IDENTITY AND EMPIRE: RUSSIAN HISTORICAL PATTERNS

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IDENTITY AND EMPIRE RUSSIAN HISTORICAL PATTERNS

• by
• Pal TAMAS IS HAS, Budapest

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THE EASTERN BORDERS OF EUROPE

• Antique interpretations- Tanais/Don
• 16.-17.c. -Don, Volga,
  Kama, Ob pieces
• 1720cca. Tatichev/Stalenberg- Urals
• Danzig-Triest line

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EURASIA, 116 C.E.
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EURASIA, 8TH CENTURY
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EURASIA, 1288
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BASIC GEOPOLITICAL UNITS OF RUSSIA

• COMPOSITE BLOCKS
• 1.EURO-RUSSIA
• 2.FAR-EASTERN RUSSIA
• 3.URALO-SIBIR
• 1-2. N-S 3.W-E.
• EXTERNAL GATES
• a.Nord-East- Murmansk-Kaliningrad
• b.South-West- Black Sea
• c.South-East- Pacific coast
• d.Nord-East-chukotka, Kamchatka, Behring tr.

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RUSSIA, THE CONTINENTAL ISLAND

• The Baltic-Black sea continental trait and the
  limitrof V.Cimburskij
• After 1991 turninng back to Asia/Europe
  imperialistic view no mans land?
• The real center? Ekaterinburg- Orenburg-Kemerovo
• The II. Velikorossija M.Iljin

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GEOPOLITICAL FRAMES

• Where does Europe stop?
• What is the scope of the Euro-Atlantic community?
• What is the present political meaning of
  Euroasia, if any?
• How relevant is the term Post-Soviet space at
  all?

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EASTERN INTERPRETATIONS OF EXPANSION/INTEGRATION

• The Collecting of Lands Model
• The Moving of Borders Colonization Model
• The Strategic Border Model
• The Restoration Model
• Le Monde Sans Frontiérs Model

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Russia in the European Politics

• Bipolarity of Europe- division on the Rhein
• France/the Holy Empire
• 18.c. weakening Austria. From 1726 Russia in the
  European big politics
• AU-SP-RU versus ENG-FR-PRUSS.
• 1945- elimination of the Austrian-German eastern
  core, Russia is the now the Eastern core- pushed
  out of the system, th west is unipolar from that
  time

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Russia between Europa and Asia
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DISCOURSES ON EAST-WEST BORDERS
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THE NEW GAME

• VULNERABILITY OF THE NEW ELITES AND STATES AS A
  CENTRAL PROBLEM
• Primary factors
• External Western geopolitical interests
• Programs of militant nation building and
  consolidation
• Short term Russian geopolitical interests
• Major socio-economic tensions in the new states

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THE MAJOR FRONTLINE

• a.THE NEW MIDEAST THE CAUCASUS as part of the
  region
• b. Central Asia- as a borderland between China
  and the Moslim world
• c. Vulnerability of energy supply lines for
  Europe
• Different Russian-Western interests in the 3
  regions. In c stong co-operation is needed, but
  in A. and b. not.

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THE GEOPOLITICAL MATRIX
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MATRIX OF LOCAL STRATEGIES
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GEOPOLITICS-LOCAL STRATEGIES
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FUNDAMENTAL QUESTIONS

• Who does generate Post-Soviet underdevelopment?
• What are the tools of a low cost energy
  imperialism in comparison with the classical
  imperialism of free trade Ru-EU? in this
  region?
• How do networks, webs, or circuits of foreign
  origin divide the new political class?
• Are members of the Post-Soviet intelligentsia
  still modernization zealots?

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CONCLUSIONS

• HOTSPOTS
• ZONES OF EASY COMPROMISES
• CONFLICT AVOIDING STRATEGIES for the local CIS
  elites
• a. no, or very few symbolic actions
• b. selective decisions, networks with
  different vectors
• c. relative, or step-by-step energy
  independence
• d.readyness to compromises in local
  social conflicts

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FUTURE ALTERNATIVE RU-EU SCENARIOS

• Neo-Finlandization
• Baltization
• Mexicanization
• Selective-competitive co-operation