Reconciling

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Reconciling Biodiversity Conservation,
Protected Areas Agricultural Suitability in
Mexico K. Brandon, L. J. Gorenflo, A. Rodrigues,
R. Waller
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WHY BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION?
Intact Faunal Assemblages Maintain Ecological
Evolutionary Processes Ecosystem Services Moral
Reasons
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HOTSPOTS
South-east China mountains
Taiwan
Melanesia
Horn of Africa
Albertine Rift
Ethiopian highlands
10 new hotspots
Queensland wet tropics
Maputaland-Pondoland
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• HOTSPOTS
• 25 Areas Critical for Conservation
• 44 of all plants
• 35 of all vertebrates
• 80 of the most endangered species
• 1.4 of the land area of the planet

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WHY PROTECTED AREAS?
Greenlining?
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Are Parks taking Good Agricultural Land Out of
Production in Hotspots and Wilderness Areas?
At Global Scales NO

• Three levels of analysis
• Hotspots Wilderness Areas
• Protected areas in Hotspots Wilderness Areas
• Buffers (10 km) around Hotspots Wilderness
  Areas

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• GLOBAL AGRO ECOLOGICAL
• ZONES (GAEZ) Methodology
• Food and Agriculture Organization International
  Institute of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
• Key ag. suitability variables, considered
  globally
• Climate (Average rainfall number of frost-free
  days)
• Soil type
• Terrain (Elevation Topography)
• Crop modeling environmental matching
• Land characteristics
• Crop-specific yields under particular management
  conditions and inputs
• Identify crop-specific limitations
• Estimate crop suitability productivity for
  particular soil, terrain, and climatic regimes

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Intermediate Input Intermediate Input
Intermediate Input
Cereals Rain-fed -management Scenario
High Input
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• The 10 Rule 1982 WPC
• All countries should set aside 10 of their
  lands. The distribution of biodiversity is
  uneven. Political goal- not science based.
• Costa Rica 27 isnt enough
• 10 for Indonesia or the Philippines?
• Does the U.K. need 10?

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Megadiversity of Species for Global Leaders
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Anas strepera, Gadwall
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Lateralus jamaicensis, Black Rail
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Ictinia mississippiensis, Mississipi Kite
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Richness of Amphibians, Breeding Birds Mammals
in Mexico
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Protected Areas in Mexico
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Richness of Amphibians, Breeding Birds Mammals
in Mexico Outside Parks
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Optimization Modeling
Minimize (I)
Subject to i 1, 2, , m (II) xj ?
0,1 j 1, 2, , n (III) n is the number of
sites, m is the number of species, aij is 1 if
species i is present in site j and 0 otherwise,
and variable xj is 1 if and only if site j is
selected. Objective function (I) the number of
sites selected. Inequalities (II)each of m
species must be present at least once.
Integrality restrictions (III) each site is
indivisible.
These areas 900KM2 Reserve Design 10KM2 rule
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Minimum Cells to Cover Conservation Gaps
Richness (Amphibians, Breeding Birds, Mammals)
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GAP Cells Existing Protected Areas
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Human Footprint
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GAP Cells Areas outside the Human Footprint
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GAP Cells 10 Wildest Areas outside the Human
Footprint
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Gap Cells Population
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Demographic how many people are in these areas?
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Highest Possible Ag. Suitability Gap Cells
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Gap Cells Land Cover/Land Use (2000)
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Gap Cells Compatible Land Cover/Land Use
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Area with Land Uses/Land Cover Compatible with
Biodiversity
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Biological Corridors for the Selva Maya
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Summary of Findings Reconciling Biodiversity
Conservation, Protected Areas Agricultural
Suitability

• Gap Analysis is vital to stop species extinction
• Many more PAs are needed
• Can be done to minimize use
• of high suitability lands in many cases
• Ecoagriculture is a vital component
• This modeling prioritizes WHERE to start
• Modeling can help inform how where development
  efforts infrastructure should go to minimize
  impacts on biodiversity, intensify agriculture,
  and reduce poverty