NOAANWS global and basin scale modeling and observations

1
NOAA/NWS global and basin scale modeling and
observations

• In 30 minutes ?

Hendrik L. Tolman Chief, Marine Modeling and An
alysis Branch NOAA / NWS / NCEP / EMC Hendrik.
Tolman_at_NOAA.gov
2
I will not talk about

• NWS service centers
• OPC, TPC, WFOs (Ming Ji)
• National Data Buoy Center
• Lots of data, mostly waves and met.
• Clearinghouse for data.
• Land Surface Modeling
• Runoff capabilities emerging

3
I will talk about

• Ocean modeling efforts at NOAA/NCEP
• Waves since 1956.
• Designated by WMO as part of the weather, hence
  responsibility of NWS.
  
• Oceans since mid 1990s.
• Support of OPC mission.
• Support of NCEP weather mission.
• 2004/2005 SAB on Ocean Modeling
• Main responsibility for global ocean modeling
  backbone in NOAA strong partnership with Navy
  and others in National Backbone.
  
• Partner / enable regional / local (NOS, RAs ..)
• Enable ecosystems modeling

4
Waves
1

• Wind wave modeling efforts at NCEP are
  consolidated on the WAVEWATCH III model.
  
• Replaced a patchwork of previous models.
• Developed as NCEP model, but moving towards a
  community modeling framework.
  
• Open-source approach.
• External contributors to present model
• USACE, SHOM, Alkyon, Metocean Eng., .
• Feedback from beta-testers and users (FNMOC,
  UKMO, NZxxx, ).
  

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Waves
2

• Present capability
• Global multi-grid or mosaic approach with a
  global model consisting of many grids.
  
• Hurricane wave models, to be transitioned to
  multi-grid global model approach.
  
• Great Lakes wave models running off NAM and NDFD
  winds (FY08, new model).
  
• Assimilation of altimeter and buoy data. To be
  transitioned to multi-grid approach.
  
• Global wave ensemble, transitioning to new model
  (FY08), joint effort with FNMOC.

6
Waves
3
Resolution in minutes of the 8 grids making up
the multi-grid model
Example of consistency between grids. Consecutive
plotting of all 8 grids as well as the Great
Lakes Wave model..
7
Waves
4

• Hurricane modeling provides requirement for NCEP
  to include shallow water physics.
  

including surf zone physics
without surf zone physics
8
Waves
5
old
cycle
Old ensemble setup, ensemble with cycling of
initial conditions and wind bias correction
(BC). Mean wave height (contours) and spread (sha
ding) 2008/03/28 t06z 48h forecast
cycle, BC
9
Waves
6

• Coastal wave modeling requirements have been
  formulated within the NWS.
  
• OSIP 06-093 addresses this.
• Based on pilot projects spearheaded by WFO
  Eureka.
  
• Responsibilities to transition to NCEP using
  localized WAVEWATCH III
  
• Spiral development local-central model.
• Local off-cycle capability.
• AWIPS-II or local workstation.
• Can tentatively replace typical WAVEWATCH SWAN
  approach.
  
• Curvilinear (NRL) and unstructured (SHOM) grids,
  surf zone physics available in test versions of
  model.

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Waves
7

• Building upon the present WAVEWATCH III model and
  suite of implemented models.
  
• Complete upgrade to new model
• Hurricane wave models
• Data assimilation.
• Coupling efforts have started.
• HWRF HYCOM - WAVEWATCH
• ESMF (NEMS) version being developed (NRL).
• NOPP project (NOAA-USACE-ONR) starting for
  improvement of physics in operational wave models
  (2009-2012).
  

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Waves
8

• Other issues.
• New products are needed
• Steepness based on wave fields.
• Freak wave guidance.
• Downscaling of forcing
• Accurate land-sea boundary transition.
• Validation
• We need more advanced (spectral) validation
  techniques (with USACE).
  
• Expand JCOMM international effort.
• Coupling at ocean and coastal scales.

12
Ocean
1

• Present capability at NCEP
• 1/12º resolution Real Time Ocean Forecast System
  for North Atlantic Ocean. (RTOFS-Atlantic, HYCOM
  based).
  
• Deterministic 5-6 day forecast.
• Assimilation of most available data with in-house
  assimilation schemes.
  
• Run once per day.
• MOM3-4 (GFDL) ocean model as part of the coupled
  Climate Forecast System (CFS).
  
• Supporting MOM4 based Global Ocean Data
  Assimilation System (GODAS).

13
Ocean
2
RTOFS-Atlantic domain, average T at 200m (C)
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Ocean
3

• Working with NOS
• Testing RTOFS-Atlantic HWRF-HYCOM to provide real
  time boundary and forcing data for storm surge
  and ports models.
  
