things constant, population growth
  for the 1991-2001 period related significantly to
  the following socio-economic conditions
• Average value of owned dwelling ()
  
  ive
• Language French mother tongue as of total
  population
  ive
• of population, one year or older, that did not
  move in the previous year
  ive
• Population 20-34 years of age with a university
  certificate, diploma or degree ive
• Experienced labour force in business services
  industries, in
  -ive
• Holding other things constant, population growth
  for the 2001-06 period related significantly to
  the following socio-economic conditions
• of one-person households
  
  -ive
• Language English mother tongue as of total
  population
  -ive
• Other money as of total income
  
  ive

23
Conclusion

• The high regression value between the 2001
  socio-economic variables and population growth in
  the 1991-2001 and 2001-2006 periods, suggest a
  close causal relationship between them
• The fact that the R square value is slightly
  higher for the 1991-2001 increase, suggest that
  people tend to move to regions with perceived
  better future conditions
• The fewer explanatory variable for the 1991-2001
  growth period would also suggest that growth, due
  in part due to in and out-migration, may be based
  upon a simple future condition evaluation
• Most traditional growth theories may not be that
  important in broad regional growth differences
• The fact that, both past and future population
  growth, was strongly related to conditions in
  2001, suggest that Myrdals Cumulative Causation
  Theory may be the underlying explanation
• The fact that we are comparing 10 and 5 year
  population growth variables, may have affected
  the results
• Since this study did not remove different
  regional birth and death rates, also could have
  affected the results
• Maybe distance between census divisions could
  also have affected growth in any one
• Future regional growth studies should take into
  consideration regional attractiveness as an
  explanatory variable

24
(No Transcript)