Hybrid Techniques

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MIS 650Project Seminar

• Hybrid Techniques
• Scenario Planning

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Definition

• Scenario Planning (SP) is an attempt to make
  concrete or more real what is hypothesized about
  a theory by telling a story of a typical case.
• Because SP combines aspects of case studies (with
  a fictional case) and evaluation and proof of
  concept (with verbal prototypes), it is a hybrid
  method.

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One Definition

• Scenario planning is a method for learning about
  the future by understanding the nature and impact
  of the most uncertain and important driving
  forces affecting our future. It is a group
  process which encourages knowledge exchange and
  development of mutual deeper understanding of
  central issues important to the future of your
  business. The goal is to craft a number of
  diverging stories by extrapolating uncertain and
  heavily influencing driving forces. The stories
  together with the work getting there has the dual
  purpose of increasing the knowledge of the
  business environment and widen both the
  receiver's and participant's perception of
  possible future events.

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One Definition, Contd

• The method is most widely used as a strategic
  management tool, but this and similar methods
  have been used for enabling other types of group
  discussion about a common future.
• http//www.well.com/mb/scenario/
• Martin Börjesson  ( mb_at_well.com ) consultant
  http//www.futuramb.se/)
• Scenario Planning is a method of predicting
  the future, but from a knowledge point of view
  it is an attempt to reduce a multi-factorial
  fuzzy image of the real world and its dynamics
  to a simplified picture, in other words, a model
  doing so enables critique aimed at improvement.

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Basic Method

• Immersion in the material understanding the
  existing state of theory
• Development of stories or typical average
  cases.
• Embellishment of stories so that they become
  vivid, with markers for players and forces that
  have names
• Discussion and critique

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Variants

• Crystal Ball Gazing SP is most commonly used to
  look at the future by deriving typical cases of
  the future.
• Strategic Planning Attempts to visualize the
  results of specific strategies
• Market Research Ideas for focus groups to react
  to.

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Scenario Planning is a Qualitative Method
Dept. of Information Systems Doctoral Program in
IS ND

• The data used are not numerical measures but
  words the goal is not to prove relationships but
  to motivate arguments that relationships exist or
  do not
• Relies on interpretation and interaction
• Does not depend on amassing large samples, using
  statistics, or computing or counting things, but
  assembling cases and provoking discussion

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Qualitative Methods Agenda Increasing the
Quality of the Discourse
Dept. of Information Systems Doctoral Program in
IS ND

• One of the goals is to increase our knowledge by
  increasing the quality of the discourse
• The reasoning is thus
• Better (more, more relevant, more useful)
  knowledge requires better theories. These
  theories arise from the crucible of discussion,
  debate and discourse. Improving the raw material
  of this discourse means improving the process of
  critiquing theories

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Increasing the Quality of the Discourse
Dept. of Information Systems Doctoral Program in
IS ND

Impressions, Thoughts, Felt Ideas
Debate, Discussion Dialectic Discourse
Expressed Ideas
Essential Criticism
Higher Quality Ideas
Critical Commentary
Experience
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Details

• http//www.wholeearthmag.com/ArticleBin/224.html
• Derive the scenario question (goal)
• Proximate environment (givens)
• Driving forces (theory)
• Importance, uncertainty (judgment)
• Composing the stories
• Reality Check (critique)
• Implications (running the model)