• January 14-15 2008 workshop at NCEP.
• Goal 1 Direction for NCEP.
• Goal 2 Bigger Ecosystem Forecast System (EFS)
  focus within NOAA (Marie Colton, NOS lead).
  
• Broad community participation.

http//polar.ncep.noaa.gov/mmab/meetings/Workshop0
8/agenda_v4.3.html
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Ocean
4

• We need a global high-resolution ocean model.
• Boundary data for regional/basin models
• RTOFS-Atlantic, NOS, IOOS, etc. regional and
  coastal modeling.
  
• Eddy-resolving products (OPC, WFOs).
• Initialization of coupled atmosphere-ocean
  models.
  
• Support for hurricane forecasting with regional,
  relocatable coupled models.
  
• Enable global ecosystems modeling.
• In close cooperation with the Navy, we should be
  able to implement a 1/12 global HYCOM model in
  2009-2010, with full NCEP support in 2011-2012.

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Ocean
5

• RTOFS / HYCOM issues of interest for us
• Representation of tides and internal tides (OPC
  requirements).
  
• All mixed layer processes
• Product improvement, new products.
• Active coupling to atmosphere.
• From coupling
• Ice and ice thermodynamics.
• Waves forcing and mixing.
• Improved fluxes air and water (waves as
  interface).
  

17
Ocean
6

• Continued
• Assimilation / initialization
• Acquire and use all available data.
• Go towards a framework that is shared with the
  Navy, JCSDA, Academia (NOPP).
  
• Tentatively, define a standard ESMF interface for
  assimilation modules.
  
• Much work to be done
• SSH signal and assimilation.
• Vertical distribution data impact.
• Profile use and 3-D (4-D) assimilation.
• General OSE OSSE capability.

18
Ocean
7

• Partnerships are essential for NCEP to have an
  effective ocean modeling plan
  
• Community models/modeling to leverage scarce
  resources (including OSE-OSSE).
  
• CONOPS with clear roles for NCEP, NOS, IOOS and
  other partners.
  
• Close collaboration with Navy
• Accelerate NCEP global HYCOM capabilities
  (including initialization).
  
• NOAA can provide community interaction outside
  Navy mission.

19
Ocean
8

• Partnerships continued
• Close collaboration with JCSDA .
• Close collaboration with GFDL
• Ocean modeling on climate scales, further
  development of CFS.
  
• CFS has 5 to 7 year update time scale (outside
  time lines in the following slides).
  
• System will be used to assess impact of ocean
  coupling on weather.
  
• Global distributed high-resolution multi-model
  ocean ensemble.

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Big picture
1
Adapt this vision to ocean modeling.
Add ocean to each time scale.
HYCOM NEMS and/or MOM3/4 - CFS
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Big picture
2
Oceans HYCOM Wavewatch III
Climate CFS
Hurricane GFDL HWRF
Coupled
MOM3
1.7B Obs/Day
Satellites 99.9
Regional NAM WRF NMM
Dispersion ARL/HYSPLIT
Global Forecast System
Global Data Assimilation
Severe Weather
WRF NMM/ARW Workstation WRF
Short-Range Ensemble Forecast
North American Ensemble Forecast System
Air Quality
WRF ARW, NMM ETA, RSM
GFS, Canadian Global Model
NAM/CMAQ
Rapid Update for Aviation
NOAH Land Surface Model
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National Environmental Modeling System
(NEMS)(uses standard ESMF compliant software)
Application Driver
ESMF Superstructure (component definitions, mpi
communications, etc)
Analysis -------------- Ocean ------------- Wi
nd Waves -------------- LSM -------------- AQ
-------------- Ens. Gen. -------------- Ecosys
tem -------------- Etc
Atmospheric Model
Physics (1,2,3)
Coupler1 Coupler2 Coupler3 Coupler4 Coupler5
Coupler6
Coupler7 Etc.
Dynamics (1,2)
1-1 1-2 1-3 2-1 2-2 2-3
Multi-component ensemble Stochastic forcing
Bias Corrector Post processor Product Generator

Verification Resolution change
ESMF Utilities (clock, error handling, etc)
Earth System Modeling Framework (NCAR/CISL,
NASA/GMAO, Navy (NRL), NCEP/EMC), NOAA/GFDL
2, 3 etc NCEP supported thru NUOPC, NASA, NCAR
or NOAA institutional commitments
Components are Dynamics (spectral, FV, NMM, FIM,
ARW, FISL, COAMPS)/Physics (GFS, NRL, NCAR,
GMAO, ESRL)