Peak Oil, Emissions Scenarios and Climate Change

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Peak Oil, Emissions Scenarios and Climate Change

• Robert Brecha
• Dept. of Physics
• Sustainability, Energy and the Environment
  Program
• Bro. Leonard Mann Chair in the Natural Sciences
• University of Dayton
• Dayton, OH 45469-2314

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Outline

• Energy present and future (?)
• Fossil-fuel limits and peak oil
• Limits on natural gas and coal
• Carbon emissions scenarios under limits
• Climate change results
• Economics of climate change mitigation

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World Energy Consumption
Biofuels 0.2
Geothermal 0.2
Solar pv 0.04
http//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FileWorld_energy_usa
ge_width_chart.svg
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Energy flows in the U.S.
See also h t t p / / w w w. a p s . o r g / e
n e r g y e f f i c i e n c y r e p o r t /
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Energy Information Administration (2005)
Available at www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html
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Energy Information Administration (2009)
Available at www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html
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Oil Production and Price
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http//www.worldenergyoutlook.org/
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Logistic equation and function
Q(t) cumulative production b initial rate of
increase Q8 ultimate recoverable resource
a curve shape factor
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Logistic equation
World
US 48
BP Reserves
Actual Production
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Oil production scenarios
USGS 50 probability 3000 Gb
Actual production
BP Reserves data 2000 Gb
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Time delay example
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Marginal and average costs
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Natural Gas and Coal Scenarios
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Model scenario indicators
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A1 SRES scenario comparison
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B1 SRES scenario comparison
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Total CO2 emissions
b)
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CO2 Concentration
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Temperature Change
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Sea-level rise
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Cumulative emissions
Allen et al., Vol 45830 April 2009
doi10.1038/nature08019
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Burning embers
Update in Smith et al., www.pnas.org/cgi/doi10.10
73/pnas.0812355106
IPCC AR4, WG II (2007) available at
http//www.ipcc.ch
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Carbon Intensity (World)
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Energy Efficiency Supply Curve
A cost curve for greenhouse gas reduction, P.-A.
Enkvist, T. Nauclér and J. Rosander, The McKinsey
Quarterly, McKinsey Company, 2007.
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Conclusion

• Energy challenges will remain with us
• Climate change must be addressed
• Long-term thinking is needed
• Economics favors switches to renewable energy
  sources, sooner rather than later
• Doing so helps solve many problems simultaneously

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Energy Information Administration (2009)