Change of program

1
Change of program

• Implementation Plan. T. Satomura
• Current status of and contribution by NICAM. T.
  Matsuno T. Nasuno ( 20 min)
• Comments. J. Shukla
• Discussion
• Break

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Implementation Plan for the AMY modeling
activity- summary and missing items in draft-

• T. Satomura

3
AMY objectives related to model

• Coordinated efforts on modeling and prediction
  experiments are required.
• Target area (anywhere?) and period (when IOP?)
• Related AMY objectives are
• Determining the predictability of the Asian
  monsoon on intraseasonal and seasonal time
  scales.
• Determining the roles of land initialization in
  prediction of warm season precipitation
  especially over the land.
• Development of a hydro-meteorological prediction
  system (with lead time up to a season) in
  Southeast Asia.
• Better understanding of O-A-L-B interaction
  multi-time-scale interaction from diurnal to
  inter-annual

4
Modeling activity is grouped into

• AGCM/CGCM prediction of MISO
• Seasonal prediction/predictability
• High-resolution model and development of
  hydro-met prediction system
• Regional reanalysis with data group?

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AGCM/CGCM prediction of MISO

• We should focus on improved representation of
  convection in models, design diagnostic studies
  for the behavior of convection in models, with
  appropriate observations to support model
  improvement of convection.
• In order to determine predictability and
  predictive skills of the Asian monsoon on
  intraseasonal time scales, monitoring and
  assessment of real time medium/extended range
  (1-30 days) predictions of the MJO using CGCM
  will be continued (BMR).
• Short-term simulations up to seasonal change
  using a global cloud resolving model will be
  accomplished and help understanding roles of
  convection in monsoon ISO including MJO and
  tropical cyclogenesis.
• Taking advantage of metrics for diagnostic
  analysis.
• Encouraging an organized effort to pursue
  prediction of monsoon ISO. For boreal summer and
  winter monsoon onset, active/break phases and
  retreat, both AGCMs and coupled GCMs can be used.
  Both hindcast and real time prediction are
  encouraged.
• Efforts to encourage operation centers doing
  organized prediction experiments of MJO and MISO.

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Seasonal prediction/predictability

• Improve atmosphere-ocean initial conditions and
  develop coupled ocean-atmosphere-land data
  assimilation.
• Improve and develop new reanalysis datasets that
  use new satellite observations and Argo
  observations. (Global regional)
• Promote model and observation studies for
  understanding of predictability of monsoon.
  Particular importance is to examine impact of
  land-ocean initialization on monthly to seasonal
  prediction.
• Consider making an organized analysis of existing
  hindcast datasets through APCC/CliPAS project and
  the planned WCRP Task Force on Seasonal
  Prediction (TFSP) Climate-system Historical
  Forecast Project (CHFP), identifying a range of
  suitable metrics relating to the AAM for
  application to the outputs
• To assess seasonal prediction skills and identify
  common weakness of the current dynamic
  predictions of the Asian monsoon
• To determine the predictability of Indian Ocean
  Dipole which is an objective of the Indian Ocean
  Panel
• To study the role of the MJO in the onset of the
  (1997) El Niño, which is a joint effort between
  AAMP and Pacific Panel (PP).

7
continued

• To propose of a coordinated hindcast experiment
  within the Asian monsoon community on the impact
  of land surface initialization and
  land-atmosphere interaction on the prediction of
  Asian summer monsoon rainfall in the continental
  regions to determine the roles of land
  initialization in continental seasonal rainfall
  prediction.
• Using CGCMs, predictability of coupled
  variability in Indian Ocean (including IOD,
  oceanic ENSO teleconnections, and monsoon/ENSO
  interaction) and its sensitivity to ocean and
  land initial conditions will be determined.
  Impact of ocean assimilation system on prediction
  of ENSO, IOD, ENSO-monsoon interaction and
  monsoon onset will be also studied. The engaged
  models in this direction are POAMA, MRI-CGCM and
  so on. Regional modeling activity in the same
  direction will be also continued.

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High-resolution models and hydro-met pred. system

• Process studies on geographical variation of
  monsoon rainfall in time scales from diurnal to
  intraseasonal ranges by RM and HR-GCM.
• Mechanisms and processes for the onset and
  maintenance of the summer monsoon.
• Diurnal variations of summer convection.
• Short-term climate simulation of summer rainfall.
• Climate change scenarios for summer rainfall.
• Mechanisms and processes for the winter monsoon
  over South China, South Asia and Southeast Asia.
• Local climate and its connections to ENSO and
  Indian dipole mode.
• MJO and its interaction with shorter/smaller
  scales over maritime continent.
• By using very high resolution AGCMs
• Extreme event projection and evaluation and
  reduction of uncertainty in global warming
  projection
• Prediction and evaluatation of disaster
  environment
• Assessment climate-change impacts on flood risk
  and its reduction measures on global and local
  scales
• Using a global cloud-resolving model (ex. NICAM),
  short-term simulations up to season will be
  accomplished to understand hydro-meteorological
  systems.

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continued

• It is recommended that coordinated multi-high
  resolution model ensemble experiments be
  organized to investigate sub-seasonal to
  interannual factors that influence extreme
  events, such as tropical cyclones, severe
  droughts, devastating floods. The propose by S.
  Schubert at NASA forms a very useful starting
  point for developing high resolution modeling
  activity.
• Encourage application of regional models to
  sensitivity studies of parameterization schemes
  and to the monsoon prediction problem and monsoon
  climate change issues.
• Utilize regional climate models to generating
  local information from seasonal prediction and
  climate change projection products of global
  coarse-resolution models for use in impact
  assessment
• Study impacts of aerosols on radiation budget and
  regional climate
• Direct impacts of aerosols to the monsoon
• Smoke haze model for Asian monsoon region

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Summary of missing items in planning part

• Target areas (SEA? EA? SA?) and periods (summer?
  winter? 2008? hindcast?) and themes (diurnal to
  ISV?, all time scales?) for coordinated modeling
  activity
• Better understanding of O-A-L-B interaction
  multi-time-scale interaction from diurnal to
  inter-annual now it is difficult. (Possible
  among limited time-scales or in some regions or
  by piecewisey)
• Concrete plan to develop hydro-met prediction
  system
• Global and regional reanalysis group is not
  included (Will Shukla talk?)

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• Cooperation wit data analysis groups

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(No Transcript)
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Comments by Shukla

• Muti-time scale interaction difficult
• Need dynamical prediction system
• Need tuning for NICAM

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• Analysis of operational NWP (10d) products
• Onset predictability
• Predictability of disturbances
• Case study using NICAM
• Same for monthly seasonal products
• Predictability of MJO and ISO (operational, TFSP)
• HR 45d forecasts (NASA, APCC)

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• Coordinated seasonal monsoon hindcast experiments
  with coupled O-L-A-Chemistry models (MRI, IAP,
  Korea, CCSR can)
• Land, vegetation, snow initialization
• Ocean, sea-ice initialization
• Green house gas, aerosol initialization
• Coordinated decadal monsoon predictability
  experiments
• Relative importance of internal climate dynamics
  versus GHG forcing
• Analysis of AR4 and CMIP mode outputs