Improving Tsunami Warning on Canada

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Improving Tsunami Warning on Canadas West
CoastIncorporating lessons from December 26,
2004

• Peter Anderson
• School of Communication
• Simon Fraser University

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Causes of Tsunamis

• Large wave events generated by large surface
  impacts or sudden ocean floor movements that
  displace large volumes of water.
• Usually associated with earthquakes
• Can also be triggered by
• submarine or terrestrial landslides
• submarine and terrestrial volcanic eruptions
  (e.g., Krakatoa 1883)
• explosions (e.g., Halifax Harbour 1917)
• bolide impacts (e.g. asteroid, meteor, comet)

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SourceClague, 2001
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Source http//www.pgc.nrcan.gc.ca/seismo/mstrec/l
ocal/28Feb01-info.htm
http//www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2005/images/ts
unami-dart-system.jpg
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Applying Lessons from December 26, 2005Tsunami
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Source http//www.pmel.noaa.gov/tsunami/indo_1204
.html
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Sri Lanka
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714 AM PTWS Issues Earthquake Bulletin 8.0 mag.
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804 AM PTWS Issues Earthquake Bulletin update
8.5 mag.
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10,500 DEAD
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23,000 DEAD
855 AM Tsunami hits Trinco and Batticaloa
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31,000 DEAD
930AM-1255PM Tsunami Hits Galle, Kalutara and
more
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Sri Lanka Tsunami Impacts(February 24, 2005)
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Sri Lanka Tsunami Impacts(February 24, 2005)
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Lessons
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Warning must be viewed as part of an integrated
system and not simply a technology
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Warning System Stages

• Detection and notification
• Emergency management system
• Local dissemination

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Warning Sub-system Components

• Hazard identification, risk assessment and
  vulnerability analysis
• Detection and monitoring
• Deciding to issue a warning
• Framing the warning
• Targeting and disseminating the warning
• Disseminating the warning
• Receiving and understanding the warning
• Validating the warning
• Taking appropriate action
• Feedback to assess impacts

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Any system is only as effective as its weakest
link
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Contributors to Warning System Failures

• Failure of forecasting/detection
• Ignorance of prevailing conditions of
  vulnerability
• Failure of warning system infrastructure
• Failure to communicate the threat accurately or
  in sufficient time
• Failure to understand the warning
• Constrained capacity of the government or
  community to respond

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Tsunami Risk and Warning in British Columbia
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Source Clague 2001
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Courtesy John Clague, SFU
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Tsunami Impacts from 1964 9.2 Alaskan Earthquake
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Courtesy British Columbia Provincial Emergency
Program
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Courtesy British Columbia Provincial Emergency
Program
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Courtesy British Columbia Provincial Emergency
Program
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B.C. Tsunami Warning System Components
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Source NOAA http//wcatwc.arh.noaa.gov/web_tsus/1
7371016/traveltime.gif
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Stage 2 Components
PSEPC
Source British Columbia Tsunami Warning and
Alerting Plan
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Source British Columbia Tsunami Warning and
Alerting Plan
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Special Challenges for British Columbia
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Current West Coast Tsunami Warning System

• Most effective in the case of far-field or
  telegenic tsunamis
• Not designed for locally generated tsunamis

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Coastal Socio-economic Considerations
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(Source Clague et al., 1999)
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Canadian West CoastTsunami Warning System
Limitations

• Coverage community
• Coverage - terrain
• Coverage transient populations
• Means of communication and warning
• Community and industry preparedness
• Public education and awareness

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Observations About Infrastructure

• No single technology can facilitate the effective
  delivery of warnings.
• One method will not reach all and a strategy is
  needed to integrate and support multiple methods
  and channels to disseminate messages.
• By adopting common standards for information
  formatting and telecommunications interfaces
  warning systems should be flexible enough to
  adapt to different information delivery systems.

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Observations about Warning

• The tsunami warning phase contains a limited
  window of opportunity to capture public attention
  and encourage appropriate action.
• Appropriate response to warnings is most likely
  to occur when people have been educated about the
  hazard well before the warning.

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Effective Warning Prerequisites

• Planning
• Education
• Testing and evaluation

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Selected Recommendationsfrom SFU Study

• Tsunami risk is site specific.
• Inundation and risk mapping activities should be
  expanded to include all populated and important
  economic coastal areas at risk in B.C.
• A communications infrastructure audit needs to be
  undertaken to identify local capabilities and
  specific gaps in coverage.

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Selected Recommendationsfrom SFU Study

• Local authorities need to work together to
  develop a common public educational outreach
  program to ensure that local residents and
  businesses understand the procedures associated
  with tsunami watch and warning bulletins.
• Continued support from federal and provincial
  agencies and expanded access to tsunami
  information.

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Post Assessment Report Developments

• Tsunami Integrated Preparedness Project
• Joint federal/provincial initiative 1.85 M.
• to identify risks, develop enhanced response
  plans, upgrade communications and warning
  systems, and support public education programs.

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Additional Information Sources

• BC PEP Tsunami Warning and Alerting Plan
  http//www.pep.bc.ca/hazard_plans/tsunami2001/Tsun
  ami_Warning_and_Alerting_Plan-2001.pdf
• Clague, John. Clague, J.J. (2001) Tsunamis, in A
  Synthesis of Geological Hazards in Canada. G.R.
  Brooks (editor) Geological Survey of Canada,
  Bulletin 548, p.27-42.
• Clague, John J., Munro, Adam, and Murty, Tad.
  (2003) Tsunami Hazard and Risk in Canada, Natural
  Hazards, 28 433-461
• SFU/PSEPC Report An Assessment of the B.C.
  Tsunami Warning System and Related Risk Reduction
  Practices
• http//www.ocipep.gc.ca/research/resactivites/CI/
  2003-D001_e.asp
• Tsunami Integrated Preparedness Project
  http//www.pep.bc.ca