Climate Change and Fossil Fuels

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Climate Change and Fossil Fuels

• Will running out of oil help mitigate global
  warming?

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Outline

• Climate change signals
• Climate models and projections
• Peak oil (and natural gas and coal)
• Will fossil fuel limits have an effect?
• Conclusion

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The Past
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Mean global temperature single number version
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Mean global temperature - distribution
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Energy Balance
Earths Energy Imbalance Confirmation and
Implications James Hansen, et al. Science 3 June
2005 308 1431-1435 Current imbalance of
0.850.15 W/m2
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Total anthropogenic carbon emissions
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CO2 concentration
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Methane concentrations
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Temperature change - natural or anthropogenic?
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The Future
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Model scenario indicators
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Climate Forcings
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Model projections
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Energy and fossil fuels
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World energy use
World 84 million barrels/day US 21 million
barrels/day
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US oil production
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US production peak
Approximately 30 out of 40 largest producers have
crossed a peak
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Peak models world production
USGS (BP 50)
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Discovery vs. consumption
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Discovery and production
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US Production and Logistic Model
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Modified Logistic
Time-dependent
Qtotal (Gb)
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World Reserves and R/P
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Production and R/P Ratio
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Production and R/P Ratio
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EIA Predictions
The U.S. DOE/EIA's International Energy Outlook
2001 (IEO2001), stated the following concerning
future U.K. oil production "The United Kingdom
is expected to produce about 3.1 million
barrels/day by the middle of this decade
(2005), followed by a decline to 2.7 MMb/d by
2020. 1999 2.909 MMbd 2000 2.667 2001
2.476 2002 2.463 2003 2.257 MMbd 2004
2.028 2005 1.808 MMbd
In the IEO2003, the U.S. DOE/EIA stated the
following concerning Norwegian and North Sea oil
production "The decline in North Sea production
is slowed as a result of substantial improvement
in field recovery rates. Production from Norway,
Western Europe's largest producer, is expected
to peak at about 3.4 million barrels per day in
2004 and then gradually decline to about 2.5
million barrels per day by the end of the
forecast period (2025) with the maturing of some
of its larger and older fields. 2001 3.4 MMbd
2002 3333 2003 3264 2004 3188 2005
2969
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Most Recent Predictions (June 2006)
In the IEO2006 reference case, (p)roduction
from Norway is expected to peak at about 3.6
MMbd in 2006 and then decline gradually to about
2.5 MMbd in 2030 ... The UK sector is expected
to produce about 2.2 MMbd in 2010, followed by a
decline to 1.4 MMbd in 2030.
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Natural Gas
National Petroleum Council (1998) US
Prod. Import from Canada 1998 550 Bcm 90
Bcm 2010 725 Bcm 120 Bcm 2015 780 Bcm

• Now the numbers are more like
• 1998 550 Bcm
• 550 Bcm
• 540 Bcm
• 526 Bcm

And Canada peaked in 2002 at 188 Bcm and
expects a decline of 2.5 per year
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Natural Gas in the US
(per day)
EIA Statistical Review of World Energy data
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U.S. Coal Production
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U.S. Coal Production
Lower quality coal
Energy Information Administration Annual Energy
Review 2005
http//www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/coal.html
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Tar Sands

• Alberta, Canada
• Effectively a mining operation
• Current production of 106 bbl/day of synthetic
• crude oil
• Estimate 3 MMb/d in 10 years, 5 MMb/d in 25
  years
• Needs large amounts of NG and water, plus
  hazardous waste disposal
• EROEI is perhaps 21 81

The plan now is to expand capacity from the
present 155,000 barrels a day to more than
500,000 by 2015. This will require many billions
of dollars of further investment in mining and
upgrading facilities. Malcolm Brinded Executive
Director Exploration Production, Royal Dutch
Shell plc http//www.shell.com/static/media-en/dow
nloads/speeches/mb_oxford_energy_seminar.pdf
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Oil Shale

• Western U.S.
• Possibly 800 billion barrels !!
• A mined product
• Techniques proven in principle, but not at large
  scale
• Only profitable with oil gt75/bbl
• High growth, optimum scenario 106 bbl/d in 2025
  or later.
• EROEI is estimated at 21 41
• Rand Corp. report for US DOE, Natl. Energy Tech.
  Lab.

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Ethanol from Corn
Yield for ethanol from corn is 70 GJ/ha (_at_9000
kgcorn/ha)
Automobile light truck transportation uses
1.71010 GJ/a
Quick calculation we would need 2.4108 ha of
land
Currently we have in the US 1.2108 ha of
cropland total
But the key point missing is the energy input.
Ethanol from industrial-scale corn farming is
barely an energy break-even. Energy return on
Energy invested (EROEI) ratio is 1. GHG
emissions are only slightly less than for
conventional gasoline.
D.Pimentel and T. Patzek, Natural Resources
Research 14, 65-76 (2005) Shapouri - USDA The
Energy Balance of Corn Ethanol An Update Ag.
Econ. Report 813 Farrell et al., Science 311,
506-508 (2006)
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Fossil fuels and CO2
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SRES - Oil
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SRES - Oil
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SRES - NG
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Oil and CO2
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Natural Gas and CO2
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Coal and CO2
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Total CO2 Middle Scenarios
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Model output CO2 concentration
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Model output - Temperature
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Peak fossil fuel scenario
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Stop burning fossil fuels?
The Climate Change Commitment T. M. L. Wigley
18 MARCH 2005 VOL 307 SCIENCE
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Keep burning at same rate?
The Climate Change Commitment T. M. L. Wigley
18 MARCH 2005 VOL 307 SCIENCE
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Will climate change mitigation be costly?

• Some coupled economic-climate models show the
  costs to be minimal
• Stern report not acting now will be extremely
  costly
• U.S. businesses that have taken action to reduce
  greenhouse gas emissions have found positive
  bottom-line results