Danish Institute for International Studies

1
Danish Institute for International Studies

• Nicolas Teodors Veicherts
• Major
• DIIS 2004 2006
• Afghanistan 2006 2007

2
My basic arguments

• The overall end-state of interventions today is
  to create lasting stability in a country or
  region. The mean is democracy.
• The support from the local population is the
  centre of gravity of interventions today.
• The wars of the West are easily won.
• ? War planning prior to an intervention should be
  based on post-conflict planning and not the other
  way around.
• Post-conflict planning should be led by civilians
  and a civilian effort from the beginning of the
  post-conflict phase must be guaranteed.
• The military main effort in the post-conflict
  phase must be guided by civilian objectives.

3
My agenda

• Some definitions of my own
• Some characteristics of today's interventions
• so what does concerted planning and action (CPA)
  require?
• Conclusion 1 2

4
A SKETCH OF AN INTERVENTION
PLANNING
H
H
GENOPBYGNING UDVIKLING
Lasting stability gt Democracy
CIVILIAN (DEVELOPMENT) EFFORT
MILITARY EFFORT
H
CONFLICT
POST CONFLICT
Months
5 12 years
5
DEVELOPMENT TASKS Infrastructure
projects Water/sanitation, education, training,
governance, industry, elections.
3-block-warfare
MILITARY TASKS Policing, destroying
spoilers (ruins, wounded, homeless, polution)
HUMANITARIAN TASKS (camps, food, water, medical
assistance, coordination, communikation)
6
What do we know about the interventions of today
(1/3)

• The local population is the centre of gravity.
• People do not distinguish between
• negative peace (i.e. security) and positive
• peace (i.e. infrastructure, jobs, justice
  etc.).
• This calls for an early and guaranteed
• civilian effort.
• The civilian effort ? the neglect of the
• former regime.

7
What do we know about the interventions of today
(2/3)

• The West is guaranteed to win the initial
• (traditional) military battle.
• Collateral damages are limited.
• The importance of war effort is reduced.
• The post-conflict plan becomes more
• important than the war plan.

8
What do we know about the interventions of today
(3/3)

• The West is guaranteed to win the initial
  (traditional)
• military battle.

• The local population is the centre of gravity.
• ? This calls for an early civilian effort.

• The opponents main target is the centre of
• gravity ? stop any progress.
• The opponents do not distinguish
• humanitarian efforts from other civilian
• efforts.
• ?The civilian effort must be protected.

9
so what does concerted planning and action
require? (1/2)

• Prior to an intervention
• Be sure to have a post-conflict plan that
  focuses on
• what the people need and want.
• Nationally (Iraq), regionally (Basra), locally
  (DK AOR).
• Plan x Organisation Timetable.
• Since the post-conflict plan is about developing
  a
• country it should be done by civilian
  experts supported
• by the military.
• The war plan should create the exact
  preconditions
• mentioned in the post-conflict plan and
  not just the
• best possible.

10
so what does concerted planning and action
require? (2/2)

• In the post-conflict phase
• Continuously to improve the livelihood of the
• people calls for a continued civilian effort.
• ?The military should focus on securing the
  civilian effort
• (man-to-man, not a zone defence).
• ?Creating and up-holding security is still an
  important task.

11
Conclusion (1)

• ? Beside an overall coalition post-conflict and
  development plan all contributing nation should
  develop a post-conflict plan of their own that
  both the military and civilian effort in their
  AOR should follow.
• The military cannot have their own security as
  priority number one. It has to be the security -
  in its broadest sense - of the local population.
• Military and civilian leaders should be measured
  on their ability to fulfil the conditions set-up
  in the post-conflict plan.
• Since the civilian effort is key Western
  governments must have a vacuum-filling capacity
  for crises where the security situation prevents
  IOs, NGOs and others from operating.
• ?For-profit companies or willing NGOs
  (state-sponsored) - could provide such capacities.

12
C2 What about the necessary independent, neutral
and impartial humanitarian aid?

• ?Make a clear distinction between core
  humanitarian work (food, water, medicine,
  temporary housing) and other civilian efforts
  (schools, housing, demining)
• They might also be humanitarian but accept
  that an enemy will see the NGOs as Western
  end-state enablers.
• Allow only the Red Cross and its affiliates to
  use WHITE colours.
• Create a global value around the WHITE efforts
  and be careful with the definition of these.